The Toronto Maple Leafs are a .500 team through the first 18 games of the season. Going into the year, it was expected that the Leafs would get off to a slow start, as they normally do. Usually by now, they have figured it out and are on the ascension. However, with how November has gone so far, many are wondering if this team is any good.
This year isn’t going as planned. Injuries have already piled up out of the gate. More recently, captain Auston Matthews suffered a lower-body injury and is expected to miss a week. And the play has been very uninspiring, the polar opposite of last season.
The Leafs’ odds to make the playoffs are currently at 19%, with the odds of getting through the first round, if they make it, are 8.5%. I think everyone is asking the question: What is wrong with the Toronto Maple Leafs?
Is it culture?
We have talked a lot this year about how the culture hasn’t seemingly changed. The Leafs still don’t play a full 60 minutes, and often only show up in the last 15 minutes of the third period. Combine this with a lack of intensity, poor team defence, and a lack of grit, and we have the same old disastrous recipe.
However, what’s frustrating is that this team is capable of change. We saw it last season in Craig Berube’s first season as head coach. The team played a different brand of hockey, with the team dumping and chasing, aggressive on the forecheck, and being overall more physical. It wasn’t perfect by any stretch of the imagination. The team was still prone to dumping but not chasing. But it was a team that looked different from previous iterations.
So what has changed this year? Obviously, no Mitch Marner. But even without Marner, that doesn’t explain why the Leafs have seemingly forgotten how to play their new system. We are not privy to what goes on in the locker room, but Auston Matthews needs to be a better leader. As the team captain, he should be leading by example and holding his teammates to a higher standard.
Is the problem that the Leafs lack on-ice leadership? At this point, if this veteran Leafs’ team needs on-ice leadership to lead the way, then the plot is already lost. John Tavares has 11 goals and looks vintage Tavares. Matthew Knies is on pace for 100 points this season and looks to be a leader. Both play with intensity and heart every shift. What more is needed?
Forcing a square peg into a round hole?
Then there is the other side of the equation: the coaching style does not work for this group. When watching the first 18 games, this seems convincing. Craig Berube, despite only being in his second year, may already find himself on the hot seat.
This isn’t without any evidence. Some point to how Matthews has been utilized against the opposition’s top players:
Table 1. Table showing the percentage of Auston Matthews’ time on ice (TOI) against the top competition.
| Season | Auston Matthews’ TOI Against Top Competition |
|---|---|
| 2021–22 | 30% |
| 2022–23 | 31% |
| 2023–24 | 40% |
| 2024–25 | 48% |
Clearly, under Berube, Matthews plays more against the top opposition than in previous years. In 2021–22, Matthews scored 60 goals and played 30% of his time against top competition. In 2023–24, Matthews scored a historic 69 goals and played 40% of his time against top competition. Compared to other star players, Nathan MacKinnon played 35% and Connor McDavid played 34% against top competition last season.
The argument could be made that utilizing Matthews in this way is the wrong move. Last year, Matthews scored 33 goals, 45 assists for 78 points in 67 games. While he was injured for a sizeable portion of the season, this is still a down year for his standards. Given the results so far this year, it becomes clear that he is not being utilized optimally.
The team outside of Matthews
If we look beyond how Matthews is utilized, it could be that the team just isn’t built for Berube-style hockey. This team has always been a possession and rush team under Sheldon Keefe, and we saw the team excel (except for the power play). These teams were not overly physical, and when the time and space to make decisions was shortened during the playoffs, the team did not adapt and crumbled under the pressure.
At some point, the players are who they are, and it’s up to the general manager to bring in players who fit the system. We can see Brad Treliving doing so by bringing in players such as Nicolas Roy, Scott Laughton, and Steven Lorentz.
At this point, the roster has gone through considerable turnover and is pretty much Treliving’s design. These are players who have played a similar style to how Berube wants the team to play. However, if the stars don’t adapt, then the team will not go very far. We haven’t really seen Matthews or William Nylander play the game how Berube wants them to.
So, what’s wrong?
For me, it comes back to Matthews. Berube’s system requires players to play with intensity and be physical. If the team captain doesn’t hit other players or take a hit to retrieve the puck in the corners, then what is the incentive for other players to do so? How many times have we seen once-in-a-lifetime performances from aging veterans such as Jason Spezza in 2020–21 or possibly John Tavares this season to show Matthews how to lead?
I do think Berube is utilizing Matthews incorrectly. However, I think the bigger issue is the unwillingness of key players to change their game. Unfortunately, the time to trade one of the superstars has long passed, and we are left wondering what could have been.
What do you think should change? Leave a comment down below!
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well! they can’t get the puck out of their own end & never get to dump ins at the other end before the opposition. They turn puck over constantly in neutral zone. So that is their game. If you never have the puck & are conatantly just chasing or trying to ice the puck to just get rid of the pressure then either your system is wrong(which is what I think)or the players are just plain up not good enough (also true). They have too many players no other team wanted, too many relaimation projects every year. Constantly looking for diamonds in the slag heap after discarding or trading prospects for leadpipes. They have spent the last 30+years trading away picks & prospects to create the illusion they were going for gold. I actually beive some of their GMS are working for the Bruins considering how many lobsided tradesthey make with Boston that have just been terrible. How many players are fulltime on other teams that were discarded or traded by leafs. How many bonifided stars have other teams gotten with maple leaf draft picks or prospects given away to get an aging player at trade deadline. It is constant smoke & mirrors game to create the illusion of a good team. Does anyone think the Carlo trade was a good idea now? A guy that used to hit & fight but now only pushes to get into the shower. Alex Steeves never good enough for Toronto so goes to LA in return for nothing. I heard his name last night. I heard Mintens name the game before. Remember Rask, mason Marchmand among many. How about Kadri. Carlo is missing in action along with Roy, Joshua & almost all the recent aquistions. getting water bugs & guys skating on stilts like Myers who are so tall they can’t see the puck or actually touch it. Most of their D are unplayable but they play anyways. Mcabe has fallen off the cliff & Reilly after ten plus years they are still looking for a partner to cover up his mistakes. This team will be trading Auston & he will be happy to go in a year or two. They will get a bunch of picks & prospects which they will subsequently ruin,trade away or squander that only Toronto is able to do. Toronto is the charlie Brown of hockey alway thinking they get fair treaatment from the league & teams while the rest of the league including refs just laugh behind their back. I guess for the owners its the same they laugh at the idiots that pay 2 months rent to watch the unwatchable.