Matthew Knies lines: Projections for the Toronto Maple Leafs left wing battle

As the summer drags on, we inch closer to every hockey fan’s favourite time of year, the start of a new NHL season, and that is definitely the case for Leafs fans in Toronto and beyond. Even with how lacklustre last season was for the Blue and White, several significant offseason trades and signings, and a top pick in the 2026 draft, have given fans renewed excitement for the upcoming Leafs season.

Even with the trade departures of guys like Nick Robertson, Simon Benoit and Joseph Woll, one young Leafs star who had significant trade rumours surrounding him remains in Toronto: left winger Matthew Knies. And honestly, it makes sense for Knies to remain a Leaf. At just 23 years old, Knies has already proven to be one of the Leafs’ top offensive weapons, and just last season, Knies was the team’s third leading point scorer with 66 points in 79 games – a career high for the Arizona native. That impressive play allowed Knies to primarily be placed on the Leafs’ top line for a good portion of last season.

However, this season brings with it some new aspects for the Leafs that could dictate what line Knies winds up playing on, and we will be analyzing all these factors, along with adding some personal preferences, to try to determine which line – first, second or third – would be the best fit for Matthew Knies.

Return to the top line?

If the Leafs were simply running it back with the same team, Knies would undoubtedly be an obvious choice for the top-line left winger spot, but this isn’t the same Leafs team, because this new look squad drafted left winger Gavin McKenna with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft.

McKenna, though having yet to actually make his NHL debut, has put together a more than stellar resume at the CHL, NCAA and international levels. In 2024–25, McKenna had an other-worldly season for the WHL’s Medicine Hat Tigers, putting up 88 assists and 129 points in just 56 games, and he then added another 38 points in 16 games in the playoffs. McKenna wasn’t quite as impressive in his one season of NCAA hockey with Penn State in 2025–26, but he did still shine with 51 points in 35 games.

With McKenna’s numbers in mind, the Leafs will surely look to inject him into the lineup right away, and likely in a significant way, but whether or not that is on the team’s top line depends on a couple of factors. The first of these factors is McKenna’s performance, and likewise the performance of Knies. We could easily see the team beginning the season with Knies on the top line, but if McKenna starts to put together an elite rookie-of-the-year-level campaign, that could send Knies down to the second unit. On the other hand, Knies could put together his best season yet and remain on the top line.

To summarize, it really could go either way.

Second line and final thoughts

We won’t be looking at the third line as a real option, as save for a catastrophic season for Knies, we really only see him being on one of the team’s top two lines, but the one guy that could give Knies some competition for the second line left wing slot is fellow young Leaf Easton Cowan. Last season was Cowan’s first full season with the Leafs, and while he didn’t absolutely light up the stat sheet, he did have a decent first year of NHL hockey, putting up 11 goals and 29 points in limited minutes through 66 games. We don’t realistically see Cowan playing on the second line over Knies or McKenna, but crazier things have happened, and if Cowan has a breakout season, anything is possible.

If we had to make an educated guess at which line Knies will be on this coming season, given what we know and predictions we can make, we think that Knies will start on the top line before eventually being moved to the second line as Gavin McKenna begins to show signs of franchise star potential. The last time the Leafs injected a No. 1 pick into the lineup was when the team drafted Auston Matthews in 2016, and he wound up becoming the team’s top-line centre and leading scorer in the 2016–17 season, so we wouldn’t be shocked at all to see McKenna follow in similar footsteps

For Knies, he will still be a crucial young piece for the Leafs, whether he is on either of the top two lines, and as mentioned earlier, moving down in favour of McKenna could even light a fire under Knies that leads to his best season yet.