In the Auston Matthews era, the Toronto Maples Leafs have finished outside the top 10 in power play percentage once: during the 2020–21 shortened season. With Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares, their special teams have been a huge strength. In the regular season, at least.
A big part of their postseason failures has been their power play. Only once, in 2017–18, has it improved in the playoffs. Before last year, the power play had run at below 20% for four straight postseason runs.
Here’s how they’ve looked on the man advantage since 2016–17, according to ESPN:
| Season | Regular Season Power Play Percentage | Regular Season Power Play Rank | Playoff Power Play Percentage | Percent Change in the Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023–24 | 26.0 | 5 | TBD | TBD |
| 2022–23 | 26.0 | 2 | 25.0 | -1.0 |
| 2021–22 | 27.3 | 1 | 14.3 | -13.0 |
| 2020–21 | 20.0 | 16 | 13.0 | -7.0 |
| 2019–20 | 23.1 | 6 | 15.4 | -7.7 |
| 2018–19 | 21.8 | 8 | 18.8 | -3 |
| 2017–18 | 24.9 | 2 | 26.7 | 1.8 |
| 2016–17 | 23.8 | 2 | 16.7 | -7.1 |
Whether it’s nerves, a mental block, or the ice tightening up in the playoffs, something happens to the Leafs’ stars when it matters most. The consistently top-end man advantage turns close to league-worst once Game 83 starts.
The cold streak has come early
In February, Toronto’s power play went crazy. They went 14-for-28, 15% better than anyone else during the month and led in total goals on the man advantage. They looked unstoppable, heating up at the right time and progressing toward the end of the season.
But in March, it’s felt like the playoffs came early. The Leafs have gone 3-for-30, tied for third worst in the league. The puck’s stopped moving, and slot chances have disappeared completely.
Now, Marner has been gone for five of the Leafs’ nine games in March with a high-ankle sprain, which hurts. Marner finished with 36 power play points last year and is easily Toronto’s best passer. But with Matthews, Nylander, and Tavares all healthy and playing, there’s no excuse for going 10% with the man advantage.
There are only 14 games until the playoffs, and who knows how many Marner will play in. Recently, Timothy Liljegren has been quarterbacking the top unit instead of Morgan Rielly, but it’s not making a difference. They’re going to have to figure something out in the next month if they want any shot of making a run.
A look back at past Stanley Cup winners
So the Leafs historically get worse on the power play in the playoffs, and it looks like the pattern will continue this year. What does it mean?
Here are the last seven cup winners and their power play stats, again from ESPN:
| Season | Team | Regular Season Power Play Percentage | Playoff Power Play Percentage | Percent Change in the Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022–23 | Vegas Golden Knights | 20.3 | 21.9 | 1.6 |
| 2021–22 | Colorado Avalanche | 24 | 32.8 | 8.8 |
| 2020–21 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 22.3 | 32.4 | 10.1 |
| 2019–20 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 23.2 | 22.7 | -0.5 |
| 2018–19 | St. Louis Blues | 21.1 | 16.3 | -4.8 |
| 2017–18 | Washington Capitals | 22.5 | 29.3 | 6.8 |
| 2016–17 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 23.1 | 20.5 | -2.6 |
Honestly, the results aren’t as bad as I thought they’d be. Vegas, Tampa in 2019–20 and St. Louis all won with mediocre results. So did the Penguins.
None of them were as bad as the Leafs have been, but it’s encouraging Toronto doesn’t need to go over 30% if they want a chance at the Cup. With the talent they have, though, Colorado and 2020–21 Tampa Bay should be the models.
There’s no reason the Leafs can’t pull together a nice run of 30% on the man advantage in the playoffs. They’ve consistently been at the same levels as the Lightning and Avalanche during the regular season. They just can’t get it done when it matters.
Last year’s run
When the Leafs beat Tampa Bay in the first round last year, it looked like maybe they’d turned a corner. They scored six goals on the man advantage in the series, going 6–21, good for 29%. They turned Tampa’s game against them and actually outscored the Lightning 6–5 on the power play in the series.
But things went back to normal against the Florida Panthers in the second round. In the five-game series, the Leafs’ power play only lit the lamp twice on 11 attempts. Game 1 was all too familiar, as Toronto started the series 0-for-4 on the man advantage.
Can it really be as simple as when the Leafs’ power play plays well, they win?
With four Game 7 losses in the last six years, it just might be. Toronto has lost by the slimmest of margins since Matthews broke into the league, and a good power play might well have made the difference in all of those series.
Looking forward, it’s a must for the Leafs to figure out their god-awful power play heading into Round 1. Their work is already cut out for them going up against the Boston Bruins or Florida Panthers, and without a man advantage firing on all cylinders, they might not see the second round.
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