Breaking down why the Toronto Maple Leafs power play sucks, and how to fix it

There is no excuse for the Toronto Maple Leafs to be running a 15% success rate on the power play. Their personnel are too talented to be anywhere near the bottom of the league, but that’s where we are at this point.

So, what’s the problem? Are the Leafs just getting some bad puck luck on the man advantage? Is it coaching decisions or a strategy issue? 

Let’s investigate to find out.

The need for a QB

The one glaring weakness of the Leafs power play is the lack of a true quarterback. They don’t have a defenceman capable of walking the line or scoring on a point shot, and this has been the glaring hole for a few seasons.

The confusing part is why it doesn’t work with Morgan Rielly. He seems to have the tools; he’s a great skater with good enough vision to find the right passes on the man-advantage. And when he really flexes his wrist shot, he can beat goalies clean. It seems like on the power play, he floats the puck to the net, looking for tips instead of shooting to score.

Even if Rielly could be an average QB, the Leafs power play could be elite again. But at this point, after such a large sample of it not working, I think the Leafs are done trying. That leaves Oliver Ekman-Larsson as the only other defensive option.

And again, it feels like OEL could be a decent point man on the power play. His vision is better than Rielly’s, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to rack up assists with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares out there with him. But again, just like Rielly, he just doesn’t fit for some reason.

I’m not sure whose fault this is. It could be that the forwards on the ice don’t use their defencemen properly. Maybe Rielly and OEL just don’t have the necessary vision and scoring touch to be top-tier power play QBs. Is the coaching strategy the problem? 

The loss of Auston Matthews

Auston Matthews scored 18 power play goals two seasons ago. This year, he has one.

His decline has been evident for two years now, and his once generational shot just isn’t the same anymore. Without it, his role on the flank of the power play goes to waste. 

Matthews used to be able to rip a wrister from the circle and beat goalies clean. The entire penalty kill was focused on him, not wanting to give him any room to shoot. He was the focal point, and for good reason. He could score from anywhere.

Now, he’s a bit of a one-timer threat, but that’s about it. Teams aren’t terrified of leaving him open near the circles, because he either passes to someone else or shoots it into the goalie’s glove. His shot is not the same, and everyone knows it.

Hopefully, this is not who Matthews is for the rest of his career. Whether it’s another surgery, a confidence boost, or whatever, he needs to find his wrister again to make this power play hum. He’s the most talented scorer on the team and needs to be a threat on the man advantage to take the focus off of Nylander and Tavares.

The five forward attempts

I’m not opposed to running five forwards on the power play, but the Leafs do not have the guys to do it. They had Matthews running the QB spot! That makes no sense at all, and of course it failed miserably.

The reason it worked last year is because Berube trusted Mitch Marner to play QB. The forward at the point needs to play like a defenceman: know when to pinch and when to bail, and be able to disrupt shorthanded attempts. No one on the Leafs can do this right now. Matthews is the most “defensively responsible,” but he does not have the passing ability to be a successful QB.

Stop trying it, it won’t work. The personnel isn’t there, and they are more likely to give up shorthanded goals (like they did in Florida) than generate scoring opportunities with Matthews running the point.

Still no excuse

Despite everything I’ve written, there is still no excuse to be this bad. The Leafs employ Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, and Matthew Knies. Those four, no matter who their defenceman is, should be good enough to run a better-than-average power play. For whatever reason, it’s not happening.

And it needs to change fast.