I’ve seen a lot of people talk about a Kawhi Leonard-type trade for the Toronto Maple Leafs since their loss to the Boston Bruins in Round 1. It makes sense, the Kawhi trade saw the Raptors get rid of a fan favourite, All-Star calibre player in DeMar DeRozan, but instantly win a championship because of it.
The thing is, in this hypothetical scenario, I see the Leafs as the San Antonio Spurs.
Before the Kawhi trade, the Spurs finished seventh in the Western Conference and lost in the first round to the Golden State Warriors. Kawhi didn’t play in the series and then requested a trade in the offseason.
The Spurs got All-Star DeMar DeRozan, young centre Jakob Poeltl, and a first-round pick for the superstar. They chose to get younger and deeper, while still trying to stay competitive.
The Raptors used their depth to upgrade DeRozan. The Leafs aren’t in this position. They’ll be looking to turn a superstar into youth and depth, like the Spurs did.
Mitch Marner would be on his way out of Toronto
The obvious choice for a Leafs blockbuster is Mitch Marner. He’s coming off a dreadful first-round performance against the Bruins, where he scored just one goal and two assists in seven games. He’s earned the reputation of a playoff ghost, and fans are not happy with him.
Toronto isn’t dealing Auston Matthews. William Nylander just signed an eight-year extension that starts next season. John Tavares isn’t going to net them anything valuable, and Morgan Rielly is their only top-pair quality defenceman.
Marner is the odd man out.
This isn’t me saying anything will happen to the core of the Maple Leafs. But if something does, it will be Marner. He’s going into the last year of his contract and will be looking for a new deal with an AAV of around $12M.
He’s proven he is an elite player, especially in the regular season, but Toronto’s strategy of paying four forwards over half the cap hasn’t worked, and I doubt they’ll pay Marner what he wants on an extension.
And losing a player of Marner’s calibre for nothing in free agency would sting. Guys like him don’t grow on trees.
But he also has a full no-movement clause in his contract. Thanks to Kyle Dubas, Marner can simply tell Leafs management to pound salt, and there’s nothing they can do. If he wants to stick it to them, he’ll just play out next year and leave in free agency. He didn’t exactly have the best contract negotiations the first time around, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this happens.
The only benefit of getting traded for Marner is he can sign an eight-year extension with his new team if he decides to stay with them. If he hits the open market, he can only sign for seven. Is this enough to convince him to find a trade? I don’t know.
What this also means is Marner gets the final say in any deal. If he agrees to be traded, he’ll basically get to pick where he goes. There aren’t many teams that wouldn’t take him, but no deal will be made if he can’t find somewhere he wants to go.
Why a Kawhi-type trade works better in the NHL
Since the Kawhi trade, NBA teams have been terrified of making a deal like the Spurs. When a superstar gets traded now, it’s for as many future picks and prospects as possible. DeRozan was an All-Star, but couldn’t carry the Spurs to any success and left them as a mid-pack team.
But the NHL is a lot different than the NBA. Depth matters a lot more in the NHL. Instead of eight or nine players hitting the court, 18 skaters play during a hockey game.
So if Marner is dealt for basically the same type of package the Spurs got, it could be super beneficial to the Leafs.
Toronto’s defence, other than Morgan Rielly (who also had a brutal playoff showing), produces zero offence. Brad Treliving decided to get more physical, tough defencemen, which the Leafs definitely needed, but there needs to be a better balance between butchers and guys who can move the puck.
The third line didn’t produce a goal in Round 1 and has been a soft spot in the lineup for years. There’s a reason Keefe has tried moving Nylander down there over and over, the Leafs just never have a good third line. The fourth line was up and down, but when they were bad, they were bad. There has been no offence and no identity from Toronto’s bottom six for years, and they could use a lot more depth.
Goalies have also killed the Leafs in the past (we’ll talk more about this later). If the Leafs could find a good 1A goalie to pair with Joseph Woll, it would be immensely impactful.
And finally, the prospect cupboard is bare. There’s Easton Cowan, then Fraser Minten, and not a lot after that. Another young guy who could contribute on an entry-level deal would be helpful, whether he’s a forward or a defenceman.
Marner could net you a great goalie, a great defenceman, or great prospects. The Leafs will probably have to choose one option and add a bit of depth on top. My play would be finding a netminder.
My ideal Marner trade
I’ve watched Toronto goaltenders give up backbreaker after backbreaker in the playoffs since the beginning of the Matthews era. First, it was Frederik Andersen, then Jack Campbell, then Ilya Samsonov (who probably won’t be back next year).
The Nashville Predators seem like the ideal team to trade with to fix this problem. Juuse Saros is heading into the last year of his deal, they have Yaroslav Askarov ready to jump in as the starter, and they could use a top-end winger to give them some more offence.
They also made five first-round picks in the last three years, giving the Leafs options if they were to ask for Saros plus a prospect.
I’d expect Toronto would also want a defenceman in the deal, maybe Dante Fabbro.
If the core four is blown up, the reallocated funds should go to goaltending and defence. If Nashville isn’t willing to dance, I’d look towards the Calgary Flames.
Jacob Markstrom is still a great starting calibre goalie and would be a key piece in a Marner to Calgary deal. Add in right-handed defenceman Rasmus Andersson, and I think we’re starting to get somewhere.
I’m definitely lower on Andersson than most, but he’d immediately be the Leafs’ best RD. Even though he had a down year in 2023–24, that could be because the Flames generally weren’t great. He’s had a great career.
Either way, I think the Leafs need to focus on getting two or three impact guys for Marner, preferably in net and on the blueline. They’ve been weak spots for years.
The Leafs might run it back. They might even find success if they do. But fans are fed up, and the team knows it.
The best way to shake up the roster is a Marner trade. Get a goalie, help the blueline, and let Matthews and Nylander carry the forwards. Be the San Antonio Spurs and get younger and deeper by sending off your superstar, but have it actually work.
