The Toronto Maple Leafs have not played a more important game than tonight’s against the Florida Panthers all year. There’s no way around it: tonight will massively shift Toronto’s odds of finishing in the bottom five and keeping their pick. If they win, chances are our pick goes to Boston.
The Leafs haven’t been in this situation for a decade. Usually, their important games are in the playoffs (usually Game 7 of Round 1). But tonight, just like 2016, the goal is to lose.
For those that don’t know, the Boston Bruins own the Leafs first round pick–unless that pick ends up in the top five. If it does, Toronto gets to keep it. So, the Leafs are battling to keep said pick by finishing as low in the standings as possible.
The lottery will decide the pick’s fate, but the farther down the Leafs fall, the higher their chances of keeping the pick.
The standings
As of right now, the Leafs and Panthers are tied with 78 points in 79 games. The St. Louis Blues are also at 78 points, but with one more game remaining. Behind Toronto and Florida are the Seattle Kraken, with 77 points in 78 games.
Seattle sits in fifth last. The Leafs are sixth. A win tonight would leapfrog the Leafs over the Panthers and Blues all the way up to eighth last, almost guaranteeing Boston gets Toronto’s pick.
Tonight, Seattle also plays the Calgary Flames. They are actually favourites in this game, as Calgary is comfortably third last in the league. A Kraken win would be huge, especially if the Leafs end up losing. That would push them over Toronto and into sixth last; the Leafs into fifth.
Needless to say, tonight is massive. A win, and the Leafs leapfrog at least one team. A loss, and a Kraken win, and the Leafs are down to fifth last.
The lottery odds
Now, the bigger problem is the lottery. Even if the Leafs sneak into fifth last, the chances of them receiving a top-five pick are actually only 41.9%.
If they stay in sixth last, this chance drops to 15.4%/.
So even though fifth last doesn’t guarantee anything, the odds shift from fifth to sixth are massive. That’s why tonight is so important.
If everything goes wrong and the Leafs finish eighth last, their chances of landing a top-five pick are 12.4%. Eighth isn’t too much different than sixth.
Basically, the Leafs need to drop as low as possible and pray to the Hockey Gods that the lottery balls fall their way. The disastrous Brandon Carlo trade has led to this, but tonight is a must-lose.
Big game players
Luckily for the Leafs, they’ve lost just about every important game in the last 10 years. Plenty of these games have even been against Florida.
So tonight, as much as we love the Leafs, we should be cheering for the Panthers (that felt disgusting to write). Also, go Kraken.
Please Toronto, just lose.
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