Though no games are played, the focus of Leafs Nation is unrelenting over the course of the offseason. Fans across the league are tracking storylines, players in new locales, or prospects who might make the jump into becoming core players. Amidst all this, Pontus Holmberg finds himself outside the fanfare.
With Craig Berube now behind the Leafs bench the organisational depth chart will be subject to change. Lineup philosophies might be switching drastically, a power vacuum that should inspire a focused and spirited training camp. Is Holmberg a lock to make the Leafs roster? Does he have an inside track to a top nine role? Or is there room for Holmberg to assert himself beyond that? Let’s take a closer look at what Holmberg brings to the ice to project what his future might hold.
Stats
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016–17 | Vasteras Jr. | Swe-Jr | 45 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| 2017–18 | Vaxjo HC | SHL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017–18 | Vasteras Jr. | Swe-Jr | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| 2018–19 | Vaxjo HC | SHL | 47 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| 2019–20 | Vaxjo HC | SHL | 52 | 7 | 10 | 17 |
| 2020–21 | Vaxjo HC 🏆 | SHL | 45 | 9 | 14 | 23 |
| 2021–22 | Vaxjo HC | SHL | 46 | 11 | 30 | 41 |
| 2021–22 | Toronto Marlies | AHL | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2022–23 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 37 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| 2022–23 | Toronto Marlies | AHL | 38 | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| 2023–24 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 54 | 7 | 10 | 17 |
| 2023–24 | Toronto Marlies | AHL | 11 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
Holmberg’s history
The 25-year-old Holmberg was drafted by the Leafs in the sixth round of the 2018 NHL Draft. Holmberg went undrafted in his first year of eligibility, posting modest numbers in Swedish Junior. During his draft+1 season, his junior production skyrocketed, earning him a few games in the Swedish Elite League. This growth was enough for the Leafs to draft him.
Through the next three seasons, Holmberg saw his production and effectiveness grow steadily, but remained modest all things considered. Everything changed during the SHL playoffs of the 2020–21 season. Holmberg scored a point per game, powering his team to a championship and winning playoff MVP. After years of steady growth, Holmberg had started to make a name for himself as a legitimate prospect.
The next season, his final year in Sweden, Holmberg backed up his developmental leap, scoring at roughly a point per game during the 2021–22 season. Following an early playoff exit, Holmberg joined the Toronto Marlies, scoring 4 points across 6 games. By age 22, Holmberg was knocking on the door of the NHL.
Holmberg has continued to make strides in the two seasons since. Splitting time between the AHL and NHL, Holmberg increased his effectiveness in both leagues, once again showing the steady progress that has defined his professional career.
Player profile
Holmberg has a lot of skills, but his greatest strength is the mental side of the game. Praised by his coaches for his vigilance in being in a responsible position, and by his teammates for his practice habits, Holmberg is dedicated to becoming his best self. This begins with a commitment to playing for his team more than himself, helping him to earn the trust of his coaches. Despite not being the biggest or strongest, Holmberg is willing to play a heavy game, forechecking, battling for pucks, being physical, and doing the legwork to win defensive position. His smarts allow him to play centre or wing as well, a versatile contributor to team offence and team defence.
Holmberg is a good skater, though built more on agility than speed. To some effect, this might help Holmberg thrive in tighter spaces, on smaller ice or in the playoffs, where he has consistently elevated his play. Holmberg has a good enough shot to score from the slot, using deception and accuracy more than power. Many of his goals will come from the slot or even closer to the net, demonstrating a willingness to get to tough areas.
Offensively, Holmberg’s greatest asset might be his playmaking. Though not a true dynamic playmaker like Mitch Marner or Max Domi, Holmberg can execute smart passes and work give-and-goes with teammates. Holmberg can find teammates off the boards during in-zone attacking, willing to carve out space in the chaos.
