The NHL offseason will continue to barrel forward, but new Toronto Maple Leafs GM John Chayka has already put in a lot of work towards reshaping the organization. Though there will be more moves ahead, Chayka has revealed some of his priorities for the team.
Between the draft, trades, and free agency, there have been many opportunities for change as well. So far, there have been some crucial shifts within the organization. Let’s take a closer look at the totality of the moves so far, as well as what they point to.
Two-year window
Auston Matthews has two years left on his contract. The Leafs do not have their own first-round picks in either of those seasons either. The mandate is clear, as the Leafs will be looking to maximize this time frame.
Two-year pacts to players like Colton Sissons, Jack Roslovic, Troy Stecher, and Teddy Blueger demonstrate this, naturally building into this timeframe. Contracts to Max Domi, Dakota Joshua, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson will also expire at that time. While many of these deals might seem expensive, ending at the right time will allow some flexibility.
To an extent, everything could be viewed through this lens. Older newcomers like Sergei Bobrovsky might be measured against this timeframe. The Leafs potential window for contention is contingent on Matthews playing like a top-five centre, and so it is the only choice the Leafs have to build around that.
First pass
There is clearly an emphasis on acquiring defencemen who are adept in transition. Defensively, this means defending the rush. Maintaining gaps is key, which means skating prowess to keep up with attackers. An active stick is always a plus.
Offensively, this means finding a way to advance the puck with possession. Again, skating is vital to avoid forecheckers for as long as possible and potentially to open up better plays with an extra half second of time. It also means having strong passing skills to take hold of those opportunities and to give their teammates more advantageous possessions.
The Leafs have clearly targeted players who can help in this area. Darren Raddysh and Emil Andrae join, both able to help exit the zone with a quick, clean pass. Meanwhile, Brandon Carlo and Simon Benoit were moved out, notably among the Leafs regulars from last season, as some of the weaker options in this area.
Naturally, a more connected effort will see better results than last season. Still, improving in this area will solve a few issues for the Leafs. For one, the Leafs will look a lot faster with stronger transition play. The puck moves faster than any skater. A team that can move the puck quickly and decisively can better control play. The Leafs were routinely outmatched last season, conceding possession and shot advantages most nights.
Defensive beef
Up front, there has been a clear emphasis on centres. Nick Paul, Colton Sissons, and Teddy Blueger are all centres, and even Jack Roslovic has done so at the NHL level. Chayka expressed a desire to build a roster that gives head coach Jim Hiller optionality.
Throwing in Brandon Duhaime, this new group brings a lot of physical prowess. Size, speed, and a willingness to embrace the dirty work required of them. While their offensive totals do not impress, this group brings a lot to the forecheck as well as the penalty kill. These players will allow Hiller to curtail some of Matthews’ defensive workload. There might be some tough stretches where offence from the bottom-six is harder to come by, but they should provide a lot of structure to the Leafs lineup.
There are shades of grey within the group. Roslovic profiles more as a scoring middle-six winger. Blueger relies more on his reads to control possession and has a strong history with Dakota Joshua. Sissons and Duhaime seem like a strong start to a line. Paul could well pinch up the lineup, as he did at times two seasons ago for the Tampa Bay Lightning before being derailed last season.
The players the Leafs moved off of were more offensively inclined, but often did not allow for lineup flexibility. Undersized offensive wingers Nick Robertson and Matias Maccelli can and did produce, yet they never truly asserted themselves into a defined role.
In the end, this stability might make it easier for skilled players who do get a shot in the Leafs lineup. Both Gavin McKenna and Easton Cowan will be looking to carve out a spot in the lineup. Along with a benchmark in Roslovic, these players might bounce around the lineup a bit next season. All three might find success as offensive catalysts alongside a more responsible centre, such as Paul or Blueger.
Asset management
As much as any GM might have theoretical ideas of what their team should be, the task is to work within the constraints of the limited resources their team has. Chayka clearly leveraged some of the deepest areas of his team to reinforce the areas that needed help. While trading Nick Robertson might fall into this category, how Chayka navigated the goalie market was even more striking.
