Coming in as our second-ranked Toronto Maple Leafs prospect, there is justifiable hope that Fraser Minten can become a core piece of the team in the near future. The 6’2″ centre has already appeared in some NHL games after making the team out of training camp last season. Though it was an audition that did not last long, it showed that Minten has a number of NHL qualities, and perhaps an inevitable future in the world’s best league.
Let’s take a deeper look at what Minten brings to the ice, and what we might expect going forward.
Strengths/weaknesses
Minten excels at many of the details of the game, a player who should inspire more enthusiasm from coaches than he does from fans. A strong defensive centre, Minten is reliable in his commitment to positioning, defensive awareness, and work ethic. Minten is willing to do the dirty work, battling for contested ice across all zones, winning board battles, and forechecking with intensity. In some ways, Minten plays with a wisdom beyond his years, even excelling in the faceoff dot.
Minten projects to have the strength to win physical battles, and can make quality support passes in tight quarters, reading the ice quickly after a change in possession. His puck-moving ability and processing speed is important in these contexts, as Minten does not project to be much of a threat as a puck carrier. While he is a good enough skater to navigate the play in general, Minten is better off finding teammates with support passes instead of trying to transition the puck himself.
As such, Minten does not have elite-level puck control or an arsenal of dekes. Minten can score off of shots, but does not project to be a scorer from distance at the NHL level. Instead, Minten will find most of his offence in the trenches. His strength will be a factor here, which means that some production will only be unlocked with the maturation of his body. Minten is willing to go to the net front, just as he is in the corners. Minten should have some potential off the cycle, or as an in-zone attacker.
Production
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020–21 | Kamloops Blazers | WHL | 20 | 4 | 14 | 18 |
| 2021–22 | Kamloops Blazers | WHL | 67 | 20 | 35 | 55 |
| 2022–23 | Kamloops Blazers | WHL | 57 | 31 | 36 | 67 |
| 2023–24 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023–24 | Kamloops Blazers | WHL | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| 2023–24 | Saskatoon Blades | WHL | 36 | 19 | 19 | 38 |
While Minten has been able to increase his production since being drafted, some might even go as far as thinking his CHL production is underwhelming. Scoring at over a point per game is no small feat, but this shows how Minten is not focused on being a puck-dominant offensive dynamo.
Beyond the apparent stagnation of his raw numbers, there is some optimism to be found. There is some thought that Minten’s offensive game will translate well at higher levels.
Next steps
As alluded to, Minten’s game relies heavily on his strength and endurance. At just 20 years old, another season or two of development might be between Minten and his full strength on that basis alone. Building up his body will be important.
So too will be gaining experience and savvy, as well as refining his puck control. Minten’s path to the NHL will not be completely agnostic to production, but will instead rely on his ability to show coach Craig Berube that he can handle high-level defensive assignments. While this might be his strongest suit as a player, he will face a tall task taking on a top nine forward role for a team with aspirations to contend. This likely means playing with and against all-stars, as well as a prominent role on the penalty kill.
It is asking a lot of Minten to handle such a role for the Leafs in 2024–25, much less as a full-time centre. Instead of burying Minten with limited ice time, if he indeed is not ready, it would make sense to give Minten a larger role in the AHL.
Reading into his making the team out of camp last year might be folly. To some extent, Minten earned his way onto the team, but his four games hardly indicate much conviction from the Leafs on his fit for a whole season. Giving Minten a month to play a few games, to travel and train with the Leafs, might help illustrate a clear idea of the progress that Minten must still continue to strive for.
Either way, heading into his first professional season Minten will have his work cut out for him. Producing at about 0.5 points per game as an AHL rookie would be a solid 2024–25 season. Rather than any production threshold, it will be role that defines Minten’s progress in the AHL. It may yet be another year or two for Minten to build the body or the resume, but as a prospect, Minten has a safe floor. There is a very good chance that he will be a defensively capable bottom six centre who can be a mainstay of the penalty kill.
The upside is less likely, but getting more chances to exercise those muscles in the AHL might be the more beneficial option for now. Minten will need to continue pushing himself to add puck control and poise, which will unlock the strengths of his game. Creating and winning turnovers becomes more dangerous if Minten is deployed with skilled scorers, and even more if Minten can handle the puck enough to set them up. Minten’s game could be a perfect complement to the Leafs array of puck dominant skill players, and given refinement and chemistry perhaps even a top six centre in his own right.
The good news for Leafs Nation is that Minten has already been attacking his development with relentlessness, and also a tactical self-awareness. There is a trajectory that suggests that Minten embraces his play style, and that he is willing to specialize in specific areas of his skill set. Whatever the Leafs decide to do, Minten should be able to grow. Minten is still early on his journey, and will take at least another season or two before coming into his own as an NHLer.
24–25 projection
Minten should be a full time AHLer who handles big minutes in all situations. Growing on the penalty kill, while filling out his frame and adapting to the pro game will be a big step for Minten on his journey to the Leafs.
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