While some might think his offence more reliant on highly skilled linemates, teammates past and present attest to his growing skillset. If anything, Holmberg might do well to assert himself more on offence, his commitment to defence first holding him back from more production. We have seen Holmberg gain the skills and confidence to become an offensive focal point in the SHL and the AHL. Although he is a bit older and less heralded than most prospects or young NHLers, there is a trend that suggests Holmberg can become more than just a stable depth forward in the NHL.
Where does he fit
Even before considering the Leafs coaching change, it is difficult to imagine how Holmberg will be deployed next season. The Leafs are returning much of the same forward group as last season, where Holmberg played up and down the lineup after starting the year in the AHL. It is expected that Holmberg will be a staple in the Leafs lineup, most likely as a bottom six forward who can handle defensive responsibilities.
There is a chance that Holmberg is even a centre, as he did play down the middle in the AHL. With Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and David Kampf expected to fill three of the four spots, Holmberg does seem at least as natural a fit to the defensive responsibilities of a centre than William Nylander or Max Domi. Calle Jarnkrok and Fraser Minten are the most likely to be fighting with Holmberg for a third line centre role. If the Leafs elect to go with a more conventional lineup with two scoring lines, Holmberg is suited for a checking line role.
Either way, Holmberg should be able to find his way into a prominent role on this basis, even if only in a role similar to Kampf or fellow penalty kill specialist Connor Dewar. Holmberg has more offence to his game than these two, and should be able to be valuable support to higher-quality linemates.
Ready for more?
A more optimistic outlook would be that Holmberg is ready for full-time action alongside some of the Leafs star players. Expecting Holmberg to be a top six forward next season might be a bit rich, especially considering the slim chance of power play time. However, if the Leafs decide to spread out the “core four” forwards across three lines, Holmberg could be a quality complement.
Matthews has already publicly praised Holmberg’s skill and work ethic, and would bring out the best of Holmberg’s playmaking skills, especially during give-and-goes. There is a lot of competition for this spot, especially with playmakers, as Mitch Marner and Max Domi are the top candidates. That being said, Matthews is the Leafs best player, and could carry a line to allow the Leafs to load up elsewhere.
Tavares makes a lot of sense for Holmberg’s playing style as well. The pair did good work in limited minutes together last season, and Holmberg’s in-zone offensive game would be a compliment. To avoid putting too much on Holmberg’s plate the Leafs could offset a move up the lineup with playing the wing.
The most radical option would be to consider Holmberg as a centre alongside either Marner or Nylander. Holmberg would have to prove himself both offensively and defensively to be used in this spot. Nylander does make sense, as more of a shooting threat. Either way, while Holmberg does play a heavy game, he will be deployed alongside a bigger and stronger linemate.
This season
In the last year of his deal, a pending RFA, Holmberg will be looking to strike on the power vacuum of the Leafs lineup. In the end, the Leafs will try Holmberg in a number of different spots. Cementing a third line checking role and a leading penalty kill role could mean Holmberg helping to define the defensive identity of the Leafs. Even left without a star linemate, Holmberg can fit in nicely with Jarnkrok and Bobby McMann to form a quality checking line.
All things considered, if Holmberg were able to hit the 40-point mark it would constitute a strong season. Of course, his linemates will be a factor here. If given the chance, building chemistry with the Leafs best forwards will be important. With continued growth, the Leafs should try to extend Holmberg to a deal with some term, betting that his work ethic will continue to elevate his effectiveness. Holmberg is already at least close to the player that Kampf or Jarnkrok are, and has upside for more.
Big picture upside
It is an impossibly high bar, but Zach Hyman is an example of a player who has continued to build his skills, confidence, and effectiveness into his 30s. Their play styles are different, but it is not impossible that Holmberg’s best years are ahead of him, and that he might continue to defy the odds. As a 25-year-old, this season is not the be-all-end-all, but it is a crucial inflection point.
There is still a long way to go, but it was the playoffs of his third SHL season that saw Holmberg shatter expectations. Ahead of his third NHL season, Holmberg could be an important part of the internal development that the Leafs must capture to reach their goal.
