Though there is still a lot of offseason ahead, most of the Leafs roster reshaping is done. We should expect some smaller updates and changes as we approach training camp, but we have enough information to start piecing together what the Leafs lineup might look like. Of course, within the power vacuum that comes with a new head coach, we might have less of an idea of what to expect. Let’s take a look at some of the burning questions that will dictate the Leafs lineup next season.
Who plays centre?
Three of the centre slots are close to guaranteed, as it is a bit early to start suggesting a move to the wing for John Tavares, who joins Auston Matthews and David Kampf down the middle. There are a multitude of forward alignments that hinge on the answer to the fourth centre spot, and many shades of grey therein. Among those who might be options are William Nylander, Max Domi, Calle Jarnkrok, Pontus Holmberg, Connor Dewar, and Fraser Minten.
Three scoring lines
Nylander and Domi both have proven to be effective down the middle elsewhere, but as Leafs their best work has come while on the wings. Perhaps both could handle a role down the middle in a vacuum, but within the context of the team, it might not be as agreeable. Under GM Brad Treliving and coach Craig Berube, more conventional or traditional thoughts might steer the Leafs. Nylander or Domi joining Matthews and Tavares down the middle is a group that skews toward offensive-mindedness.
Perhaps that in itself is a challenge to those players, to all be more defensively inclined. After all, Matthews and Tavares are quite responsible in their own end, Matthews especially given his Selke Trophy consideration. On the other hand, the Leafs skilled players are best served in scoring roles. Role definition is important, and teams need at least one checking line that can shut down opposing lines whose talents are beyond their own.
Knies — Matthews — Marner
McMann — Tavares — Nylander
Robertson — Domi — Jarnkrok
Dewar — Kampf — Holmberg
The top two lines would be status quo, which could mean anything given the coaching change. At the very least they make a lot of sense, and Berube has a pattern of giving each line a physical presence. Knies had many flashes, and is still growing into this demanding role. Bobby McMann was a fantastic compliment to Tavares. Nylander and Marner can be swapped, of course.
Though Nicholas Robertson is still unsigned, this might be his best spot in a Leafs lineup, outside of a line with Mitch Marner and Tavares. His shot makes him a great linemate for Domi. Jarnkrok has something of a shot himself, but provides this line with some defensive conscience.
The real trick here, rather the reason it is at all viable, is that Dewar, Kampf, and Holmberg have some potential as a defensive unit. Holmberg, who has by far the most offensive upside of the trio, is still a positional stalwart. Not only do the Leafs need a checking line, but these three should all be mainstays of the penalty kill.
Beyond this prospective formation, this strong fourth line might make a soft landing spot for rookies and call-ups higher in the lineup. Perhaps Easton Cowan, Nikita Grebyonkin, or Fraser Minten might have a better chance of sticking if not burdened with a checking role or buried on a seldom-used fourth line.
Of course, Ryan Reaves will find his way into the lineup circumstantially.
Alternatively, we might consider:
Knies — Matthews — Domi
McMann — Tavares — Marner
Holmberg — Nylander — Jarnkrok
Dewar — Kampf — Reaves
Time will tell, but chances are Domi will either be a centre or on Matthews’ wing where he filled in nicely for Marner last season.
Marner and Matthews have played well together, but his chemistry here with Tavares and McMann might be a better fit. At the very least Tavares and McMann need Marner’s skill, especially through the neutral zone, more than Matthews.
An all-Swedish line is more than a novelty, and in truth, any one of the three might be able to play centre. This should help give Nylander ample defensive support, in any case.
At the risk of being longer, a final wrinkle might involve swapping Nylander and Tavares here.
Top six, bottom six
Moving either Holmberg or Dewar to centre would create a bigger divide between the Leafs lines, encapsulating the concept of role definition. To this point, Jarnkrok and Holmberg have been more effective, prioritizing them for the move to the middle.
Knies — Matthews — Domi
Nylander — Tavares — Marner
McMann — Holmberg — Jarnkrok
Dewar — Kampf — Reaves
If Domi and Knies are enough for Matthews to be his dominant self, the Leafs could load up the second line in a big way. Nylander and Marner have rarely shared a line together, and Tavares is a decent complement between the two puck-dominant wingers. Opposing teams would be forced to decide which line to stop, leaving the other to feast upon favourable matchups.
This does leave the Leafs bottom six to figure the rest out. As Dewar, Kampf, and Reaves is a fairly known commodity as a pure fourth line, this relies heavily upon this third line. McMann brings his athleticism and a relentless will that has delivered him from the ECHL. Jarnkrok is fairly responsible, experienced in a shutdown role. Holmberg has not seen much time at centre in the NHL, but has the disposition to succeed. Together this trio has the speed, will, and discipline to suffocate opponents. They might even have just enough skill to effectively counterpunch, as well.
