The Toronto Maple Leafs have seen their prospect pool shrink and degrade over the past two or so years. The pool has seen core players, like Matthew Knies and Joseph Woll, graduate full-time to the big leagues, taking on prominent roles. Other Dubas-era holdovers, like Brandon Lisowsky and Mikey Koster, have left the system, having never been tendered an ELC.
With little draft capital to work with over the past few years, Toronto’s mission remains clear: capturing the ever-elusive Stanley Cup for the first time since 1967.
Most reputable sources and rankings across the league have Toronto’s current prospect pool somewhere between 20th and 25th in the league. Much of that comes down to the lack of truly exciting top-of-the-lineup talents in the system.
But there are some potential diamonds in the rough, so we’ll be going through three prospects in the Leafs system that are flying under the radar and are poised to have huge 2024–25 seasons, starting with Roni Hirvonen.
A bit of background
In a 2023–24 season where our #1 ranked Leafs prospect Easton Cowan took the OHL by storm, our #2 prospect Fraser Minten made the Leafs out of camp and captained Canada at the WJC, and #4 ranked Nikita Grebyonkin was one of the three best U24 players in the KHL, you would be forgiven if Hirvonen wasn’t a player on your radar.
I’ve been a huge fan of Hirvonen for a few years now. Funny enough, despite the low hit rate on Finnish-drafted players over the last 10 or so years, some of my favourite prospects in the Leafs system have been from Finland. In Hirvonen’s case, I’ve found it super difficult to not root for him and love his game. I anticipate that when Leafs fans see him with the Marlies this year they’ll agree with me.
The 2020 second-round pick was stapled as the quintessential Leafs pick under prior General Manager Kyle Dubas. After a solid pro season with Assat in the Finnish Elite League in his draft year, the 5’9” centre with winger flexibility was labelled by many to just be another member of Toronto’s ongoing project of drafting small, skilled players. Hirvonen, however, is the definition of not judging a book by its cover.
Hirvonen’s early progress
Like Mikko Kokkonen and Topi Niemela, Roni Hirvonen enjoyed a few really solid years in the Liiga, split between stints with Assat and HIFK. He was a consistent offensive producer in that league, with his best season coming in 2021–22 when he had 26 points in 46 games.
His development curve, in that respect, has been much more similar to Mikko Kokkonen than Topi Niemela. While Niemela was a player whose play fluctuated heavily from year to year in Finland, Kokkonen and Hirvonen’s performance and playstyle have remained relatively static over their entire Liiga career.
Like Fraser Minten, Hirvonen captained his nation at the WJC in his DY+2, finishing with a silver that year after falling to Canada in a tight gold medal game. Hirvonen was a point-per-game that tournament and finished as a key piece for the Fins on both special teams units. After a slight dip in production after returning to HIFK on loan in 2022–23, Toronto decided to bring the undersized forward to North America for the 2023–24 season.
Last season for Hirvonen
Unfortunately, Hirvonen’s jump to the North American game in his DY+4 couldn’t have started much worse than it did.
Before the season even started, his father passed away. Just weeks later, he was subsequently sidelined after being concussed from a brutal open ice hit by Nolan Dillingham at Maple Leafs development camp.
Then, during the season, he suffered an eye injury from an errant stick that raised questions about whether he would ever play hockey again. In such a context, in addition to having to adapt to the much higher-paced North American game, it’s hard to be too critical of Hirvonen’s season.
It’s easy to see this past year as essentially a lost year of development for Hirvonen, who never really got himself going at any point having been mired with the baggage of adjusting to a new style of game, mourning his father, and some brutal injuries.
He was still able to finish the season with 37 games played, although he only managed a measly 13 points. Despite all this, Hirvoven is still a name to watch, ready to prove himself this season.
Strengths
Small in stature, but big in heart and mental fortitude, Hirvonen’s got intangibles in spades and that mentality reflects in his play on the ice. This is one of the main reasons I’m confident that despite a disjointed debut in North America, he will have a bounce-back season in 2024–25.
As I mentioned in my player card for him, his playstyle reminds me of a bulldog or pitbull. He’s just so energetic, feisty, and physical at his size. Like a lot of the prospects in the Leafs system, Hirvonen’s motor is out of this world. He really works hard on the forecheck and during board battles; he’s always winning pucks in the offensive zone and trying to extend plays and zone time with sheer effort.
He possesses a super efficient transition game where he opts to snap quick passes to teammates in stride over carrying the puck in on his own. While his hands and speed are only average to above average, his “slipperiness” and change in direction complement those traits well and allow him to be effective in tight spaces.
In general, he has great habits defensively from a scanning and positioning perspective, and he’s consistently one of the most engaged players on the ice every game. There’s real potential in him as a two-way player.
Weaknesses
For Hirvonen, the on-ice awareness needs to improve. His willingness to get into the dirty areas of the ice and to try to make a play are strengths, but he needs to keep his head up and be aware of his surroundings, especially in transition.
He’s already taken some brutal hits (see, the Dillingham hit) and that will add up over time if it doesn’t improve, especially at his size. He’s a super versatile player and he’s always willing to engage physically, but his body isn’t at the point where he can bring that style of play to the NHL full-time without running into durability concerns.
If he can play his brand of hockey without finding himself flitting back and forth between the roster and IR, the skillset is there to be an everyday NHLer.
Productivity is also a slight concern, and while he does a lot of the little things right, and he’s going to contribute positively on the ice every time he hops on for a shift, unfortunately, games are won by real goals not expected ones.
Hirvonen will have to show a jump or progression in his production to reach that third line, energy forward ceiling. He’s been pretty much a 35–40 point pace player (over 82 games) his entire career in Liiga, but with the wealth of similar options Toronto has next year with the Marlies, Hirvonen needs to find himself on the stat sheet more often to garner legitimate NHL attention.
Player comps and what’s ahead for Hirvonen
The key goal for Hirvonen this season is to continue to grow on ice awareness to avoid unnecessary punishment and continue to get stronger and build on acclimating to North American hockey. He’ll likely start the season in a top nine role given the Marlies are a bit thinner down the middle, so it’ll be important for him to get off to a good start and not get jumped by a guy like Jacob Quillan.
An NHL call-up for Hirvonen in 2024–25 might be unlikely, but he’s someone who could rise back up a ton of prospect rankings by this time next year by becoming one of the Marlies’ best forwards this coming season.
As you can see in my player card, I see shades of Brendan Gallagher in Hirvonen. The physical style of game and the good but not elite tool kit in that frame make the Montreal Canadiens veteran the dream scenario for Leafs fans.
As much as I love Hirvonen however, prime Gallagher was a different monster, and I just can’t quite see Hirvonen being anywhere close to that version the Canadiens forward.
In terms of NHL projection, I think Hirvonen likely tops out as a bottom-six, energy player who can chip in offensively and play a two-way game. There’s some penalty kill value there and he can be a much more impactful version of guys like Zach Aston-Reese or Noah Gregor whom the Leafs have rotated in that fourth-line role over the years.
While he’s not the most eye-popping talent in this prospect pool, I think his playstyle at his size will endear him to Leafs faithful.
Conclusion
There you have it! The first of three darkhorse prospects in the Leafs system to keep an eye out for this coming season.
Despite Toronto’s weakened prospect pool, there are still a ton of really intriguing options that have the potential to completely change the outlook of the team’s future. Hirvonen is one of them, hopefully able to help a Leafs bottom six that has struggled to find an identity for the last few years.
In the meantime, I guess we’ll just enjoy watching Auston Matthews ripping one bar down off a William Nylander feed.
