The Toronto Maple Leafs are at a crossroads, and the team may need to consider superstar Auston Matthews‘ long-term future with the team, especially if he shows any signs of wanting to leave when his contract expires.
The 28-year-old star centre is entering the final two years of his four-year, $13.25M AAV contract, and there has to be a conversation around whether or not the team can keep him beyond his current deal.
Legendary former NHL defenceman Chris Pronger recently spoke on Matthews’ future with the Leafs, believing that the two sides are “on a clock” and that the team needs to have conversations with their captain and his agent to determine the future outlook.
Leafs need to know Matthews’ intentions
Pronger is correct. For the Maple Leafs to move forward, in whichever direction it may be, the team categorically needs to know what Matthews’ thoughts are on his future with the team.
It’s clear that stars like Matthews and even William Nylander won’t want to stick around if the team rebuilds, but what happens if the retooling that will inevitably happen this summer doesn’t pan out? It is a great unknown as to how the Leafs will look in 2026-27, so early talks with the star centre need to take place.
This way, the team, with a new general manager and potentially a new head coach, can make a plan and work in tandem with their captain. This could outline what both parties agree to, depending on certain criteria, such as whether or not the Leafs are firmly back in the playoff race or not.
If the Leafs’ retool goes to plan, some key new additions could turn around fortunes and have the team firmly placed to compete once again, which would undoubtedly give Matthews hope for the future and incentive to stick around as long as possible.
He has a No-Move Clause for a reason. He wants to control his future, so he won’t be demanding a trade so easily, especially if the team returns to an upward trajectory. If, though, things do not go so well, then it could be reasonable to expect Matthews to want to leave.
Leafs may need to deal Matthews earlier to maximize return
For the Toronto Maple Leafs, if the retool does not go as planned, having Matthews be open to a trade would likely benefit the team the most.
The Leafs got the bare minimum return for Mitch Marner last summer when he signed a new deal, and was immediately traded to the Vegas Golden Knights, seeing Nic Roy sent the other way. Roy was then offloaded at the deadline for a conditional first-round pick and a fifth-round pick from the Colorado Avalanche.
Losing Matthews in similar circumstances cannot be accepted by whoever takes over from Brad Treliving. If the team’s retool isn’t what it’s hoped to be, Matthews may already signal his intent to leave, and it would make most sense for both parties to work together to find a trade package that works for both sides.
Losing Matthews would likely usher in a full rebuild, as it would be a clear signal that a new direction is needed, so landing as many assets in return for the team’s all-time top goalscorer needs to be the priority should there be any hint that he wants out.
This could be as early as during the 2026–27 season. If the Leafs are on the outside looking in on the playoffs, it may serve them well to work with him to find a deal ahead of the trade deadline. If the team is going to lose him and isn’t likely to be competitive enough in his final contract year, then it may be better to cut losses and get the biggest return possible.
A team acquiring Matthews for the playoffs in 2026–27 and a full 2027–28 season would likely give up a significant package compared to a team simply taking him for one season after next year. It would also give Matthews time to see if he likes his new environment enough to consider signing an extension, and give him two chances at the cup if he can join a legitimate contender.
Potential pitfalls of trading Matthews
Like with everything in life, trading Auston Matthews would certainly come with its challenges.
Firstly, the idea of trading one of the greatest players in franchise history is something that fans will find difficult to accept. Seeing him leave and win a cup somewhere would be yet another disappointment this fanbase would have to endure. Also, what if the retool doesn’t go well next year but shows enough promise that things could go well in 2027–28?
Trading Matthews would be a clear sign that the team’s hierarchy is throwing in the towel on this particular era, and it could be a few years of rebuilding and development before the Leafs are in a position to contend for the cup once again.
There’s also the consideration that the retooling goes well, but Matthews still wants to leave in 2028. The great hope in Toronto in this scenario would obviously be that Connor McDavid would consider coming back home if the team has a roster that can compete but just needs something extra to tip it over the edge.
It’s unlikely to happen, but that would be the only situation where losing Matthews to free agency would be palatable.
There’s also Matthews’ significant contract, which will be difficult for many teams to accommodate. Finding the right trade partner, who can also take on $13.5M in cap hit, will be a tall order for the Leafs.
There are many unknowns at this stage of the year, but looking to the future can’t hurt the Toronto Maple Leafs, who can’t afford to lose such a cornerstone player for nothing. Letting Matthews walk in free agency would be an injustice, and the team’s management needs to take every step it can to ensure the future is secure, whether Matthews is here or not.
