The Toronto Maple Leafs are currently seven points out of a playoff spot and sit 20th in the league. It’s clear that the Leafs need to retool. Whether or not Brad Treliving can be trusted to retool successfully remains to be seen. But perhaps lost in the conversation is how Craig Berube fits in?
In contrast to the Sheldon Keefe teams, the Leafs noticeably play a different brand of hockey. However, it seems Berube is stubbornly trying to force a square peg into a round hole, and we’re finally seeing the ramifications this season.
With the Leafs likely missing the playoffs this season, and the Leafs (hopefully) undergoing a retool, the Leafs should also change coaches. Let’s take a look.
Auston Matthews’ deployment
Under Keefe, the Leafs were a puck-possession team and generated offence off the rush. Under Berube, the Leafs are (supposed) to be a dump–and–chase team. These systems are at the opposite end of the spectrum, and we’re seeing it play out this year.
This is noticeably reflected in how Matthews is deployed.
Table 1. Summary statistics showing Auston Matthews’ zone time by year according to NHL Edge.
| Year | Defensive Zone Time | Neutral Zone Time | Offensive Zone Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021–22 | 33.8% | 17.9% | 48.3% |
| 2022–23 | 36% | 17.3% | 46.7% |
| 2023–24 | 36.4% | 17.9% | 45.6% |
| 2024–25 | 39.4% | 17.7% | 42.9% |
| 2025–26 | 40.7% | 17.4% | 41.9% |
Table 2. Summary statistics showing Auston Matthews’ zone starts by year according to NHL Edge.
| Year | Defensive Zone Starts | Neutral Zone Starts | Offensive Zone Starts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021–22 | 25% | 34% | 41% |
| 2022–23 | 23% | 34% | 43% |
| 2023–24 | 26% | 38% | 36% |
| 2024–25 | 30% | 34% | 36% |
| 2025–26 | 33% | 30% | 37% |
For reference, for this season, Connor McDavid starts 44% of the time in the offensive zone, while starting just 24% in the defensive zone. Nathan MacKinnon is similar, starting 44% of the time in the offensive zone, while starting 25% in the defensive zone.
As we can see, under Berube, Matthews starts more in the defensive zone. He even spends more time in the defensive zone in general, likely because of his penalty killing role. At some point, we have to ask ourselves: Does this make sense?
Matthews had similar numbers to McDavid and MacKinnon in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons, and as a result, looked more offensively dangerous. Even in the year when he scored 69 goals, the 2023–24 season, Matthews had seven percent fewer defensive zone starts.
Berube is desperately trying to re-create the 2019 St. Louis Blues Stanley Cup-winning team, and is forcing Matthews to be Ryan O’Reilly. Does it make sense that your generational goal-scoring centre starts almost as much in the defensive zone as he does in the offensive zone?
The simple answer is no, it doesn’t. To win games, you need to maximize the offensive prowess of your franchise-leading goal scorer, and Berube does not do that.
Young player development
Berube has not only mishandled Matthew’s deployment, but also has not deployed rookies effectively. Berube clearly relies on veterans. Easton Cowan has seven goals, 10 assists for 17 points in 43 games, largely playing third and fourth-line minutes.
I realize Cowan has made some egregious defensive plays that changed the trajectory of some games. He has also taken penalties that resulted in a power play goals against. Afterall, he is a rookie going from junior straight to the NHL.
However, is Cowan’s deployment optimal for the team and his development? Like with how Matthews is deployed, we have to ask ourselves if this makes sense.
Cowan’s skillset is clearly destined for a top-six role. We see it with his crafty playmaking and his offensive instincts. What does Cowan get out of playing seven minutes a night on the third or fourth line, or being a healthy scratch? Clearly, Berube does not want to play Cowan in the top-six where his skillset would be best utilized.
If Berube isn’t going to play Cowan in the top-six for the Leafs, then he should be sent down to the Toronto Marlies. On the Marlies, Cowan would likely get first-line minutes, first power play unit ice-time, and be able to develop his top-six game against men. This would do more for his development than playing such few minutes for the Leafs in a role he is not best suited for.
