When former General Manager Brad Treliving and MLSE decided that the Leafs were sellers at this year’s trade deadline, it was a welcoming sign. This year has gone off the rails, and the team was not in the playoff mix. At least recoup some assets and try again next year.
However, between making this decision too late and waiting too long to make deals, the trade deadline for the Leafs was an absolute bust. This likely led to Treliving’s dismissal. With five games left, the only option is to tank, right?
In this article, let’s look at some of the reasons why tanking might not work out for the Leafs as expected.
Finishing in the bottom five is slim
When looking at the standings, the Leafs are three points from 28th place. It’s unlikely that the Leafs will lose every single remaining game, so let’s say the Leafs go 2–3–0. They are 4–4–2 in their last 10 games, so this is not that unreasonable.
Is this likely enough to finish in the bottom five? The Leafs would have to pass the Florida Panthers, who sit two points behind them with the same number of games played. The Leafs would also have to pass the Seattle Kraken, who sit three points behind them with six games left.
It’s possible. I am sure if the Leafs really “tried,” they could fall below these two teams. However, the issue becomes the draft lottery. Even if the Leafs finish fifth last, there is no guarantee that they would pick fifth overall and could be knocked out of the bottom five. However, finishing third last guarantees the Leafs a top-five pick.
To finish third last, they would have to pass the New York Rangers, who have played one more game than the Leafs, and sit with 75 points. The Leafs would also have to pass the Calgary Flames, who sit 30th with 73 points, with five games remaining.
For me, this is where it becomes unlikely. Even if the Leafs only won once in their remaining games, they would finish with 80 points. The Flames would need to win three of their remaining five games to pass the Leafs. It is unlikely that the Leafs will pass the Calgary Flames in the standings.
The opportunity cost
On their current trajectory, it’s more likely that the Leafs will finish 6th or 7th, in which case the Boston Bruins still get a good pick. If the Leafs finish the year with 3–2–0, or even 2–2–1, they would finish with 83–84 points. The Leafs will still likely finish near 21st or 22nd. But at least it is not surrendering the sixth overall pick to the Bruins.
The reality is that this team is better than what we have seen this season. But they’re also not so bad to land in the bottom-five, but not much better to finish outside the bottom-10. Classic definition of mid.
That being said, the biggest question mark for the next two years is the health of Auston Matthews. Since scoring 69 goals, Matthews has had two sub-par seasons for his standards. Given his health, there’s also the very real possibility that the Leafs are worse next year and the year after, possibly a bottom-five team.
If they surrender their pick this year and next year, the Leafs are set up to rebuild in 2028 if Matthews is too injured or wants to be traded to a contender. Looking at it through this lens, it makes sense for the Leafs to finish as high as possible this year.
For me, I would rather the Leafs play their prospects like William Villeneuve and continue to develop players like Easton Cowan and Jacob Quillan. If the Leafs end up “tanking” in the process, it is what it is. Otherwise, give it to the hungry players who still have something to play for, instead of the lifeless hockey we have seen in the last few months.
The elephant in the room
Being lost in this tank vs anti tank discussion is the fact that Keith Pelley needs to do his job. According to Pelley at his press conference last week, the Leafs are going to hire a president and a general manager, and are going to start looking at candidates. The Leafs are cutting it close with the draft lottery only a month away, and the NHL draft happening in two and a half months.
With the Leafs’ window almost closed, and an argument could be made that it is already closed, these two hires are going to define Pelley’s legacy as the CEO of MLSE. Depending on how Matthews recovers, perhaps you should consider moving him. Either way, the Leafs need to knock these two hires out of the park.
It’s also obvious that Craig Berube will be let go after the season is over. The longer that the Leafs take to appoint a President and general manager, the list of qualified coaching candidates shrinks. The New York Islanders fired their head coach, Patrick Roy, and just as quickly hired Pete Deboer.
Another good coaching candidate is Bruce Cassidy, who the Vegas Golden Knights recently let go. I think Cassidy would be a great hire for this roster and would be able to pull out the strengths within the roster that Berube cannot or refuses to.
Of course, there are other candidates like Manny Malhotra. However, the longer the Leafs go without higher management in place, Cassidy or Malhotra could be hired by another team. Pelley needs to fix the front office and needs to act sooner, rather than later. I argue this is more important than the Leafs trying to finish in the bottom five.
But what do you think? Leave a comment down below!
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Agreed that POHO and GM is paramount but, at the same time, it’s going to take longer and should because Pelley knows little to nothing about hockey and is handling something like 5 pro teams! I can’t remember the Leafs doing this poorly in any season for the last 35 years except the one where they were basically purposely tanking to get a top pick and ended up with Matthews (unfortunately). As far as this deadline, the Leafs traded away 3 players. How many teams traded away more than that? They were the correct players as 2 were UFA and one fetched much more than expected. Realize, Laughton came as a 3C with retention, term and certain stats including a production history. He left as a 4C, no retention, no term UFA rental with poorer production. Both him and McMann were poor in last year’s playoffs and the only reason their new team is acquiring them is for this playoffs! So then, really, how much do you think they’re worth?! Laughton is a 2nd if the Kings make the playoffs. If not, he was probably about as bad for them as he was most of the time for the Leafs! So, possibly they could have got a little more for each of them but not much more.