Earlier this week we covered Roni Hirvonen, whose stock amongst pundits and scouts has fallen over the last year due to an injury-plagued, low offensive output first season in North America.
Today, we’ll be covering another prospect who also had a pedestrian 2023–24 season, Nicholas Moldenhauer.
Moldenhauer’s year, unlike Hirvonen’s, was injury-free, but the undersized forward struggled to find offensive consistency in his first year of collegiate hockey.
Today, I’ll be covering the intriguing Michigan product, his strengths and weaknesses, and why out of all of the Toronto Maple Leafs depth prospects, Moldenhauer is the one of the players I’m most excited for from an NHL projection perspective.
Moldenhauer’s early progress
Moldenhauer was one of the more highly touted players in his draft class entering his draft year, however after suffering from health issues and a scary injury at the start of the season he saw a very predictable fall in his draft stock. In that respect, it was reminiscent of Timothy Liljegren’s fall from a consensus top-five pick in his draft year down to 17 on draft night. In Moldenhauer’s case, missing over 15 games to start the year allowed Toronto to draft him 95th overall in 2022.
Of the players in this tier of Leafs prospect, Moldenhauer has by far the most translatable and complete toolkit offensively.
He finished his season strong in 2021–22, where he was point-per-game and one of the most important players on the Chicago Steel. It’s no surprise Toronto was a huge fan of his game, as Ryan Hardy, who had recruited Moldenhauer as a member of the Steel’s front office, had joined the Leafs organization at the start of the year.
There was a lot of buzz for Moldenhauer after the 2022–23 season. Rankings had him in Toronto’s top five, and on the surface, it was very justifiable. It was hard to look at his counting stats in his second year with Chicago and not think there was a special player, a potential diamond in the rough.
Moldenhauer tore up the USHL in his DY+1 where he put his health concerns in the rearview mirror, en route to 30 goals and 75 points in 55 games for the Chicago Steel. I, however, was a bit hesitant to stick Moldenhauer into that top echelon of prospect.
It’s important to keep in mind that most blue chip prospects are in the NCAA by their DY+1. Just look at Trevor Connelly’s stats this past season for the Tri-City Storm. He was putting up Moldenhauer’s numbers but one year earlier in his development. Moldenhauer only committed to the University of Michigan for his DY+2, so the ridiculous DY+1 stats he put up in the USHL gave some fans a misconception as to what his true offensive ceiling was.
While 2022–23 was a ridiculous offensive season for Moldenhauer, there were concerns about his work ethic and motor defensively, but he showed a ton of ability on the puck. This was particularly exciting at the time given Toronto’s need for secondary offensive creators in their bottom six (which still exists).
Moldenhauer’s 2023–24 season
Moldenhauer had a rough first season with Michigan last year. There was excitement to see him play with guys like Rutger McGroarty, Gavin Brindley, Frank Nazar and Seamus Casey. I was particularly excited to see how Moldenhauer’s passing ability could pair with a guy like Gavin Brindley, whose scoring ability and nose for the net would’ve made for a wonderful connection.
Unfortunately for Moldenhauer, he found himself on the third line all year, rarely playing with any of the aforementioned prospects and spending most of his ice time with a bevy of Michigan’s bottom six staples.
I’d like to say that a lot of his offensive struggles this past season outside of his linemates were just the difficulties adjusting to the college game but unfortunately, the production doesn’t quite paint that picture.
It’s not as if Moldenhauer had a hot end of the season and that his production over 41 games was heavily weighed down by a really bad first half of the year. His second-half production was actually worse than the first. He tallied 13 points over his first 20 games and only eight in his last 21.
He looked better on tape as the season progressed and he probably deserved a better result on the scorecard for his efforts. His work along the boards, using his lower centre of gravity to elude defenders and create space to find his teammates in dangerous areas of the ice, was much more of what we were used to seeing based on his tape the year prior, but the lack of production was always going to be a sour point.
Moldenhauer deserves some credit, as he adjusted well to the challenge of filling in a less offensive-minded role at Michigan and his habits to track back defensively were much improved compared to his last year in the USHL.
There’s still hope that in an elevated role the offensive production will improve, but the question is whether Moldenhauer will get that opportunity with Michigan. Rutger McGroarty leaving to play for the Pittsburgh Penguins next season is a positive development for Moldenhauer in that aspect, who now has an inside track into a top-six role with Michigan next year as an upperclassman.
