The closing bells of the trade deadline now past, Leafs Nation finds itself quieted. Silence brings with it a call for reflection, questions of how it has come to this. An aspirational status as perennial contenders, its limited playoff success, withering away. A window slammed shut, quickly. In moments, like a game seven overtime, or a postseason press conference, but also over a decade, in the perceived ideologies of teambuilding.
While it can be easy to slide into the abyss, time rolls along. The NHL schedule will continue to churn, and the team is charged with turning things around one way or another. How can the Toronto Maple Leafs improve? How can they become a championship-calibre team? Let’s take a look at the potential paths forward.
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Matthews back on track
Adorned with gold after captaining the USA’s Olympic team, Auston Matthews is mired in a long slump. Even more, Matthews has not been close to his best the past two seasons. There might be mitigating factors, injuries included, but the truth is undeniable. This season, the worst Leafs team of his career has still shown promise when he flashes goal-scoring stretches.
Despite his struggles, he remains the centrepiece of this roster. Matthews’ contract has two seasons after this one. In short, his time with the team will dictate the entire timeline of the roster. A UFA at the end of the deal, and a no-movement clause throughout, Matthews has all the cards as the team’s captain and best player.
In an ideal world, regardless of on-ice play, there are things that both sides can give each other. Matthews will need to decide where his priorities and opportunities lead. The Leafs will have to decide the same. Honest and open lines of communication are crucial, as both will need to find a way to align.
Should the Leafs trade Matthews?
There will be one window, the 2027–28 season, where it would make sense for the Leafs to trade Matthews. Until then, the Leafs do not have their own first-round picks, and so there is virtually no value in a poor record. This comes with the stipulation that the Leafs cannot win this season’s draft lottery, or otherwise back their way into a top-five selection, which would kick their debts back a season.
Matthews is exactly the type of player one would hope to draft in a rebuild. The team will need a long-term vision to give Matthews a reason to stay. The Leafs need to upgrade their core, which is extremely difficult to do through trades or free agency. Barring a lottery win, they will not have a high pick until 2028. Any players drafted between then and now are highly unlikely to factor in as a core piece by then.
Matthews will be entering his thirties on his next deal. Players drafted after 2028 might not have time to become core contributors for the Leafs before Matthews is in his mid-thirties. It is impossible to predict that Matthews will be able to lead a team to a championship at that point, especially with his recent play.
One more year
It boils down to a simple equation: Matthews and the Leafs will have next season to try again. After that, the best time to trade Matthews is summer 2027. If there is any chance that Matthews or the Leafs wish to split, a clear answer is needed. The Leafs would be wise to let Matthews find his spot, taking as many futures as they can in return. If next season goes poorly, that might be Matthews’ best chance at having a big contract year for a new team as well.
Both sides owe it to each other to be ready for next season, all in. They will also need to be ready to be honest with each other immediately afterwards. Matthews’ injury status is vital, but also shrouded in mystery. If there is a way back to full health, it should be considered.
What else do the Leafs need?
Providing Matthews can return to form, there is a lot to work with up front. William Nylander and Matthew Knies provide some stability, and with Easton Cowan looking to join, there is a nice baseline. The biggest need is a centre who can push John Tavares for icetime, and legitimately challenge for the mantle of second line centre. Tavares might still be an effective option come Matthews’ next contract, but the Leafs will need to have another core player at centre to give their future a chance. Some added talent on the wings will not hurt, but this centre position should be a huge focus for the Leafs.
The need on the back end is greater, as the current group looks like their best days are behind them. The caveat is the health of Chris Tanev, who would undoubtedly help things if he is able to return to form. Again, better team play might make things look a lot better, but the future of the blueline is in serious doubt. The Leafs need Ben Danford to keep progressing, but they also need more help. By the time Matthews’ contract is up, it is conceivable that none of the Leafs current defencemen are able to handle top-four minutes.
The biggest need here is to add a high upside puck-moving defenceman. Even now, the Leafs could use a true power play option, but they need a defenceman who can help carry more of the play at even strength more often, at least as much.
How can they do it?
