Coming off of a highly anticipated rookie year in the NHL, soon-to-be 22-year old-winger Matthew Knies is a candidate to take a step next season. A power forward with a nose for the net, Knies’ game is built on his impressive athleticism. There was a ton of hype for Knies’ arrival to the Leafs, as his skillset seems to lend itself nicely to the Leafs high-end skill forwards.
Those who got too carried away might have felt Knies underperformed, but this outlook has little bearing on evaluating him as a player. As a rookie, Knies was placed on the top line of an aspiring contender, and even showed some promise beyond that. His first NHL season showed that Knies has a lot to work with, and might have a lot more yet.
Knies’ history
A late second-round pick in a time obscured by COVID, Knies was not the talk of his 2021 draft class, though being the Leafs first pick of the draft thrust him into the spotlight. After missing a good chunk of the first half of his draft year, Knies was able to produce in the USHL down the stretch. Even if his production was not elite in his draft year, the big-scoring winger was a prospect that many across Leafs Nation were happy about.
Knies would go on to feature on some prominent stages. Playing on an incredible NCAA line with more heralded prospects in Logan Cooley and Jimmy Snuggerud, Knies looked every bit as responsible for their collective success as his linemates. Knies would also feature for Team USA at the Olympics, as well as the U20 World Junior Championship in 2022.
It was at the end of his sophomore NCAA season that Knies turned pro, instantly finding his way into the NHL lineup for a handful of regular season games. Knies appeared to be ready for the challenge, a noticeable contributor in the 2022–23 playoffs. The small sample size and relative success had many fans dreaming of a readymade everyday top six NHL forward. Knies’ official rookie season seemed similar, with Knies showing some flashes, but ultimately a bit short of thriving in a leading role for the Leafs.
Stats
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Tri-City Storm | USHL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-20 | Tri-City Storm | USHL | 44 | 14 | 31 | 45 |
| 2020-21 | Tri-City Storm | USHL | 44 | 17 | 25 | 42 |
| 2021-22 | U. of Minnesota | Big-10 | 33 | 15 | 18 | 33 |
| 2022-23 | U. of Minnesota | Big-10 | 40 | 21 | 21 | 42 |
| 2022-23 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2023-24 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 80 | 15 | 20 | 35 |
Player profile
Strengths
Knies is big, athletic, energetic, and perhaps even rambunctious. His strength and speed package is a plus all on its own. This should help him continue to grow as a forechecker and in contested ice. Knies has the size, motor, and willingness to thrive in physical battles all around the ice. Knies plays with an edge with an almost ravenous competitiveness.
Knies does have offensive talent as well, though his main strength as a scorer is his ability to navigate physicality at the net front. Knies has a bold, never-say-die attitude with the puck on his stick, and will at least attempt to make desperate plays with the puck while falling. Perhaps not always the ideal play, Knies is able to pull off some dazzling and dramatic dekes. This makes Knies a dangerous net front option, and perhaps a capable playmaker off of offensive zone cycles.
There are signs that Knies has even more to work with, as he has been able to score from distance off of quality shots. Given his speed, Knies might be able to increase his effectiveness in attacking off of the rush.
Weaknesses
In all situations, but especially with the puck, Knies can become more effective with some added poise and quality. Knies does have all the tools to achieve beyond his rookie season, but the application could still use refining. If Knies is able to better protect possession of the puck, it will buy him more time to make better plays. Knies still has a lot to learn, and the multitude of dimensions to his game are still coming together at the NHL level. As a frequenter of physical battles, anything Knies can do to increase his balance and flexibility will be key to gaining and maintaining possession.
Former Leafs GM Brian Burke once spoke of preferring to “tame a tiger” than to “paint stripes on a lamb”. Knies is a tiger in this metaphor, perhaps overly eager or aggressive. Combined with his being a rookie, Knies ended up taking a good deal of penalties. While taking penalties is not good, given that penalties in NHL games are often fairly even in number to either team, it might not be as bad as it seems. Facetiously, one might argue a penalty is an investment into a future power play. Realistically, this is far from a major issue for Knies.
Regardless, Knies can reel in his discipline a bit. It is fantastic that Knies is so eager to battle, so desperate to win, but there is a line. Perhaps as he continues to prove himself he can earn a few non-calls as well. Hopefully, Knies’ maturity and focus will only grow with time. In all, Knies is already a good NHL player, but he might be just scratching the surface of something more.
His fit on the Maple Leafs
Having established Knies’ credentials in his own right, his fit on the Leafs is worthy of even greater optimism. Even last season Knies’ size and play style made him a compliment to the Leafs top forwards. With Tyler Bertuzzi lost to free agency, that need is exacerbated. Furthermore, new coach Craig Berube has a history of giving each of his lines some sort of physical presence. Beyond this, Marc Savard, Berube’s power play coach for the St. Louis Blues now reprising the same role on the Leafs, was willing to put Sammy Blais on the top power play unit as well.
This anecdote might be read as a prediction that Blais receives a PTO come training camp, but it also shows just how much Berube and his staff will entrust players like Knies with bigger roles. Knies is a far superior offensive player to Blais, and might have a chance to play the net front on the Leafs top power play unit. The unit seems in need of some sort of shakeup, and the Leafs will have a number of avenues to do so. If Knies is able to win a spot here it would be enormous for his production.
It is very possible that Knies gets another shot alongside Auston Matthews and one of Mitch Marner, William Nylander, or Max Domi at even strength. Knies was not ready for the lofty role last season, but that does not mean that he will never be. Regardless, the Leafs have a lot of great forwards. Knies will be somewhere within the mix of the top three lines, and should see a few more minutes per game, perhaps up to 15 from the roughly 13 he managed last season. He will have strong linemates to work with, and will likely be a favourite of his coach.
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