In a cruel twist of fate for Leaf fans, the team is in something of a golden era, yet has found virtually no playoff success. Many of the finest players of franchise history are in their primes, resulting in a near decade of regular season success, yet even a division title has eluded them. At the centre of it all are the trio of former top 10 draft picks Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander.
Although they all played as rookies in the 2016–17 season, each of their trajectories has plotted their own course. Matthews is the clear front-runner, freshly minted as team captain, and has been full value as a star player since entering the league. Entering the first year of a new four year contract, Matthews is cemented as the centrepiece of the Leafs operation.
However, there is a member of the Leafs core that is signed for longer, as Nylander is in the first year of an eight-year deal. The course that Nylander has plotted has been much more uneven, and true to the salary cap era, greatly impacted by cap hits and contracts. Coming off of a cap hit of under $7M, Nylander will now bear the burden of living up to $11.5M. In examining his past and his skill set, let us take a closer look at if Nylander is ready to take on the future.
Stats
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Sodertalje SK Jr. | Swe-Jr | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 2012-13 | Sodertalje SK Jr. | Swe-Jr | 27 | 15 | 28 | 43 |
| 2012-13 | Sodertalje SK | Swe-1 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 2013-14 | MoDo Jr. | Swe-Jr | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2013-14 | Sodertalje SK | Swe-1 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 19 |
| 2013-14 | Rogle BK Angelholm | Swe-1 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 2013-14 | MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik | SweHL | 22 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 2014-15 | MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik | SweHL | 21 | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| 2014-15 | Toronto Marlies | AHL | 37 | 14 | 18 | 32 |
| 2015-16 | Toronto Marlies | AHL | 38 | 18 | 27 | 45 |
| 2015-16 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 22 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 2016-17 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 81 | 22 | 39 | 61 |
| 2017-18 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 82 | 20 | 41 | 61 |
| 2018-19 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 54 | 7 | 20 | 27 |
| 2019-20 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 68 | 31 | 28 | 59 |
| 2020-21 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 51 | 17 | 25 | 42 |
| 2021-22 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 81 | 34 | 46 | 80 |
| 2022-23 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 82 | 40 | 47 | 87 |
| 2023-24 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 82 | 40 | 58 | 98 |
Beginnings
The son of a prominent NHLer and a highly rated NHL prospect himself, there was never going to be any place to hide for Nylander. Playing for two Allsvenskan teams and one SHL team during his draft year, Nylander put up promising offensive numbers. His skill and speed were undeniable, and the Leafs did well to select him eighth overall in the 2024 NHL Draft.
Nylander would split time in his post-draft season as well, taking a huge step forward by producing at roughly a point per game through halves of SHL and AHL seasons. It would not be enough to make the NHL, as Nylander began his second post draft season in the AHL. Perhaps it was that the Leafs were not yet convinced, or perhaps Nylander was better off being spared from most of the “dignified” tanking that occurred in the 2015–16 season.
Regardless, Nylander showed obvious growth, and earned a late-season audition with the Leafs. His skill and poise were evident, a welcome sight on a Leafs team bereft of talent.
His NHL career began in earnest alongside fellow rookies in Matthews and Marner. Nylander saw instant success, scoring 61 points in each of his first two seasons. The collective excellence of the trio was remarkable, but as the oldest member of the three, it was not long before Nylander became seen as the third most impactful.
Rough patch
This set the stage for the obvious low point of Nylander’s career, where a contract holdout that made it to the proverbial 11th hour would skew the conversation. This was compounded by inarguably his worst season as a Leaf, which certainly did not help matters. In the end, his roughly $6.9 cap hit was a bargain for the Leafs, but at the time the deal represented evidence that the Leafs, and/or GM Kyle Dubas, would lose every contract negotiation going forward.
Between the hotbed of the Leafs market, the public nature of the contract standoff, the Leafs inability to win in the playoffs, and his substandard performance, consensus quickly soured on Nylander. This narrative took on a life of its own, drawing in hot tales from across the league, the memeification of his perceived faults, and to an extent the faults of the Leafs as a whole. In the eyes of many the dye was cast on Nylander, and this was the genesis of the criticisms that would be held against him for years to come.