Chayka took an area of great strength and aggressively changed course. Signing Bobrovsky does a lot of work here, as the presumptive starter. The Leafs still have a talented tandem mate in Anthony Stolarz, who might be kept healthier with less of a burden. There is also a high upside and waiver-exempt third option in Artur Akhtyamov. The Leafs goaltending remains a strength.
Still, Chayka was assertive and decisive, clearing out the redundancies. Stolarz was kept over Joseph Woll, both capable of sharing a crease and projecting to injuries. Akhtyamov was kept over Dennis Hildeby, prospects of the same age, both on the precipice of an NHL job. The Leafs crease is much more efficient in its current setup, both in terms of cap dollars and in how they fit together.
Blueline pipeline
A great sign is that Chayka has been able to do all this without burning through draft capital. Even more encouraging is how the Leafs used their draft picks to address a key weakness in their prospect pipeline. The Leafs needed help on the blueline at the NHL level last season, but also with respect to their future.
The Leafs employ a lot of older defencemen who might not be able to provide value through the end of their current deals. In two years, when Matthews’ contract is up, multiple of these defencemen might not be contributors. The Leafs will need some options to replace them, and internal development will give them leverage and clarity to do so.
The Leafs took several interesting defencemen in the draft, all of which seem to fit their current tastes. Rather than production and highlights, rather than size and physicality, the Leafs valued transition skills on both sides of the puck. They can skate well and make good first passes. While they are not huge, they do have some size. While they are not leading scorers, they can help their teams offensively.
What is also encouraging is that the Leafs took a standout double overager in Ethan MacKenzie. While the other defencemen selected are at least two years from making their AHL debuts, MacKenzie will likely find himself as an AHL rookie this coming season. In two years, he will likely be much closer to being relevant to the Leafs NHL outlook. This helps fill a bubble in the Leafs prospect pipeline, one that has eroded from years of trade deadline buying.
While drafting McKenna is obviously the headline, the Leafs deserve some credit for swinging an organizational weakness into much better standing. Mans Gudmundson has already played an SHL game, and Yaroslav Fedoseyev has already played in nine KHL games. Alexander Bilecki was drafted ahead of both. All four are already relevant to the Leafs prospect pipeline, injecting a lot more hope into the group’s future.
Big picture
The Leafs were awful last season and will need a lot to go right to bounce back into playoff relevance. Some regression to the mean will be vital, perhaps a concession that the team underperformed last season. Some improvement is vital as well. There were big holes in overall offensive firepower, centre depth, and on the blueline, especially for a puck mover on the right side.
While the Leafs did not add a perennial Norris Trophy candidate, Raddysh unquestionably answers some of the questions on defence. Although they did not add a centre better than Tavares, they did add a lot of options down the middle. McKenna is vital as well, representing another chance at a high-end winger after Mitch Marner’s time as a Leaf ended. He might not be ready to excel at the NHL level this season, but the Leafs could not have made a higher-upside acquisition.
That said, things have changed in the Atlantic Division. The Florida Panthers should be back with a vengeance, if only for the return of Aleksander Barkov. The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres are riding young cores to new heights. The Tampa Bay Lightning remain as fearsome as ever. The Detroit Red Wings, Boston Bruins, and Ottawa Senators were all better than the Leafs last season as well. The Leafs could have a really good season and make the playoffs, yet still finish fifth in their division.
The Leafs should perform much better than last season, but are they legitimate contenders? The influx of McKenna and Cowan might raise the star power up front. The back end will have to rely on synergy to be amongst the league’s better units. The goaltending should be strong, even if Bobrovsky cannot return to Vezina Trophy form.
Moreover, an emphasis of coach Hiller is the team’s spirit. The team itself, as well as its fans, will need to have the belief that the Leafs can achieve their goals. The team will need to show that things are different enough for many fans to come back around on them. A new season might offer a fresh slate, but many will remain skeptical until the team shows the spirit Hiller is referring to.