Strengths
When Moldenhauer is in form, he’s a 200-foot player with great passing vision and feel. His skating is above average, and while it’s not necessarily a strength, it’s more than sufficient when you pair it with his playmaking ability and newfound attention to detail defensively.
He always keeps his feet moving and uses little fakes and his great edgework to buy time and space to make plays to his teammates. His hands, while not an elite trait, are underrated and there’s more than enough skill there for him to be an efficient NHL player offensively.
He can be strong on the forecheck when he chooses to be, he was much more engaged this past season physically when it came to finishing his checks, but his best forechecking shifts are usually when he gets in using his stick and body positioning to win back pucks.
Moldenhauer’s shot, while also not elite by any means, is sufficient to have some medium of success at the NHL level. He’d be doing himself a favour if he was willing to utilize that shot more frequently but the tendency of the player seems to heavily lean passing over shooting.
When he does get the puck on the net, good things tend to happen. His release is deceptive enough that he can sift shots through traffic and cause chaos. Moldenhauer has made some incredible plays where his edge work and elusiveness have allowed him to work to the middle of the ice for dangerous scoring opportunities.
Moldenhauer’s pass-first game and improved work ethic off the puck lend to a potential play-driving, middle-six player for the Leafs, but there are areas he will have to iron out and improve to fulfill that potential.
Weaknesses
In a world where Moldenhauer can improve his puck skills and make an adjustment in his shooting versus passing tendency, there could be a legitimate high-end, middle-six play driver here.
Unfortunately, there hasn’t been a whole ton of improvement offensively from this past season for Moldenhauer, and with his development roadmap hindered by Michigan’s ability to recruit elite talent, there are questions as to if he’ll have the chance to gain that confidence and skillset before he leaves.
This next season is going to be pivotal for Moldenhauer. In his DY+1 we saw an insanely creative playmaker who used his strong edgework and strength on the puck to generate quality chances for his teammates and become the focal point of the team’s transition build-up and power play.
In his DY+2, we saw a player buried on the depth chart of an elite team and saw his offence suffer from it. We did, however, also see him build his lower body strength to compete against men, improve his defensive habits, and engage physically more consistently.
If Moldenhauer can put both ends of that spectrum together in his DY+3, Ryan Hardy’s faith in him back in 2020 will not have been misplaced.
Player comps and looking ahead
This may be a bit optimistic, but there’s a world where Moldenhauer starts the year as Michigan’s 2C and a legit piece on their first power play unit.
While Moldenhauer didn’t excel in his role as 3C last year for Michigan, he was more than serviceable and has more experience under head coach Brandon Naurato’s system.
As of right now he projects a lot like Alex Kerfoot. They have the same physical profile, and both have C/W flexibility. Given his current skillset, Moldenhauer is best as a complementary piece in a middle-six role who isn’t super physical but can play a responsible defensive game and can get in on the forecheck with his stick work and create some opportunities as a playmaker.
There are also parallels between the two to this point in their college careers. Like Moldenhauer, Kerfoot didn’t make his jump into the NCAA until his DY+2 for Harvard where he started at 0.56 points per game that year (Moldenhauer’s numbers are just a tick under that).
Kerfoot ended up going point-per-game the year after and stayed all four years of college, spending his last season as Harvard’s captain. While it’s unlikely Moldenhauer stays all four years as well, there’s the precedent that you can be a useful player at the NHL level even with a pretty pedestrian DY+2 NCAA season.
There’s a lot to like about Moldenhauer, he’s got the baseline set of skills, the confidence and assertiveness offensively need to come together against that higher level of competition in the NCAA. If we can see a version of Moldenhauer with the defensive habits we saw last year at Michigan, and the dynamic offensive player we saw with Chicago in the USHL, there’s going to be a really good NHL player there. I just have a gut feeling that he’ll be able to put it together this year.
Conclusion
Two down, one to go!
Of the three prospects in this series, Moldenhauer has easily the most translatable offensive skillset. Everyone should be tuning into Michigan’s first game on October 5th against Minnesota State.
Where in the lineup the 20-year-old centre starts in that game will have a significant early projection on how his season will go.
With a strong 2024–25 season, Moldenhauer can throw himself into contention at Maple Leafs camp for a roster spot on opening night in 2025–26, another weak year offensively will drastically dampen his NHL projectability.
Lastly, before I sign off, keep an eye out on Friday when the last prospect in this series will be unveiled! While Moldenhauer has the best play-driving ability in this group, this last player is the most exciting from a physical and technical skill perspective. His development this season is one I’m particularly interested in tracking.
