Ben Danford is in a curious position. If he plays in the AHL next season, he will be considered a rookie. With that said he has already been a regular member of a Calder Cup-winning blueline. While there is no guarantee that he sees NHL action this season, Danford might well find himself instrumental in the Leafs season. Though he is undoubtedly a piece of the Leafs future, let’s take a closer look at what might be expected of Danford this coming season.
Profile
A defensive right-shot defenceman, Danford is well known as one of the Leafs better prospects. Though most prospects earn their reputation through gaudy scoring totals, Danford plays a game that will not impress by this standard. Fans watching from afar would be misinterpreting Danford’s game if they measured him based on point totals.
Instead, ice time and role might be better ways to measure Danford’s progression. From this vantage, coaches have consistently shown how highly they think of Danford. A spot on Canada’s U20 World Junior team is always hard to come by. The Marlies held out most of their younger defencemen on their playoff run, yet Danford found himself a staple of the lineup. Even more, there were rave reviews for Danford’s mature game at last season’s training camp.
Fans with a scouting eye might be able to identify some of Danford’s strengths. These often manifest in subtleties: a maintained gap defending the rush, taking a hit to make a smart chip along the boards to beat a forecheck, or a shot block or a box out at the net front. Danford is smart enough to read the play, a strong enough skater to beat opponents to spots, and physically strong enough to handle these ensuing battles.
Progress
At 20 years old and without a full season of professional experience, the Leafs plan is almost certainly to give Danford a season playing top minutes in the AHL. The Leafs depth might facilitate this decision as well, at least to start the season. Though he handled the AHL trade layoffs extremely well, Danford should still be given some time to make the necessary adjustments going from junior hockey to professional hockey.
Still, Danford will be a hot topic at training camp and through the preseason. The nature of being one of the Leafs best prospects will do a lot of that work on its own. Still, given his track record, Danford should be impressive in his own right. Though his AHL head coach John Gruden is now on the Leafs staff, Danford will have to win over head coach Jim Hiller and the rest of the group.
Getting some valuable experience last season should have Danford highly motivated this offseason. He will have some idea of higher-level hockey, which should help him understand which areas of his game and his body need improvement. Although there are likely a bunch of names ahead of him on the depth chart, Danford can make up a lot of ground in a short time.
The injury questions ahead of him might be a motivator as well. Chris Tanev plays a similar role to Danford, a defensive presence on the right side. While Tanev’s strong passing abilities are aspirational, Danford might have more juice in his skating. Regardless, Tanev is a hugely important player for the Leafs, but has incurred an increasing number of injuries in recent years. The undersized defensive right shot Troy Stecher also has a history of injuries as well.
With a strong training camp and a huge role on the Marlies blueline, it is not difficult to imagine the opportunity for a midseason call-up. Naturally, Danford’s performance will be a key factor in whether he is the right choice, but being waiver-exempt might play into his hand.
Precedent
Player comparisons can be helpful, even if it is by nature a flawed exercise. It might be useful to compare Danford to another recent player of a similar skill set. Optimistically, Brock Faber of the Minnesota Wild is an interesting case study.
Though he was a staple of the Americans’ U20 World Junior lineup, Faber’s less-than-impressive scoring totals had many scratching their heads when he was traded for Kevin Fiala. Faber would spend the next season, his age-20 season, in the NCAA before getting a two-game audition with the Wild to end the year. It was at age 21 that Faber was dropped into a top-four role for the Wild, quickly becoming known as a solid defensive presence. It is true that Faber did eventually show some offensive upside, but truthfully that materialized at higher levels. His NCAA production spiked in his age-20 season, and his NHL totals have been beyond that.
While it does not appear that Danford has the same level of offensive upside, there is at least some precedent for a young, right-shot, defensive defenceman to make a huge NHL impact at a young age. That said, it might still be a bit early to expect Danford to jump into such a role this season. The comparison is not one-to-one, but rather sets the expectation that Danford need not be forced into NHL action before he is ready. Even if a full-time NHL role comes in the 2027–28 season, it will still be an early start to a promising young NHL career.
This season?
Danford’s status as a high-level prospect and a potential core piece of the Leafs is not in doubt. However, a path to impacting the Leafs on the ice this season is much more questionable. It will undoubtedly require strong play and progression from Danford himself, but it will likely also require some unfortunate luck on the Leafs side of things.
As mentioned, injuries would likely play a huge role in Danford getting into the Leafs lineup. If one of Tanev or Stecher is injured, it might not be enough to force the Leafs hand into an early promotion. If both are injured, the Leafs will need to prioritize defensive help on the right side. Right-shot Marlies like William Villeneuve and Cole McWard offer more offensive play styles, but are likely ahead of Danford on the depth chart if all things are equal.
Philippe Myers has almost all the physical tools to be effective, but is too inconsistent to hold down a regular NHL spot. Still, he has been effective in short stints at times. How the Leafs new coaching staff is able to harness Myers will play a big role, though it is possible that Danford is able to outplay Myers outright.
The Leafs could also call up a more experienced left shot and have a defenceman play their weak side. Positional flexibility for Oliver Ekman-Larsson would play a big part here. Marshall Rifai and Dakota Mermis should be capable of fitting into the Leafs blueline on a temporary basis, leaving Danford to continue developing at his own pace.
Ultimately, this is the takeaway. Although there is plenty to like about Danford’s upside, the Leafs are in a strong position not to force him into the NHL before he is ready. Regardless of whether he sees any NHL action this season, Danford will be a player that many across the fanbase keep tabs on. Again, instead of monitoring his offensive output, fans should track where he plays in the Marlies lineup to get a sense of how he is progressing. The likely outcome is that Danford spends the season as one of the Marlies top defencemen and is deployed in high-leverage defensive situations.
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