The Toronto Maple Leafs offseason will be filled with major moves. With 10 skaters becoming RFAs or UFAs, plus their playoff starter hitting unrestricted free agency, they don’t really have a choice. With the option to bring back, or not bring back, so many guys, Brad Treliving’s fingerprints will be all over next year’s roster.
We’re going to go through every pending free agent on the team, weighing the pros and cons of bringing them back or letting them walk, and give our thoughts on how their free agency might play out.
First up is fan favourite Max Domi.
A tale of two seasons
By Valentine’s Day, Domi hadn’t done much to convince Treliving, or Leaf Nation, he would be very valuable bringing back. He was fine, but nothing more than that. He spent the majority of the season bouncing between lines, playing with Tyler Bertuzzi, Calle Jarnkrok, and Nicholas Robertson, occasionally getting opportunities with the big guys.
Domi rotated between winger and centre, starting the season on the left side before moving to the third-line centre where he stuck for a while. Sheldon Keefe couldn’t find a definitive spot for him, which undoubtedly hurt his play as he tried to find a fit within the forward group.
In his first 51 games in blue and white, he registered just five goals and 25 points. He was still one of the Leafs best depth scoring options, but that’s more a testament to how bad the Leafs depth can be rather than a glowing review of Domi’s game. At the end of the day, he was playing at the level you’d expect from a guy on a one-year, prove-it $3M contract.
It was only after moving to Auston Matthews’ wing that Domi started to thrive.
In the final 29 games of the regular season, Domi put up four goals and 22 points, including 12 primary assists. With Mitch Marner down nursing an injury, Domi took his spot and ran with it.
While Matthews chased down 70 goals, Domi was feeding him scoring chance after scoring chance, showcasing his elite passing game and offensive instincts. Easily Domi’s biggest strength, his playmaking finally shined after being given a spot beside the best goal scorer in the league.
And with his confidence improving, his feistiness and compete levels turned up too. Domi fought six times in the 2023–24 season, four of them coming after Valentine’s. He reached a new career high in penalty minutes with 118, and brought the kind of blue-collar attitude the Leafs haven’t had in the Matthews era.
The end of the season was what Leafs fans envisioned the best version of Domi could be when he was signed last offseason, and he continued his improved game in the playoffs. He scored one goal and three assists against Boston, including a gorgeous feed to Matthews in Game 2.
Domi’s season totals don’t necessarily jump off the page, but by the end of the year his game was in a great spot.
The pros of bringing him back
His impact on the forward group
Of all Toronto’s UFAs, I think Domi is the most likely to re-sign, and I think it’s the right thing for Treliving to do.
He was excellent with Matthews, giving Keefe more options with the rest of the forwards and helping give Toronto a deeper forward look overall. With Domi, Matthews, and Bertuzzi on the first line, it gave Keefe the chance to experiment with Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander elsewhere.
The Leafs were injured up front for most of the series against the Bruins, so the deep forward look didn’t get much of a shot, but by the end of the year, the four lines looked (on paper) about as good as they’ve been in the Matthews era.
Domi’s playmaking is truly elite, and Matthews has always excelled with Marner who possesses the same traits. That’s not to say Domi is as good as Marner, but if he can produce similar results while making a fraction of the cost, and let new head coach Craig Berube use the other star forwards down the lineup, he would be a huge help.
Not everyone can play with the superstars, but Domi can. Since Zach Hyman left, the Leafs have searched, successfully and unsuccessfully, for that cheaper option to play on the first line, and Domi proved he could be that guy in the final stretch of last year.
The cost won’t be too high
Domi won’t make league minimum, but he won’t break the bank either. He’ll presumably get a raise from the $3M contract he played on this year, but this season wasn’t dissimilar from his career averages.
If Treliving can get him for around $4M, he should definitely consider it. Assuming Domi can continue to be a first-line winger who can reliably play with Matthews and produce close to 60 points a year, that type of contract with some term would be great.
There’s been some recent speculation Domi could end up getting up to $6M for five years. While I think that’s ridiculous, it’s worth bringing up. I don’t really see how he ends up with that kind of money, considering he finished last year right around where he ends up every season, and he’s signed two straight $3M AAV contracts. Maybe it’s the “Leafs tax”, or maybe it’s just wild speculation, but $6M would be too much.
It would be more likely (I hope) Domi takes a small pay cut to stay in Toronto where his dad became a legend playing for the Leafs. He’s been vocal about how much playing in the city means to him, and unless he gets an offer he can’t refuse elsewhere, I’d imagine he’d love to stay in blue and white.
The possibility of replacing Marner
There’s no one Leaf Nation wants gone more than Mitch Marner, there’s no doubt about that. We won’t know for a while, but the odds he’s traded are higher than they’ve ever been.
If he’s traded, Domi is the logical option to “replace” him in terms of his spot in the lineup. He did while Marner was hurt, and played so well he stayed in his spot beside Matthews for the playoffs.
If Treliving decides to move on from Marner and bolster goaltending or defence instead, Domi can help lessen the blow of losing the superstar winger. He won’t be as good as Marner, but as I said before, if he can produce somewhat similarly while making a fraction of the money, it would be huge.
The cons
A flash in the pan?
While Domi’s end of the year was fantastic, for the majority of the season, he was pretty average. Signing him, especially long-term, presents a risk if he plays more like his first 50 games rather than his last 30.
His chemistry with Matthews is apparent, which gives confidence what we saw at the end of the year is sustainable, but if that chemistry dissipates, finding Domi a spot elsewhere in the lineup could be troublesome. He didn’t perform particularly well anywhere else, and his defensive game probably isn’t good enough to be a reliable 2C or 3C.
Signing someone for a specific role, in this case a winger for Matthews, is always risky. If the role doesn’t work out, you’re left searching for another spot for the player that won’t work out like you hoped. To give Domi money and term, Treliving should be confident he can help in other places, not just beside Matthews.
And while Domi’s defensive game improved as the year went on, it’s still his biggest area to grow moving forward. When Matthews plays with Marner, two of the best defensive forwards in the league are on the ice. When he plays with Domi, Matthews has to do a lot of the heavy lifting.
If those contract rumours are true
While I don’t see how anyone would give Domi $5–6M with term, if that’s what he’s asking, Treliving should let another team give him that kind of money.
It doesn’t make sense cap-wise for the Leafs, and it doesn’t reflect Domi’s play. While fans would be upset to see him walk, Domi hasn’t earned such a lucrative contract. I personally don’t think the rumours are true, and don’t really see how anyone would think giving him $6M with term would be a good idea. I guess we’ll see.
Final thoughts and predictions
I think Domi is exactly the type of player Leaf Nation has wanted for a while. He fights, he battles, he puts up points, and his dad is a Toronto legend. And while I think Treliving will win some brownie points with the fans if he does re-sign him, there are still some risks that come with the negotiations.
But in this case, the upside is high enough the risks are worth taking. Domi could be a staple on the first line for the next few seasons, and stability is something this group hasn’t seen in a while. Locking up a sure-fire producer doesn’t happen very often in Leaf land, and Treliving has the chance to do it for fairly cheap with Domi.
As for predictions, I think Domi re-signs for about $4M for four years. He’s already 29, so anything over five years is risking a pretty bleak end of the contract. And $4M feels fair for everyone considering his past contracts and his level of play last season.
I’d be nervous about going over $4M, and hope he’ll take a bit of a discount to stay in blue and white, but giving him a little raise and some term seems like the most likely thing to happen.
Domi feels like the kind of guy that should be a Leaf for life, and while he might have to sacrifice some cash to make that happen, locking him up for the next few years would be a great start.
