Playoff hopes were already looking bleak for the Toronto Maple Leafs heading into the final stretch of the 2025–26 NHL season, but with the season-ending injury to star captain Auston Matthews on March 12, the last hopes have all but faded for the once-solid contenders.
Indeed, fans had hoped that, despite the offseason departure of right winger Mitch Marner, the team would still be able to put a playoff-level product together on the ice, but unfortunately, that simply wasn’t the case this season. Whether it was injuries, trade speculation, or just poor overall play, it has resulted in the Leafs being outside of the playoff picture for the first time since 2015–16.
With much uncertainty now in the air regarding the future of this current Leafs core, there is one potential silver lining: the 2026 NHL Draft. While the Leafs’ first-round pick this year does belong to the Boston Bruins—acquired by Boston in the trade that sent Brandon Carlo to Toronto—the pick is top-five protected.
This top-five protection element adds some intrigue to the Leafs’ remaining regular-season games, as if they lose enough games down the stretch, they will have an increased chance of getting a top pick, or even, if the hockey gods shine upon them, a shot at nabbing the consensus No. 1 prospect, Gavin McKenna.
As they sit right now, the Leafs don’t have the best odds of ending up in the top five, according to tankathon.com’s draft-lottery odds, and there are currently six other NHL teams below the Leafs in the standings. So who are the teams below the Leafs, and can Toronto fall into the bottom five? Let’s discuss that.
Looking at the league’s basement
Toronto currently has the seventh-worst record in the NHL, but below them are a mix of rebuilding squads like the Chicago Blackhawks and Calgary Flames, and strong groups that greatly underachieved, like the Winnipeg Jets. It likely won’t be possible for the Leafs to fall to the bottom of the league’s basement with just 13 games remaining for the team, given that the league’s worst team, the Vancouver Canucks, has just 50 standings points compared to the Toronto’s 71.
Even a team like the Flames (63 points) is unlikely to pass the Leafs in the standings, save for the Leafs being ice cold in the remaining games, or the Flames becoming red hot down the stretch. If the Leafs are to move down in the standings, it will probably wind up being the New York Rangers (64 points), the Blackhawks (64 points), the St. Louis Blues (65 points) or the Jets (67 points) that pass them. But even then, to get a solid chance at a top-five pick, the Leafs will have to fully commit to the tank.
What will it take?
Apart from losing in general, there are two key games that will impact Toronto’s chances of keeping their first-rounder: their games against the Rangers on March 25 and the Blues on March 28. If the Leafs lose both of these games, that’s no points for them and two points for the two of the teams below them.
However, even with these two key games in mind, and simply losing aside, a lot will be out of the Leafs’ control. As previously mentioned, teams lower in the standings seeing late-season success will play a large factor, mainly success against teams that are above the Leafs in the standings, but not too close either. And that’s not even taking into account that the teams below Toronto still have three to four games against one another still to go in some cases, meaning a win for one team, while a positive for the Leafs, will also put the losing team that much further away.
For the Leafs to get a top-five pick in the 2026 draft, or a first-rounder in general, for that matter, a lot of things have to line up. If things work out, the team could obtain a franchise-altering prospect this summer. If not, Brad Treliving and company will need to figure out what the next steps are for the storied franchise.
There are also 5 teams tied or 1 point ahead of the Leafs that could fall lower than them! To drop to 5th right now, they would need to get 7 points less than the team in 5th with only 12 games to go. Almost impossible! Best is for them to play as well as they can and hopefully get out of the bottom 10! Losing Marner was a huge hit because the Leafs didn’t get comparable back in the “trade” due to the situation. Since Knies got a massive raise, they also didn’t have the cap to replace Marner with someone at least acceptable on 1RW. Combined with their best defenseman, Tanev, being out almost the entire season, Matthews being MIA the first 40+ games, Tavares 2C needing replacement to shift to wing, Nylander injured 17 games and lots of other injuries, the Leafs didn’t have a hope this year!