The Toronto Maple Leafs are spiralling, and a bad upcoming road trip could truly end their season. As the saying goes, you can’t make the playoffs early, but you can definitely miss them, and that’s where the Leafs are at right now.
And with no assets or desire to upgrade the roster in significant ways, we might be heading into the trade deadline as sellers for the first time in a decade.
So, with that being said, let’s take a look at who Toronto might choose to sell, and what they might be able to get back for their best players.
Could Toronto get a first-round pick?
Fetching a first-round pick at the deadline isn’t actually that difficult. There are plenty of guys around the league who are “worth” a mid-to-late first-rounder, which is what contending teams will be selling.
Just look at Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo. Both guys aren’t good, and both fetched a first plus a high-level prospect.
There are three players I could see the Leafs selling who could/should be able to net them a first: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brandon Carlo, and Bobby McMann.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
OEL is having a fantastic season. He’s been the Leafs best defenceman by far, is pulling his weight offensively and defensively, and his Stanley Cup ring will surely be valuable to whoever is trading for him.
With 16 points in 22 games and a miraculous +4 rating, OEL still has it. His offensive game is the best it’s been since his Arizona days, and his defensive game hasn’t dipped because of it. He’s not the shutdown type most teams are looking for, but a point-producing second-pair defenceman is easily worth a first-rounder.
He also cares, which teams see as valuable. He’s constantly chirping and defending himself and teammates, something the Leafs are not good at.
Yes, OEL is 34 with two years left on his deal after this season, but at $3.5M a year, his cap hit is super manageable. The Leafs could also retain, which would net them another mid-round pick.
Brandon Carlo
As I said, Carlo is not good. But he’s right-handed, 6’5, and has a reputation as a good defender.
He’s been truly terrible this season, at best a bottom-pairing shutdown defenceman with no bite or fight. But he was also bad last year in Boston, and Brad Treliving still sent a first and his second-best prospect for him.
There are bad GMs out there who will see Carlo’s physical features and past success and be enamoured.
Carlo’s cap hit of under $3.5M for this season and next is small, and again, the Leafs could retain (they’d probably need to in this case) to get Carlo’s value to the point of a first-rounder.
Is Carlo good enough to be worth that much? Absolutely not. Would someone probably pay it? Yes.
Bobby McMann
A true rental, McMann would have to be on pace for another 20-goal season for this to happen. But as we all know, McMann is a versatile, fast, scoring winger who would be an asset for any contender.
Twenty-goal scorers don’t grow on trees, and we’ve seen lesser players go for more (I’m looking at you, Scott Laughton). McMann isn’t quite a game-breaker, but his forechecking ability, fit anywhere in a lineup, and finishing touch make him very valuable.
And his minuscule cap hit of $1.35M means he’s an easy trade to just about anyone.
More than OEL or Carlo, McMann’s value depends very much on how he plays the rest of the year. The Leafs could be inclined to play him in the top-six to inflate his point totals, giving them just an extra bit of juice in negotiations.
If he can get to a 20-goal, 40-point pace, he might just net Toronto a first-rounder.
The depth options
Toronto has plenty of mid-level assets, solid NHLers who won’t get you a haul but can help most teams for a third or fourth round pick. These picks aren’t nothing, and with so few of their own picks left, it would be nice for the Leafs to pick up a good chunk of them for the next couple of drafts.
Scott Laughton
Would it hurt to trade Laughton for a third-rounder after giving up a first and Nikita Grebenkin for him? Yes, it would. Will that scare off Brad from dealing him? Absolutely! But is he worth holding on to? I don’t know, maybe.
Laughton has done nothing in the blue and white, partially due to injury. He’s a bottom-sixer that Treliving saw as a needle-mover for whatever reason, and that’s just not who he is.
But he is a solid depth forward who can skate and produce in the right situation. He’d easily get you a decent pick.
Nic Roy
Like Laughton, Roy has disappointed in Toronto so far. He’s hurt now, but has just four points in his 19 games this year.
It’s much of the same with Roy compared to Laughton. Both are fine, have disappointed in Toronto, and would still help most teams in their bottom-six. Roy’s reputation was very good coming into this season, so maybe some GM out there still believes.
Matias Maccelli
If Craig Berube isn’t going to like Maccelli, then Treliving might as well trade him. In my opinion, he’s been the best of the three new forwards, producing nine points with four goals so far.
He’s weak defensively and provides no grit whatsoever, but points matter in the NHL, and he’s the best point producer the Leafs have to offer. Treliving sent a third-rounder for him, and he could probably get a fourth back. Not the end of the world, but not great from ol’ Brad.
Not long to turn it around
If the Leafs don’t want to be sellers, they have to turn this thing around quickly. Their ship is sinking, and before long there will be too much water on board to find any solution.
But if they do end up selling (which I think they should), they have quite a few decent assets to send packing. Do I want Brad making any more trades for this franchise? No, not at all. But at this point, it’s the most likely scenario.
Let’s just hope they start winning, and soon.