Draft and develop
Of course, a draft lottery win could help the Leafs on this timeline. A top-five pick would help alter the equation. Selecting a star in this year’s draft would likely show signs of new life, enough that the team might be seen in a new light by the 2028 offseason.
Outside of that, the Leafs will need to find other ways of jumpstarting their core. Regardless of how good a coach Craig Berube is, a new coach might provide a jolt, perhaps getting more from current players or trusting younger players. Perhaps this will go a long way towards better play, but it will not be enough to make the Leafs a contender on its own.
Future draftees will be years away from achieving this goal, and the pipeline of current prospects is definitely depleted. Big offseason developments will be crucial to altering the state of the Leafs future, particularly for Easton Cowan and Ben Danford.
Prospects closer to the NHL will be important as well, even without all-star upside. This is especially true for prospects in the AHL this season. Signs of growth from players like Noah Chadwick and Luke Haymes, as well as for goalies Dennis Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov. Scouting the Toronto Marlies will be one avenue to look for help.
Adding youth
Especially at centre and offensive defenceman, the pressure is on. If the Leafs can identify and acquire some prospects or younger players who can grow into roles over Matthews’ contract, it will be helpful. A young NHLer or a prospect needing a fresh start.
Players with high pedigree, like recently traded David Jiricek, or rumoured to be available Simon Nemec might be too costly for the Leafs. Deeper cuts will be riskier and cheaper. It would be encouraging to see the Leafs target a specific player in this less heralded pedigree, perhaps showing that they feel strongly about them.
More than they need to be plug-and-play options, adding players in their early twenties who can grow into key roles over the next season or two should be a priority.
Free agency
Goalies might be the Leafs only true area of surplus to deal from, which likely will not afford them an obvious, readymade core player. Adding core pieces via free agency is always risky, perhaps even more so with the rising salary cap.
It might be wisest for the Leafs to scour the secondary market, targeting discounts later in the process rather than going for high-priced headliners early on. Of course, there might be a high-end option worth taking a risk on, but caution should still be exercised.
A market worth exploring is the unqualified RFA market, where younger players might become available. While these players will not be coming off of strong seasons, there will be some who can benefit from a change of scenery. For example, last season, the Leafs let Pontus Holmberg go as an unqualified RFA. Now a part of a strong Tampa Bay Lightning team, not to mention an Olympian, Holmberg seems poised to help the Lightning for the next number of seasons.
Waivers
Another avenue to add players is through waivers, especially at the start of next season. While it is impossible to predict who might be available come that time, there will be plenty of options who just miss the cut for their NHL team next season.
Often, these players are left unclaimed, as teams have their own surpluses to attend to. However, it could be beneficial for the Leafs to intentionally leave themselves room for a waiver claim. It is rare that waiver claims make a lasting impression, but it is not unheard of. Targeting a younger option who might be blocked elsewhere is the best-case scenario.
Final stretch
What things can the Leafs look for or hope for in the final stretch of this regular season? Aside from the draft lottery, which will carry some intrigue, there are events worth monitoring. The biggest amongst these might be who will be the coach or general manager next season. Many are expecting Berube to be finished, but the longer he stays, the more likely it is that both are gone.
Though some might be hoping for the best lottery odds possible, it is likely better that the Leafs find a way to look better this season. Matthews returning to form will be key, but steps forward for younger players like Jacob Quillan and Easton Cowan will be encouraging. Moreover, progress for this in the AHL or other leagues is welcomed as well.
The offseason will hold opportunities to add players through the various methods discussed above. In all likelihood, the Leafs will need one win by each method to truly turn things around. Without much luxury of abundance in any area, the Leafs will need a diverse portfolio to navigate the narrow path ahead.
The next season might sway the future of the franchise, but the Leafs should not be afraid to pursue their interests wholeheartedly. If, in a year’s time, the Leafs find themselves in a similarly bleak scenario, they should seriously consider a deeper reset of their timeline.
Some harsh criticism falls upon GM Brad Treliving, overseeing the worst season of the Matthews era Leafs, but he also oversaw one of the best ones. If his job was to give the team one last hurrah, he might have done exactly that. Whether or not he is the right GM to oversee a new era is another question. The Leafs need to get younger and more talented.
