This has been a very good season for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The team leads the Atlantic Division in points with 26 and has just six losses through the first 20 games. Despite Auston Matthews missing games, the team has gotten outstanding goaltending and exceptional defence to help them limit chances against, and with the amount of elite offence up front, the team has been rolling.
The challenges with this team are at centre. Without Matthews in the lineup, the team has rolled John Tavares as the top-line centre, then Pontus Holmberg, Fraser Minten, David Kampf, and now Connor Dewar have filled out the other three lines. Not great for a cup contender. Combined, the bottom three centremen have 304 NHL games between them.
While Matthews does help, adding more strength in this position would be helpful. The other thing that this team has really been lacking is grit. There is not enough of that hard-nosed spirit that is so needed in the playoffs. The Leafs have always been fine in the regular season, but without that intensity, the team seems to shrink in the playoffs.
This is what makes a player like Nazem Kadri so intriguing. Not only is he a Toronto-born player, he has traditionally been a very good centreman with the grit that the team so desperately needs. Is there a fit here?
What has happened to Kadri since he left Toronto?
Following the 2019 playoffs, Kadri was traded to the Colorado Avalanche in the Tyson Barrie trade, and played with the team for three seasons. In those seasons he put up 36 points in 51 games, 32 points in 56 games, then a whopping 87 points in 71 games as the Colorado Avalanche won the Stanley Cup.
In his time in Colorado, he showed himself to be a playoff performer. His first season saw him put up 18 points in 15 playoff games and then in his third season, he had 15 points in 18 games to help the team win the cup. He put up those numbers despite being injured due to a cross-check from the Edmonton Oilers’ Evander Kane and undergoing thumb surgery mid-playoffs. He returned for the finals in Game 4 and would score the overtime winning goal that game.
Following that win, he signed with the then GM Brad Treliving and the Calgary Flames on a seven-year deal worth $49 million. This is year three of that deal, with four more seasons to go after this year.
His first two seasons in Calgary were very productive, putting up 56 points in his first season with the team. He did this while also being a positive shot attempts player, with a 57.6% Corsi For %. The following year he was tasked with playing mostly alongside two younger players in Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil, and he had 75 points in 82 games, one of the only bright spots on his team that year.
This year has not gone nearly as well, as Kadri has been shuffled around to find linemates that work. Despite the team’s success, he has been hardly as good as he once was with the team and has 11 points in 21 games. He also owns the worst +/- on the team at a -12, with the next closest player at just -6. Not great.
The underlying metrics are not great for Kadri this season, but the potential for him to return to being a 60–70 point player is still very much there.
Is there a fit in Toronto?
It’s very possible that Kadri could use a change of scenery to get his mojo back, and going back to Toronto where he grew up may be just what he needs. GM Brad Treliving moved out Sean Monahan and paid a premium at the time to do so just to acquire Kadri, and if there is one guy in the league who really knows him it’s Tre. There’s one connection.
Throw in the team’s need for centre depth, the history with Kadri and Toronto, as well as the fact that Calgary is looking to get younger and you have the makings of a fit between the two sides. It feels like Toronto is one destination that Kadri would waive his no-movement clause to go to.
In order for this to work, the Leafs would need the Flames to retain salary on the transaction, and would almost certainly need them to retain the maximum of 50%. That would be a heavy ask for a player that is on contract for as much longer as he is.
Then the Leafs would need to move money out to fit him under the cap. With an estimated $2.3M in cap room as of the trade deadline, the Leafs would need to move at least another $1.2M to make the deal on deadline day, or more if they want to acquire him sooner. Dewar’s $1.18M contract would be a natural starting point.
Now Calgary is not going to accept Kadri with retained salary for Dewar alone. The deal would need to include at least another pick and a high-end prospect to make it worth Calgary’s while. The Flames are also in need of centres, but despite their hot start, they are still not really a cup contender the way the Leafs, Oilers and others are. They are likely going to ask for a player like Minten, Easton Cowan, or Roni Hirvonen plus a pick or two for the retention.
If the Leafs are going to make this deal work, it’s going to cost them a pretty penny, but to acquire an elite middle-six centre is going to cost a lot regardless. Given where the team is in its winning window, and with this being the last season with Tavares and Mitch Marner on their current contracts, it may make sense to go after a big fish like Kadri.
Is it possible that this happens? Yes it’s possible. Does it make sense for the Leafs? On paper, absolutely. But is the cost worth the production? That’s the big question. Kadri will be 38 years old when this deal is done in 2029 and even with the rising cap, it’s a big risk to take on an older player on a longer-term deal where you know his production is going to go down over time.
But Kadri also has a lot of experience mentoring younger players and he may be a helpful bridge piece as the Leafs look to keep the winning window open from the Matthews and Marner era into the Knies and Co era. He’s a Stanley Cup winner who was born and raised in the city, and would be a great addition to the team. While I don’t think it will happen just due to the number of hurdles and the cost to make it happen, it would be well worth the Leaf’s time to call GM Craig Conroy up in Calgary and at least inquire about the cost.
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