Berube also does not want to play younger players even when the Leafs are in a free fall in the standings. Players like Jacob Quillan are called up, but not inserted into the lineup. The Leafs’ defence has been riddled with injuries and, quite frankly, porous this year. Why not call up William Villeneuve to give him a few games and rest the veteran players?
I understand not deploying these players if they did not perform well over a sizable number of games. But the lack of adjustments and the stubbornness of not adapting are why the Leafs should change coaches.
It’s a match not made in heaven
I’ve said it before that the Leafs should bring in Peter DeBoer. He has worked with superstars and knows how to utilize them correctly. The defensive issues alone should be grounds for a coaching change. Whatever the Leafs do during this retool, the Leafs are not built for Craig Berube. Or, the Leafs refuse to play how Berube wants them to play. Regardless, it seems that an unstoppable force has met an immovable object.
In all honesty, I feel it’s a bit of both. Berube will not change how he coaches because he has won a cup with his methods. Why should he? To this, I say that all good coaches adapt to the roster they have. Berube does not have a Ryan O’Reilly or Alex Pietrangelo, so why force the Leafs into a Blues-shaped hole?
On the other hand, the Leafs are better as a transition team that generates offence off the rush. I am well aware that their game under Keefe did not translate into good playoff performances. However, there has to be a coach out there who can get better results out of this roster than what we have seen under Berube this season.
Firstly, Treliving is ultimately responsible for the players on the team. Berube decides on the lineup from those players and coaches them. While Berube could have done a little different here or there, he hasn’t done bad. My belief is that the top players on a team must be good leaders and that Matthews and Nylander are NOT leaders, quite the opposite really. Matthews has been MIA for the first half of the season up to the break then, miraculously, he started playing twice as good, weeks before the Olympics! I don’t believe it’s coincidence, especially when his injury last year suddenly vanished weeks before the 4 Nations. Berube can’t do much when his top player is putting in a poor effort. With Matthews doing that, their top defenseman, Tanev, out all year and other key injures often, it’s impossible to know how good the players on this team and the lineup could have been. I believe the main problems with the Leafs for the past 10 years all stem from their core players. They seem to ignore coaching, not be leaders and have personal achievement goals that are more important. For instance, Matthews will play much better for a few weeks before the Olympics then way better for the Olympics to get his gold medal for his country (U.S.). No coach can make the top players listen unless the player is wired that way. The good teams follow coaching and are well tuned as a team because of it. As far as how Matthews is used, we know he has had recurring issues with shooting. If he’s having those or if they know he can’t be shooting so much or good then it makes sense to shift what he’s doing such as more 200 ft and more in the defensive zone. Another reason could be that the Leafs are bad at getting the puck out of their zone and need Matthews to help get it out or that they need Matthews back more because the defense is much weaker without Tanev. The main point being this isn’t necessarily on Berube.
I do agree that Berube doesn’t deserve all the heat. The players do deserve some of the blame. I’ve written before that this team needs some serious on-ice leadership and it’s noticeably lacking every year in the Matthews era. It makes me sad that young players like Macklin Celebrini already show more leadership than veteran Auston Matthews.
But at the same point, the team clearly doesn’t want to play Berube-style hockey. And rather than waste what little years we have left with this “core”, we should probably bring in a coach in which the players will actually play for (and utilize Matthews better). Unless we ship out core players for better “Berube players”, but management is so risk adverse that this is unlikely.
I believe Cowan starts fizzling out every so many games then sits for a game or so to rest, even just handling 3rd and 4th line minutes. Cowan is coming from a boys’ league to the best men’s league in the world! On top of it, he’s a smaller player. Top 6 handle way more minutes. I believe he should have started and played for some months in the AHL first but he did sort of earn an opportunity to try out the NHL and he did play well enough to stick for a while. When the Leafs decide 100% that they have no chance at the playoffs, some players will be shut down and AHL players will get some games. Good coaches always rely on the veterans over new guys with little to no track record, especially when every point matters and the going gets tougher. Rifai and Quillan have not looked good enough in their appearances.