The Toronto Maple Leafs are on a quest to improve, to bridge the gap between yet another first round playoff exit and their ultimate goal. On one hand, the Leafs basis for contender status revolves around their offensive capabilities. On the other hand, the Leafs have continued to struggle scoring when the stakes are highest. The following post from Jonas Siegel came after Game 4 of the Leafs first round series loss to the Boston Bruins, noting a trend that continued through Game 7. In their last 14 playoff games, the Leafs are averaging just under 1.86 goals per game.
By extension, although the strength of the team, the Leafs forward group might still need upgrading. While there are multiple avenues to improve, unrestricted free agency will provide the Leafs with some opportunities. Let’s take a look at some of this year’s UFA forward class and how their additions might fit into the Leafs quest for a brighter tomorrow.
Options at centre
The Leafs currently have Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and David Kampf on the roster as true centres. Despite his contract extension, Kampf has not been able to hold a spot as a third line centre, though his ability as a defensive specialist and penalty killer is useful. Unless a hybrid, like William Nylander, Max Domi, Pontus Holmberg, or Calle Jarnkrok, is moved to centre the Leafs are a player short down the middle.
Time will tell how coach Craig Berube chooses to deploy Tavares, as the second line, offensive centre, or as a checking centre. If the Leafs do choose to add a centre, their disposition and skills will reveal a lot of the Leafs intentions in this regard.
Middle 6
There are very few bonafide top nine centres available, even fewer who can be expected to have mutual interest with the Leafs. Of course, it is possible a player from Toronto, like Steven Stamkos, decides to come home, but this is not a reasonable expectation. Instead, the top group of free agent centres are viable middle six options who can impact team offence and team defence. These players are established, and might be costly in cap hit and term.
Alexander Wennberg is coming off a split season, traded from the Seattle Kraken to the New York Rangers. Wennberg likely provides the least offence of this group, but is an effective defensive presence. Chandler Stephenson is the speediest of the options, and has been a great centre for Mark Stone with the Vegas Golden Knights.
Adam Henrique is the oldest of this group, but might have the most to offer. Henrique, like Stephenson and Wennberg, is a capable penalty killer, and a responsible defender altogether. Henrique does not have the speed of Stephenson, but has the most to offer offensively or this trio.
As the oldest member of this group, Henrique will likely command less term than either Stephenson or Wennberg, meaning less risk. While all three would improve the Leafs roster in a vacuum, the Leafs likely have more pressing needs to spend their cap space on. Unless one of these players wants to come to Toronto on a sweetheart deal, signing these players is unlikely, or at least worthy of some suspicion.
Younger dart throws
A former first round pick, Jost has some pedigree. Despite this, Jost has blended into the Sabres bottom six forward group, failing to assert himself or establish enough of an identity to become a solution for his team. Especially on a deal of inconsequential cap hit and term, a player like Jost still might make sense for the Leafs to take a chance on. Jost has at least been an NHL contributor, a modest impact he should be able to replicate.
There might be RFAs left unqualified by their current teams or unsigned free agents from different leagues, but fans should not be afraid to have faith in a project the Leafs deem worthy of a look. More simply, if fans find themselves unfamiliar with a player the Leafs sign, it might be a good thing to give a player a chance at a minimal cap hit.
On the wing
The Leafs true strength, on paper, is the depth and quality of their wingers. Already, the Leafs boast a lot of firepower on the wings for next season. On this basis, any addition on the wings seems like a luxury that the Leafs might not be able to afford if they want enough money to significantly improve their defence. Discussing other outside options seems even more redundant considering the Leafs have a pair of UFAs who fit nicely onto the team last season.
On the other hand, Berube clearly valued having a big, physical, player on each of his lines with the St. Louis Blues. With Matthew Knies and Bobby McMann signed for next season, the Leafs are likely to prioritize adding at least one such player to complete their top nine.
Double dipping
Max Domi
Affectionately the smash brothers, Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi won over Leaf fans last season. Though it took some time for each to find their footing in the lineup, by the end of the season they were playing wonderfully on Matthews’ wings. Both fit in quite nicely in Toronto, not only as top six wingers but also in giving the Leafs a bit more of a mean streak. Bertuzzi’s abrasiveness and net front abilities make him attractive to bring back, while Domi has an undeniable chemistry with Matthews and seems the most likely to be back.
While the Leafs would probably have some interest in bringing both back, it should be noted that they presumably found themselves without better offers than the one-year deals they signed with the Leafs last summer. In other words, the Leafs may get either at a similar or reduced rate from last season if they are willing to offer a few seasons of term. In some ways, their fit on the Leafs roster might be the only reason the Leafs could talk themselves into spending roughly half of their available cap space on a pair of forwards.