Growth
Somehow, this storm was navigated by Nylander, who came back into form during the 2019–20 season, reaching the 30-goal mark for the first time before the league, and the world, shut down. Nylander would play well during the North Division 2020–21 season as well. The resurgence was enough to justify his contract, but there was some doubt that Nylander could become a truly elite player. The skills were evident, but the production was not reflective of that.
With a relatively regular schedule resuming in 2021–22, Nylander slowly began, or perhaps continued, his upward trajectory. Nylander would increase his point totals, but an increased physicality and compete level was evident. Reaching the 80-point plateau for the first time in 2021–22, Nylander has increased his scoring and his overall effectiveness in each season since. His back-to-back 40-goal seasons is impressive, but his maturation as a player is even more so.
With a fair share of controversy, Nylander’s off-ice personality seems to have helped him in the long run. Nylander comes across as relaxed and affable, taking public transit to home games, and notoriously leaving getting dressed before the game to the last minute. At his core, there is another side to Nylander, a driven perfectionist who has honed skills and techniques with a passion and determination.
Ferocity and leadership
This more ferocious side has been visible in recent years. Physicality and off-puck engagement have been areas which Nylander has continually taken strides in. To some extent, we should expect continued growth here, as Nylander has shown that he is willing to adapt his approach to the game.
An infamous scene on the Leafs bench in Game 5 of the 2023–24 playoff series against the Boston Bruins provided an illustration of this growing intense persona, as Nylander spoke up in a tense moment. Although the exchange was heated, Nylander always backed his teammates, expressing that his comments came from a supportive place. Ultimately the playoff run would be a tragedy, but on a Leafs bench that is notoriously referred to as quiet this was a clear sign that Nylander has become more of a leader.
If we go back through the years, Nylander has often taken things in stride. At times he was moved to the net front on the power play, despite being a natural fit on the flanks. Nearly every playoff Nylander finds himself shuffled out of a top six role, as well, instead operating as a one-man offensive x-factor deeper in the lineup. If not that, Nylander is moved to centre in playoff games, rich considering that he might be able to play down the middle in general.
It is curious that the Leafs continue to try Nylander at centre only in desperation, instead of experimenting more often during the regular season. Again, Nylander has taken this all in stride, as there have not been reports of him being unhappy with his usage.
Fit
With a new coach behind the bench, the Leafs might explore some different lineup options, reviving the yearly debate of if the Leafs should try to commit to Nylander as a centre. Time will tell exactly how dramatically Craig Berube will deviate from what we have come to expect from a Leafs lineup. For now, Nylander has been on John Tavares’ wing, at times flip-flopping with Marner on the top two lines.
Time as Matthew’s winger might be difficult for Nylander to come by. Marner and Matthews seem to prefer to be on the same line, and Max Domi showed impressive chemistry in this spot as well. Berube seems to value having some muscle on each line, after all, he won a Stanley Cup with Sammy Blais on his top power play unit.
Reuniting with Tavares would not be a surprise, as the duo have been good together. In a sense they might seem underwhelming at times only because of Matthews’ surreal goal-scoring talents. Matthew Knies and Bobby McMann, or perhaps Calle Jarnkrok can fill in as the worker to complete these star duos.
The real intrigue comes with a move to centre, or if the Leafs elect to split the core four across three lines. With Tavares’ contract up at the end of the season, or if age catches up to him, the Leafs might be left with quite a hole down the middle. Nylander is not the only option the Leafs have, but the team’s history of flirting with the concept of him as a centre does show that it is within the realm of possibility. Regardless, Nylander will likely play a role in any succession plans down the middle, perhaps even as a winger for Pontus Holmberg should he earn a chance in a top nine centre role.
Given his talents and his growing leadership qualities, it is possible that we continue to see evolution from Nylander. It is entirely possible that Nylander is better able to leverage and apply his skills, and it is likely that the Leafs will need him to do so if they are to achieve their goal.