Rookies
Minten, Cowan, and to an extent, Grebyonkin are all interesting possibilities for next season. All three will be given a chance to prove themselves, but will be facing uphill battles. The Leafs forward group is quite deep, in that there are not many jobs up for grabs as a concept. Still, for those who would like to get carried away with optimism surrounding the Leafs top prospects, in particular Cowan and Minten, there is a dream scenario.
Knies — Matthews — Domi
Nylander — Minten — Marner
McMann — Tavares — Cowan
Holmberg — Kampf — Jarnkrok
It should be cautioned that this outcome of both Cowan and Minten being ready to be regular contributors is quite bold. We might see the Leafs replicate their plan with Minten from last season with Cowan, keeping him around for the first few weeks of the season. Given the Leafs depth up front, it is likely for the best that both play elsewhere next season unless they force their way into the team. While quite unlikely, this is a possibility.
This supposes that Minten is ready for second unit penalty killing, as well as holding his own at centre and between two superstars. Minten does have a long-term outlook to make sense as a fit alongside more skilled wingers. It is not certain that Minten has this level of upside, let alone for next season. His strong fundamentals are a prospective fit alongside skilled wingers just as they cover his lack of dynamic offence.
Cowan, meanwhile, would be supported to work on both sides of his game with Tavares and McMann. The experience of Tavares and the doggedness of McMann are no doubt wisdoms the Leafs should look to embed upon Cowan. This trio would encourage Cowan to play the puck often, unlike more puck-dominant players that might take them away from him. The group would be counted on for a level of defence and forechecking that Cowan could excel in as well.
Given their chemistry, at some point, Cowan and Minten might share a line. Swapping Minten with Tavares in the aforementioned lineup might be a play, though two rookies sharing a line might be a bit more sheltered. In such a case, it helps that Holmberg, Kampf, and Jarnkrok is a perfectly acceptable checking line. If anything, this further drives home the Leafs forward depth, even without their rookies forcing their way onto the team.
Grebyonkin could be an interesting addition in his own right. Having seen some success in the KHL, he might move into the AHL or the NHL next season. Grebyonkin can score and is quite physical, which might endear him to Berube. In some sense, Grebyonkin might be a substitute for wherever Robertson might fit into the lineup, a middle-six wing spot.
In any case, it does not make much sense for the Leafs to be limiting the ice time for their prospects. There will be much fanfare here either way, but at the very least Minten or Grebyonkin might be factors in the NHL lineup at some point in the season. If they can get off to strong AHL rookie seasons, they might be built-in roster upgrades as attrition befalls the Leafs.
Call ups
Still, there will be injuries throughout the season that will require a call-up. More established prospects might be able to force their way into a depth role as well. Alex Steeves and Nicholas Abruzzese might be better served by the limited minutes available to a training camp surprise. Steeves, in particular, has a chance to be appreciated by Berube if he can embrace the heavier aspects of his game. If Steeves can be forceful and decisive he might have an inside lane to a depth role.
It’s easy to see how Steeves might be able to fit in any wing spot in the bottom six, particularly on the fourth line to start.
Trades, UFAs, and PTOs
There is a storm cloud of possibilities that lie beyond the team at this point. Without getting into hypothetical trades, there are a number of unsigned UFAs on the market, and potentially some RFAs that might shake loose. Most likely of all is that GM Brad Treliving signs some players to professional tryouts or PTOs, as he did last season.
A number of the options still available at forward are more one-dimensional offensive players, which could be a bad sign for the unsigned Nick Robertson. There is a lot of potential in this group, but to an extent the Leafs adding more scorers is unlikely.
Alex Nylander is surely high on lists across Leafs Nation, a former first-round pick who scored a lot with the Columbus Blue Jackets down the stretch, and of course familial ties as William Nylander’s brother. Alex Nylander might still have some growth, making him more intriguing than veteran options like former Leaf James van Riemsdyk, Max Pacioretty, Mike Hoffman, Blake Wheeler, Kevin LeBanc, and Alex Barabanov. Other players of a similar age might fit, Jakob Vrana, Filip Zadina, and Dominik Kubalik are often thought of as defensive liabilities, while Kailer Yamamoto plays with a bit more sandpaper but lacks size.
Some more defensive or physical options include Austin Watson, Nick Cousins, and Colin White. It is unlikely that veterans like Kyle Okposo, Cal Clutterbuck, or Matt Martin will look to move to Toronto. Perhaps Sammy Blais, a player for Berube with the St. Louis Blues will be brought in for a training camp audition.
In the end, any PTOs the Leafs take a look at will have long odds and steep competition. At a certain point, the Leafs internal candidates might be better than the options still available on the market.
