The time is right now for the Toronto Maple Leafs to exercise their playoff demons. They won’t get a better shot than tonight, and if they lose, they probably won’t get another shot anyway.
A lot hangs in the balance. With a win, the Leafs will have advanced to the second round for two years in a row, and more importantly, finally won a Game 7 against Boston.
With a loss, though, things could get ugly. Will the Core 4 survive another first-round exit? Will Brendan Shanahan get axed? Surely Sheldon Keefe wouldn’t be back next year.
But this is the best chance this group has had to rid themselves of their demons. A Game 7, in TD Garden, after coming back from a 3–1 series deficit to the Boston Bruins. It couldn’t be more perfect. All they have to do is win.
This Boston Bruins team looks bad
There’s no excuse for the Leafs to blow this one. Toronto has the better roster, has played better at 5v5, and has all the momentum heading into tonight. And for the first time, all of the pressure is on the Bruins. If they become the first team to choke a 3–1 series lead two years in a row, big things could be coming to Boston.
But we all know the Leafs, and it would be a shock to no one if they came out and dropped a dud like they did in Game 4.
Either way, Toronto has been the better team so far, and have looked especially good the last two contests even without Auston Matthews. They’ve created more scoring chances, played almost perfect defence, and Joseph Woll has been nothing short of amazing.
Other than David Pastrnak, Boston simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower of a contender. Brad Marchand has put up his points, but hasn’t looked like a threat for a lot of the series. After those two, there isn’t much. Jake DeBrusk is a Leaf killer for sure, but he doesn’t have a point in three straight.
With Boston’s lack of offence, Toronto’s game plan is simple. Play a tight structure and don’t give up any Grade-A chances. Be patient, and count on the stars to capitalize when the time comes.
And that’s exactly what they’ve done. Boston just doesn’t have the weapons to break a system unless Pastrnak takes over. And he’s got to be dealing with an injury or something. The Leafs made it a priority to be physical with him, and he hasn’t looked like himself at all. He could easily score three and end the Leafs season, but he’s done nothing to make me believe he will.
The only area of play Boston has won at 5v5 has been goaltending. Jeremy Swayman is a monster, and if the Bruins win the series he’ll be the reason why.
But man, this is not the same Bruins team as 2013, 2018, or 2019. For the first time against Boston, the Leafs should win Game 7.
The special teams need to wake up
The Leafs’ special teams percentage is a combined 65%. That is astronomically bad, and it’s honestly crazy there’s even going to be a Game 7 with those numbers.
A 5% power play and 60% penalty kill is embarrassing. If the Leafs move on, they won’t beat anyone else with the special teams the way they are.
And this has been an issue forever, but never this bad. In the Matthews era, the power play has improved in the postseason once in seven tries, all the way back in 2017–18. For some reason, they can’t get anything going when it matters.
They aren’t generating chances, either. It’s not like they’re getting goalied, hitting posts or getting unlucky. No, not even close. They can’t win a faceoff, can’t enter the zone, and can’t establish any sort of pressure. Watching Morgan Rielly drop pass when given a clear path into the zone in Game 6 was the sum of it all.
Keefe needs to shake it up, because it is not even close. We’ve seen Boston split their units up and have great success (6–15 in the series) and Toronto should do the same. The four-minute power play in Game 6 should be the last straw. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a worse man advantage.
This series would be over if the special teams weren’t so bad. The Leafs are lucky to be here with the numbers the way they are, but a breakout would be perfect in Game 7.
It all comes down to this
To say tonight is massive, for both teams, would be an understatement. The entire makeup of Toronto’s roster could change with a loss, and their highest-ranking executive is already on the hot seat.
But with a win, the curse might be over.
Everyone, including me, wrote off the Leafs after Game 4 (how could we not), but they’ve shown more heart in this series than they have in the Matthews era. And looking back, it was always going to end in seven. That should’ve been obvious.
The question now is what Leafs team we’re going to see tonight. In Game 7s past, Toronto have looked nervous, and have been so easy to shut down. But I don’t think we’ve seen Leafs teams like we saw in Games 5 and 6 before. And we definitely haven’t gone into a winner-take-all game where the pressure is on the other team.
It seriously couldn’t have been set up better. The storylines write themselves.
Whoever wins gets a brutal matchup against the Florida Panthers, but who knows what these Leafs can do with the monkey finally off their back.
