After a lacklustre start to the season, the Leafs seemed to be the opposite of what GM Brad Treliving and coach Craig Berube intended. The team was porous defensively and lacked abrasiveness. Both elements were supposed to be vital areas of growth, but instead looked like major disappointments.
Alas, the early days of the regular season are turbulent and tumultuous. A streak can have a more immediate effect on the standings. Perhaps, even, youthful exuberance and offensive talent have more room to flourish. By a similar thought, as the season draws longer, the timbre of play shifts towards physicality and structure.
All of a sudden, the picture looks quite different for the Leafs. While by no means perfect, the Leafs do appear to be forming a team identity. Let’s take a look at how the pieces have fallen into place, as well as how sustainable the success might be.
Defensive play
The calling card of the shared vision Treliving and Berube are aiming for comes from defensive play and physicality. The defensive play was evident last season, as the Leafs conceded a volume of possession and shot attempts from low-danger areas. While some metrics might dispute or distort that reality, the results were more evident in goals against and within goaltending statistics.
The attention to detail and effort have clearly improved for the Leafs, hitting their stride after a start that was fast and loose. The results on the scoreboard have begun to follow, as have the performance of the goaltenders. Both Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby have played the best hockey of their careers, just as Anthony Stolarz did last season.
Accomplishing this feat without their top two options on right defence is even more impressive. Troy Stecher has been a revelation, buoying the group in the meantime. Stecher might have even played his way into the regular lineup at full strength. Acquiring such a great fit at such a low cost is extreme value that will continue to pay dividends, even if Stecher is eventually pushed down the lineup.
Despite his relative scoring slump, Auston Matthews has played at an exceptional defensive level. His Selke Trophy-worthy play is undoubtedly a huge piece of the puzzle. Many will note John Tavares’ strong face-off percentage here.
Identity lines
The bottom-six has come together as well, with centres Nic Roy and Scott Laughton giving the Leafs a stout group down the middle. It took some time, but Berube has found a nice balance in their respective sets of wingers to help maximize their impact.
Roy’s checking line
Even before they took the ice together, Dakota Joshua was instantly a favourite to flank Roy. A big, hard-nosed combination seemed poised to form the foundation of a checking line that could alter the very DNA of the team. The duo struggled early on, failing to find much chemistry with each other.
Enter Bobby McMann, who has taken off as the final piece of the line. Per NHL Edge stats, both Roy and Joshua are some of the slower forwards in the league. McMann brings an unquestionable element of speed, which could be vital in supporting the Roy and Joshua duo. This allows the line to stretch the neutral zone, opening space and advancing the puck. This speed can also unlock the forecheck, keeping the puck farther from the Leafs net and perhaps creating offensive opportunities.
For now, McMann has been a great fit, also providing a bit of a shooting threat. These expanded offensive traits significantly help the primary goal of strong defensive play. The trio are embracing their roles, and Berube values these intangibles more than schematics.
Being emotionally centred, in the right headspace, and having the willingness to put in the effort required are paramount to the success of the line, but also to the identity of the overall team. Having a reliable checking line is vital to playoff success, and they will need to neutralize opponents with more individual talent.
Et tu, Laughton?
The third line is not alone in their reshaping of the Leafs, as Scott Laughton is hitting his stride in blue and white. After a tough time getting into a rhythm last season and some injury troubles to start this season, Laughton is playing his best as a Leaf. His toughness and effort bring a flair to the team, and his role as a regular penalty killer increases his icetime and overall impact.
Laughton can provide some offence, and the burden on him is lowered as a fourth-line staple. He is skilled enough to capitalize on chances, making it viable to have a more offensive winger alongside. He is stout defensively, which supports all of his potential wingers and allows for more trust from the coaching staff for the line as a whole.
While Laughton is tough, he is not the biggest. Steven Lorentz plays an honest game, and his size is a nice compliment. A fourth line must embrace its role, and physicality, energy, and defensive ability are vital.
