The NHL world was given an interesting bit of speculation last week, that the salary cap might rise more than expected. Since the pandemic the cap has stagnated, leading to tough choices for teams close to the cap ceiling like the Leafs. Having already begun to rise once more, this season’s cap limit of $88M was already appreciated by the Leafs. Next season’s early, and conservative projections would see the cap increase to $92.5M. Other, more optimistic projections could be anywhere between $95M to $97M.
While this may initially seem like more room for the Leafs to operate with, the prices for players will increase accordingly. Often for fans, a player’s cap hit is the number to focus on, an AAV to latch onto for the duration of the deal from which value can be weighed. However, in negotiations agents and teams will instead look at the cap percentage. As the cap rises, so too will the dollar amount for a given role. Throughout a deal, presumably, as the cap keeps rising, it will take up a smaller cap percentage.
This preamble sets the stage for some key changes coming to the Leafs cap structure, most notably Mitch Marner’s potential new deal with the team. Long a source of criticism, the combined cap hit of the Leafs top forwards, dubbed the core four, has been a focus for fans and haters alike. Questions of whether or not the Leafs should keep the quartet together are one thing, but now we are gaining a clearer vision of what that might look like going forward.
The cost of the core
Funnily enough, the Leafs core four is currently at its most expensive. Taking up just over 53% of the cap, the quartet of Marner, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares is significant. Currently, GM Brad Treliving has found a way to fill out the team around them, giving the team its best blueline and goaltending of the cap era. Historically, the combined cost of the core four has been a hang-up for the doubters. A philosophical debate on whether or not a team can win with so much money tied up in so few players can succeed in the hard cap era. The previous high, when Marner signed his last deal, the core four combined for 49.7% of the cap.
| Player | 2019–20 Cap % | 2024-25 Cap % |
|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 14.8 | 15.06 |
| John Tavares | 13.5 | 12.5 |
| Mitch Marner | 13.38 | 12.39 |
| William Nylander | 8.54 | 13.07 |
| Total | 50.22 | 53.02 |
The good news for Leafs fans is that the core four will be less expensive regardless of how much Marner signs for. Tavares’ contract is up at the end of this season, and chances are that he will stay in Toronto for a fraction of his current cap hit. As Tavares is much older than the rest of the Leafs core four, this is an expected change. Tavares remains an important Leaf, and the team should see better value on his contract going forward.
A look at the percentages
Marner’s last deal came in at 13.37% of the cap, and it would be hard to argue that he should take less. Adjusted to the conservative $92.5M cap for next season, this same percentage would equate to a $12.37M cap hit. Nestled nicely between Matthews’ $13.25M and Nylander’s $11.5M, this would seem a fairly reasonable proposition for both sides. Nylander’s current cap percentage of 13.07% is right in this area, but regardless both would be paid quite fairly amongst the best wingers, and players, in the NHL.
Meanwhile, under a $96M cap ceiling, as the optimistic projections might point to, would see Marner’s 13.37% cap hit ring up at just over $12.8M. There is a chance that Marner feels he is owed a raise on this cap percentage given his continued excellence. Matthews is currently at 15.06%, a mark that Marner is unlikely to match. At our conservative $92.5M cap, that same cap percentage is $13.93M, which is less than what Leon Draisaitl’s next deal is.
The more interesting mark will be on how Marner’s cap hit compares to Matthews’ in terms of real dollars. a matching cap hit of $13.25M under a $92.5M cap would be just over 14.3%, in essence representing the maximum cap percentage the Leafs could give Marner while saving face. The goal of the Brendan Shanahan era has been to build a strong team with a culture that incentivizes players to take discounts to stay. While it is right and well that players try to get compensated as best possible, a symbolic compromise is powerful.
Once again Marner’s contract will be going up against some other elite players league-wide. Mikko Rantanen might have a case to make more than Marner outright, though earned much less last time around. The Leafs have and will not be shy to dole out trade protections and bonuses, and the sole ability to offer an eight-year deal may be useful.
The strategy
Cap percentage aside, it does make sense for Marner to find a spot in this neighbourhood. While some might feel he should make the same money as Nylander might take issue, others might feel Marner should make something closer to Matthews’ deal. Clearly, any deal under $12.5M would seem like a great deal for the Leafs. Though the future cannot be foretold, the cap continuing to rise throughout the deal will see the Leafs save percentage points as time rolls along.
For now, it seems that the Leafs have done well to build their most complete team despite the core four being at their most expensive. A big part of this is giving extra years to veterans like Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to keep their cap hits lower. In the short term, this has paid clear dividends, the Leafs in essence adding two top four defencemen. While these contracts might not age as nicely, the reality is that their cap hits can be dealt with in their own time, through LTIR or trade, or inevitably another happenstance in the flow of time.
At the very least this is a creative way towards manoeuvring the most expensive season of the Leafs core four. As always, this is a pivotal season of these player’s prime years. The best-case scenario would be that the Leafs get reinforcements from some recent draft picks, giving them discounts on some of their roster spots. The cap continuing its inflation will help as well, giving the Leafs a chance to target needs in the free agent or trade markets.
Long-term outlook
Already some of that forward depth is being tested. Though the Leafs have not had playoff success, former GM Kyle Dubas and former head of scouting Wes Clark left Treliving some nice pieces to work with. The development staff deserves credit as well, both pointing to some love for President Brendan Shanahan as well.
A lot can change, a lot will even, but starting this season with Nikita Grebenkin and Fraser Minten, as well as the continued emergence of Matthew Knies, some good drafting despite buying at the deadline each season is commendable. Easton Cowan is on the horizon for 2025 or 2026, and a year or two after that Ben Danford might be moving up the depth chart. Drafting, developing, and signing quality free agents are all pieces to the puzzle, and for now, Treliving has been able to supplement the team effectively.
What it all means
Of course, the reason the Leafs have a reason to be aggressive is because of their elite talent. Tavares, Marner, Nylander, and even Matthews are not perfect players, but their greatness should not be overlooked. Especially for the younger three players, keeping them through their primes should be an easy decision. There is a world where Marner decides to sign elsewhere regardless, a reality the Leafs will have the chance to recover from, but keeping him makes the Leafs a better team.
On the great stage of Leaf Nation, every big contract is bogged down with decades of disappointment, skepticism, and context-specific conjecture. Until it is signed, and every day after that, the Marner contract will face scrutiny. Marner’s camp might be interested in waiting until next season’s cap is solidified, just as they might even test free agency. While that amount of cap space can be an opportunity of its own, the truth is that Marner is a player worth investing in.
A high-level contributor in all phases of the game, the Leafs failures are in spite of their elite talent, not because of it. A significantly lower cap hit for Tavares next season will see the core four less costly. A rising cap and good organizational systems should give the team even more wiggle room. Whichever number Marner and the Leafs land at for his next deal, a cap hit between Nylander and Matthews’ deals would position the Leafs well to remain competitive.