Top six
These players are coming off of sizable contracts, and are capable of being part of a strong Leafs forward group. All of them are established enough to expect to have good contract offers, and at the very least should be expected to cost as much as Bertuzzi or Domi.
Though not the strongest skater, Toffoli is a great player, capable of controlling a lay and scoring 30 goals. Toffoli is crafty with the puck, able to manoeuvre through defences while protecting the puck, ultimately finding space to unleash a potent shot. DeBrusk is not the biggest body, but plays tough and drives to contested ice. DeBrusk is powerful, a strong skater, and is a bit younger than most of his contemporaries here. Both Toffoli and DeBrusk are likely too costly for the Leafs to justify, though both would undeniably improve the team.
Arvidsson is undersized but mighty. An abrasive player who plays with a rambunctious energy, Arvidsson is not afraid to use his high-quality shot. He is skilled enough to make deft passes as well. Perhaps due to his reckless style, Arvidsson has missed significant amounts of time to injury in recent seasons. An admirable competitor, Arvidsson’s best years are likely behind him, and it would be tough to count on his availability.
Jason Zucker does not have the offensive upside of the other players in this group, but might still be able to command a similar cap hit. Zucker brings an enthusiastic physicality, perhaps even with a bit more edge than Arvidsson. Without a clear spot in the Leafs top six, spending enough to afford any of these players is likely too much for the Leafs to stomach.
Dangerously hench
This group is a bit younger than the previous one, and in a vacuum might not be held in as high esteem either. With that being said, these forwards bring elements that might make them every bit additions to the top nine. Without as much of a reputation, these players might be more reasonably priced in general, let alone for a Leafs team that needs to plan their cap down to the dollar.
Dakota Joshua was once a Leafs draft pick, though he joined Berube’s Blues as a free agent after his Leafs rights expired. Joshua never put up huge scoring numbers as he rose through the ranks, instead earning the trust of his coaches through determination and effort. Clearly, Joshua brought this intensity to improving his skills as well, as Joshua has risen up the depth chart throughout his NHL career.
In his last season with the Blues (2021–22) Joshua held his own as a rotational fourth liner, showing some promise. Two seasons ago with the Vancouver Canucks Joshua became a lineup staple. This season he joined the Canucks top nine, chipping in 20 goals no less. Clearly, the Canucks should be interested in keeping Joshua, but the Leafs should at least investigate the situation. Time will tell if his history with either the Leafs or Berube has an impact on Joshua’s decision one way or another.
William Carrier had a down season, though he has routinely posted strong results for the Vegas Golden Knights over his time there. Like Joshua, Carrier is more than a mere henchman, and can help control play, as well as chip in offensively. Carrier has been playing on a line with Nicolas Roy and Keegan Kolesar, a big group that plays a heavy game. This trio is often thought of as the Knights fourth line, though truly they receive more ice time than the moniker would suggest.
This theme of rugged physicality is echoed by Trenin and Noesen as well. Trenin split time between the Nashville Predators and Colorado Avalanche last season. Though not quite the size of the other players in this group, Trenin is not shy to make his physicality known to opponents. Noesen spent some time in the Leafs system before joining and taking off with the Carolina Hurricanes. Noesen has a nose for the net, a clear role on a second power play unit.
These players would make for interesting additions for the Leafs, who might have to offer a more aggressive (longer) term to procure their services. In particular, these players will be of interest if Bertuzzi does not return to the team.
A depth option
Again, the unqualified RFA market will play a factor here, but there are lesser-known players across the league who seem capable of more than given credit for. Sherwood is a hard-working, honest player, able to bring a wily craftiness to the ice. Sherwood is not the biggest or the most skilled, but is smart enough to stay in the play, and willing enough to eke out space in contested ice. The Leafs do have some forward depth, but adding an extra player or two to compete for limited roles would still be prudent.
Conclusion
So long as the Leafs cap situation is in a status quo, it might be difficult to imagine any spending sprees on UFA forwards. The highest priced free agents, like Steven Stamkos or Jonathan Marchessault, are likely out of the Leafs grasp. The Leafs are in need of much more work on the blueline than up front. The Leafs already have a lot of forwards, and a lot of younger forwards who might be able to continue improving.
Any moves that the Leafs do make at forward will likely help intentional stylistic pieces that will help maximize the current roster in Treliving and Berube’s minds. This likely means targeting players who add dimension to the Leafs top forwards, along with the skills to be an effective linemate. There are definitely some interesting UFAs on the market, but similarly skilled players on shorter or cheaper contracts might offer more value as well. If one or both of Bertuzzi and Domi return to the Leafs, the chances of a big UFA forward splash greatly diminishes.