The baseline of these qualities from Laughton and Lorentz allows Berube to be more flexible with their winger options. Skilled wingers like Nick Robertson or Matias Maccelli become viable options that might give some scoring punch. Robertson’s feistiness becomes a plus with some muscle to back him up. Calle Jarnkrok is a more defensive option that brings some speed, allowing the fourth line to match up in high-leverage situations.
Better together
Both lines are key to soaking up minutes, housing key penalty killers. They also provide enough offence to take the burden off of each other. Combined with Matthews’ defensive prowess, this allows for even more favourable matchups for the top-six. Most of all, a reliable bottom-six that exudes identity might be one of the biggest separators between regular season darlings and those bound for playoff success.
While it might not be the deepest in the league, the stability and identity of the team can be adorned more easily. Without many trade assets, this is huge for the Leafs.
Pushback
Part of the refrain of concern over the years has been the Leafs lack of toughness. In the past, attempts to bring this element have been on the outskirts of the roster, not vital enough to the team to truly change the disposition of the group overall. There is a physical aspect to this, but there is also an emotional one.
Size and defensive style only matter so much without an earnest and intense competitiveness. The team has started to show a more consistent and coherent level recently. All of a sudden, the Leafs are full of unhappy customers. Of course, bigger bodies will get the focus, like Simon Benoit, or the trio of Roy, Joshua, and McMann.
This allows smaller bodies with an edge to stand out, like the ornery Jake McCabe or the sour Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Even the dogged effort of Stecher seems to have coloured the team’s personality for the better.
All of this was evident against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday, as the Leafs handled themselves against a frustrated opponent. Contesting every inch of ice is a required criterion for championship-calibre teams. In the playoffs, against the same opponent, the battles after whistles can be included in this group.
While the Leafs do not need to win every fight or to fight every time, they do need to bring a relentless spirit of competitiveness without compromising their composure. With enough vital pieces in the fray, the Leafs do not need to insert less effective players into the lineup just to stand up for themselves. In the lawlessness and quality of the playoffs, this is all the more crucial.
For honest and for true
Is this merely a flash in the pan, or are the Leafs truly coming together to forge a stronger identity? The Leafs might never lead the league in possession stats under Berube, but they have what it takes to be more effective than some metrics might suggest. They can be a very stout defensive team, and that should be the expectation going forward.
This might even improve as the team returns to health. Stecher might help push Brandon Carlo further down the lineup, but he will help take pressure off of Chris Tanev as well. Full health is a luxurious issue, but Berube might have some interesting decisions if the blueline ever gets there. The goaltending appears to be three deep, as Hildeby continues to shine.
Perhaps William Nylander cannot keep up his absurd points pace, but some positive regression elsewhere should offset this. Finding some cohesion on the power play would go a long way as well, and quite simply, the Leafs have too much talent not to get hot at some point. While their shooting percentage as a team is fairly high in the league, some of this might be stylistic, as the Leafs are not volume shooters.
The field
While how the Leafs play is still the main factor, the landscape of the league and the Atlantic Division is worth considering. With a condensed Olympic schedule and a rising salary cap, not to mention some outstanding performances from young talents, the standings are condensed. A high volume of overtime games and the three-point system also matter here.
What does it mean for the Leafs? Every team has had imperfect moments, save perhaps for the Colorado Avalanche. It has been difficult for all teams on the road, as travel is more demanding given the schedule. In short, the lows that the Leafs experienced this year are not such a detriment as they might normally be. This might continue to be the case, though it is more likely that teams begin to separate as the season goes.
The Leafs are right in the thick of it, and so their vector of improvement is more meaningful than the garish moments along the way here. There might still be some losing skids, injuries and adversity to overcome, but the transformation and confidence the Leafs have discovered offer a lifeline. Perhaps the real Leafs have finally started to show up, and the disaster of handing the Boston Bruins a high first-round pick can wane. Even more, perhaps the team is ready to conquer the Atlantic Division and their playoff demons along the way.
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