A year ago, the Toronto Maple Leafs were wondering who they would play in the first round as the number one seed in the Atlantic Division. Fast forward to the present day, and Leafs fans are screaming for a tank for the No. 1 draft pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. They are counting on the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery odds to help them out.
Not one person at the beginning of the season could have predicted the outcome for this year’s Maple Leafs squad. The additions of Nic Roy, Dakota Joshua, and Mattias Maccelli were brought in to fill the Mitch Marner void, but that has not been the case.
Sitting dead last in the Atlantic Division and 15th in the entire Eastern Conference ahead of the struggling New York Rangers, the Leafs could have the potential to finish in the bottom five of the league, which includes teams such as the Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames, Chicago Blackhawks, Rangers, St. Louis Blues, Winnipeg Jets, and New Jersey Devils, all of whom are struggling this season. But if they don’t get a top-five pick, their first-rounder goes to the Boston Bruins.
The current odds boards have the Canucks as the most likely team to land the first overall pick, as they sit comfortably as the worst team in the NHL this season.
But where do the Leafs actually stand?
How the NHL Draft Lottery works
Since 2021, the NHL Draft Lottery has determined the first two selections in every draft. The bottom 11 teams in the league are eligible to win the lottery, and teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots in the draft.
The rule becomes important when looking at the Leafs’ situation. If they finish outside the bottom 11, they would be ineligible to win the lottery entirely. If they finish between the 12th and 16th spots, their best possible outcome would be moving up 10 spots in the draft.
The lottery itself is weighted, meaning the worse a team finishes in the standings, the better odds they have of winning the first overall pick. This year, the Canucks will most likely clinch last in the NHL, giving them the best chance of a first overall pick, but in some cases, like with the New York Islanders last year, a team projected in 10th position picked first overall.
The Leafs, sitting in seventh last at the moment, have about a 13% chance of landing a top two pick. If they don’t, their pick will be heading to Boston.
What would Toronto’s odds look like?
If the Leafs were to finish in the bottom five, their odds of winning the first overall pick would likely fall somewhere between eight and nine per cent, based on the current structure of the lottery. Their odds of keeping a top-five pick, though, would be much higher. In the lottery, fifth place has a 40% chance of finishing with a top-five pick.
While those odds are far from guaranteed, they would still give the Leafs a legitimate shot at landing the first pick and staying in the top five. However, if Toronto finishes closer to 10th or 11th at the bottom, the odds decrease dramatically to a few per cent.
This is why some real fans have embraced the idea of a late-season tank. They are not good enough to make the playoffs, and without their captain, Auston Matthews, for the rest of the year, let’s not let this season go to waste. Every loss would improve the Leafs’ lottery position.
The reality of the tank conversation
In the NHL, tanking is easier said than done. Many teams, including coaching staff, never want to play to lose; they play for contracts, pride, and their jobs. The players don’t hype themselves up in the locker room beforehand and wish to lose; every team wants to win every game.
Even if the Leafs finish near the bottom, the lottery is unpredictable. Teams with the best odds miss out, as the Anaheim Ducks have for many seasons, while clubs like the Islanders can jump up the board. For Leafs fans hoping for a franchise-altering pick like projected first overall Gavin McKenna, the path to first remains unlikely but not an impossible feat.
And in a season with plenty of upsets and surprises, the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery may just deliver one more.
