The more things change, the more they stay the same. Once again the Leafs are left with only platitudes and parables, the fan base left grasping at air, quarrelling with locker clean-out quotes after another first round playoff loss. Through the years, the Leafs have been steadfast in their support of their core, but the mood across the fan base has gradually shifted toward frustration and even apathy. More and more fans have joined a chorus hoping for drastic changes.
The subtext here is that, in the eyes of most, the only thing that would qualify as dramatic change is breaking up “the core four”. The ethos of the Brendan Shanahan era has been simplified down to this concept; Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander on the same team. With each passing year, the calls for change grow, extending upwards through the organization. At this point, the calls have made their way all the way up to Shanahan’s office. A growing number of fans have added him to the proverbial hit list.
Can the Leafs win with the core four? Can the team be fundamentally improved while they are on the roster? Or is there a path to glory available with the core four intact?
A quick reality clause
As all four players, as well as Morgan Rielly, have clauses in their contracts that prevent movement, the cold truth for the change mob is that it really is not up to the Leafs to decide on who goes. There is a chance that one or more of these players decide they want to try to force their way out, but virtually every piece of evidence points to them wanting to stay. Freshly extended, it is very unlikely that Matthews or Nylander will be on the way out. With no other legitimate top pair defencemen, trading Rielly hardly seems like something the Leafs would be considering. As UFAs at the end of the 2024–25 season, the focus shifts to Marner and Tavares.
Marner is clearly the main trade target, spurring imaginations within the Leafs fan base as much as beyond it. Essentially, there are 3 possibilities; a trade this summer to a team of Marner’s choice, a trip to unrestricted free agency, or an extension with the Leafs.
Tavares’ play has indisputably fallen off, but he is still a useful player who very intentionally chose to come to Toronto. Although things change, there is not much chance that Tavares will be looking for a new locale. More ambitious tactics might include buying out Tavares, but the value most probably lies in convincing Tavares to extend in Toronto to a team friendly deal.
Some misnomers
Although it is catchy, the moniker of “the core four” is misleading. The players involved are clearly identifiable, but why? Among league-wide cap hits for the 2023–24 season, Matthews ranks fourth, Tavares tied for seventh, Marner right behind in ninth, while Rielly ranks 82nd and Nylander 98th. Players such as Nazem Kadri, Clayton Keller, Anders Lee, and even Kevin Hayes cost more against the cap than Nylander did this past season.
Yes, Nylander’s cap hit will nestle between Matthews and Tavares next season, but to suggest that Nylander’s cap hit over the course of his last deal was always in the same stratosphere as the other three is incorrect. Nylander has belonged in the core four conversation more because of his relative skill and age than his cap hit. With Tavares almost certainly taking a significant reduction on his next deal, the 2024–25 season will be the only season that all four are committed to top-of-the-market deals.
With that bit of semantics aside, the Leafs’ issues filling out a team with three of the top 10 earners league wide has not worked. Keeping Marner almost guarantees that will be the case beyond 2024–25, at least to start. With the cap back on its regular upward trajectory, the new wave of deals will not age as poorly as the previous cycle’s. The Leafs will have players making more than $10 million, but they might not all be in the top 10 league-wide for much longer.
The Marner and Tavares negotiations are important
Unfortunately for the Leafs, this means that next season the core four will be at its most expensive. In a vacuum, this is a terrifying concept, but challenges create opportunities. This 1 year cap bottleneck is a storm that can be navigated, for better or for worse.
For their parts, both Marner and Tavares can make statements with their next deals, as can the Leafs themselves. Shanahan’s initial vision of creating a culture of players who take less to win has completely failed amongst the top players. Veterans like Jason Spezza and Mark Giordano have provided immense value on what were essentially minimum deals, but scrounging for discounts on the edges of the roster every year is perilous, providing only the narrowest paths to team success.
The Leafs should feel emboldened to be quite firm in the negotiations with both players. The team should be aggressive in using any Tavares hometown discount, perhaps even beyond 66% less than his current cap hit. Although Marner had a rough playoffs, it’s quite unlikely that he’ll be looking for a pay cut. If the Leafs can get Marner to accept a contract that matches Nylander’s it might be the best case for all sides. Yes, Marner would be getting a raise, but the Leafs would be saving in terms of cap percentage.
The Shanaplan’s shortcomings
More importantly, these proposed contract frameworks symbolize some buy-in from the core players. This is the manifestation of culture, the drawn-out maturation process of the Matthews-era Leafs. Quite frankly, this is a step in the so-called “Shanaplan” that has yet to take place. It should be appreciated that the Leafs have enjoyed a stable run of regular season success, and employ some of the best players in franchise history. In the same breath, there has to be a burning push for more.
With a new President and CEO at MLSE, Keith Pelley, Shanahan is on the clock. His decade-long tenure has brought highs, as well as defiant lows. Usually, larger scope roles, like GMs or Presidents, are afforded longer evaluation periods than more day-to-day roles, like coaches. Pelley has stated a willingness to try to understand and support his presidents, making a dismissal something unlikely to be decided within his first two months on the job.
In other words, Shanahan will have some time to sell Pelley on his 5-year vision for the Leafs. Whether Shanahan survives as Leafs President through that time is another question, but at the very least he will have some time to show Pelley he can keep the team moving in the right direction. Should GM Brad Treliving fail, Shanahan likely will not get the chance to hire the next Leafs GM. There will be a chance for Shanahan and Treliving to bridge the gap between where the Leafs have been and where they want to be.
The focus of the team needs to change. Individual awards and milestones, individual contracts, and mercenaries taping intangibles like grit and experience onto the roster have all left the team without much success. Consistent playoff qualification, an elusive achievement for many upstart teams, has the Leafs settled into contentment, renting their roster on a year-to-year basis, spending futures for a present that ends in early May.
The Leafs will need to be bolder and more ambitious to become the team that they envision themselves as. In short, the Leafs need to become more than the core four. As the core four’s cap hit will be at its fullest effect for 2024–25, buying a new team will be nearly impossible. But Tavares and Marner symbolically buying in is not. Tavares abdicating the captaincy makes some sense in this context, if only to serve as a symbol that the team is willing to serve the group before the self.
The roster problems
From a talent perspective, there are and have been areas that the Leafs fall short in. In a truncated offseason of work, Treliving focused on toughness, colloquially referred to as snot. Many of the players brought in that fit this description played well and added to the team, and it should be expected that Treliving continues his emphasis on this area.
This is especially true when it comes to the blueline. Treliving clearly values length and strength, an old-school mentality that is back en vogue. There is criticism of the Leafs’ blueline’s ability to create offence, but with Timothy Liljegren and Conor Timmins often falling down the lineup this is in part due to deployment decisions and trust of those individuals. The Leafs’ lack of right shot options is likely the only thing keeping these two in the lineup at all, making RD a clear hole on the team.
While toughness and penalty killing viability are still crucial, adding a legitimate talent on the right side is clearly a priority. One might argue the Leafs did quite well to cobble together a decent blueline and strong team defence this season, but good enough has not cut it. The Leafs need to strive for a better blueline, one that might be considered elite. The teams remaining in the playoffs might not have better forwards or goalies than the Leafs, but all clearly have better bluelines.
Meanwhile, the goaltending is another area the Leafs will look to address. Save percentage is down league-wide, a factor that belongs at the forefront of any conversation here. Tandems are also the new normal. As Joseph Woll is young and talented, he seems injury-prone, intensifying the need for an overall upgrade on the position. Ilya Samsonov is far from the best option, but is also better than many of the other options the Leafs will have available to them in free agency. The goalie trade market has been incredibly slow, but there will be an appetite to acquire a more established option.
Though the Leafs scoring issues in the playoffs are well documented, the situation at forward looks promising. Most of the Leafs forwards are locked up for next season, many of whom hold some type of trade protection. The Leafs have a number of forwards who might challenge for a spot in the future as well. All together, the Leafs have a lot of cap space available this offseason, but a lot of roster spots that need to be filled. While the forward group is far from perfect, the Leafs have greater needs elsewhere.
Teambuilding solutions
It might be that there are no legitimate upgrades at RD and G available or affordable to the Leafs this summer. While disappointing, this is not the most important thing the Leafs achieve. Overpaying any UFA available to maybe win a couple more games next playoffs will be the true sign of stagnation. Instead, the Leafs must be truthful to themselves, to use an honest self-assessment to forge a stronger identity in the future.
With a season with four forwards costing over $10 million against the cap looming, the Leafs should realize that the path to legitimate contention lies in the longer term. Retooling efforts are perilous, with only a narrow path to success. Still, the Leafs will have to be bold in trusting their evaluations of players as well as their development staff to make it work.
The Leafs already have a decent prospect pool despite trading away futures assets for nearly a decade. Most notably, Fraser Minten and OHL MVP Easton Cowan seem likely to be in the NHL by the 2025–26 season. Both nearly forced their way onto the roster out of training camp last season. It still might be best for both to remain outside the NHL next year, but they represent a fairly tangible hope to reinforce and reinvigorate the Leafs forward group soon.
Building talent that fits in this timeframe should be the focal point, and signs that the Leafs recognize this started to appear shortly after William Nylander signed his extension. A pair of Treliving-sized defencemen were added, Cade Webber and Nicholas Mattinen, a left and right shot, respectively. While neither are household names, or guaranteed an NHL roster spot by any means, both have the chance to forge their path into becoming effective everyday NHLers.
Not every prospect reaches their potential, but these are exactly the types of low-cost, longer-term gambles that the Leafs should be making to transform their program from within. In fact, this strategy should be doubled down on, perhaps even trading for younger players who have yet to make their mark. Older, more established players often steal the offseason headlines and imaginations, but the Leafs can squeeze through their cap crunch and build in a higher ceiling by targeting players that many fans have not heard of yet. This might come in the form of young NHLers and prospects blocked from a clear path to the lineup, or even players who have stalled out in their current teams.
A look to next season
This does not mean throwing in the towel on 2024–25. In fact, a lighter load of veteran players will open opportunities for younger players. Look no further than the Leafs own Bobby McMann, who took a surprise spot in the lineup to a regular middle 6 role this season. Injuries will happen, but the Leafs would do well to get a look at some younger players next season.
The dream of the Shanahan era was perennial contention, leading to a winning culture that would outlast any player in particular. The focus has been on capitalizing on the mid-20s of Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. Obviously, it hasn’t worked out that way, but the dream lives on. The timeframe is relevant, but the most important part is building that culture. With actions that symbolize a collective buy-in, and a shared vision of the core four, the Leafs could easily take the next step in building that elusive winning culture.
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