Fraser Minten looked good in a Toronto Maple Leafs uniform. His play matched his scouting reports; he’s undeniably smart, making the right play and staying underneath the puck, but also has the shot to put a few pucks in the net.
After scoring in his first game of the season, Minten added a goal and two assists in 10 games. He actually produced more than most of the guys in the bottom six.
So you’d think he’s a lock to stay up in the NHL, right?
Well, his underlying numbers were not good, which is kind of confusing if you watched the games. It didn’t seem like his lines were being caved in, but the numbers suggest they were.
Let’s examine what went right, and wrong, for Minten in the NHL this year.
A little offensive touch
Because Minten is so smart, he knows what to do in both zones. As he’s moved up the hockey ranks, this IQ has been linked to his defensive game more than anything, which is why he’s been projected as a 3C basically his whole career.
But at times in his short stint with the big club this year, Minten showed flashes of maybe a bit more offence than people saw coming.
Both of his goals came the same way. After getting lost by opposing defenders in the offensive zone, Minten ripped a shot from the slot, beating the goalie clean. His shot is a strength—he also ripped a nice shot off the post—and it looks like it’ll translate well in the NHL.
And he barely played with the Core Four, but Minten makes solid cross-seam passes to create scoring chances for his linemates. Whether they buried them is another issue. But his offensive game in general looks a lot more polished and exciting than scouts seemed to think.
Minten actually got a shot on PP1 when he first came up, which exposed how much he still has to grow. While he’s smart, he doesn’t have the offensive instincts to keep up with Mitch Marner or William Nylander. He whiffed on a couple tap-ins, but overall the offence looked very promising.
The underlyings
While the eye test has looked solid, it’s no surprise Minten got the boot back to the Marlies. His expected stats were quite awful, so let’s dig in.
To start, Minten ran an expected goals percentage of 40.38. Toronto actually won Minten’s minutes 4–3, but the “under the hood” stats suggest that wouldn’t have lasted for long. But what caused such a terrible expected percentage?
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Leafs gave 15 high-danger chances per 60 minutes with Minten on the ice. That’s atrocious, and goes against everything Minten is “supposed” to be. His defensive game clearly didn’t actually work as well as it looked, as his lines left the middle of the ice open and did a terrible job of preventing cross-seam passes that led to scoring chances.
His 32.61 high-danger chance percentage is not good enough for the NHL, but part of the problem may be who Craig Berube deployed Minten with.
The four forwards Minten played the most with are, in order, Nicholas Robertson, Steven Lorentz, Max Domi, and Pontus Holmberg. It’s a very weird combination of players, two being offensive minds and two being absolute zeros in the offensive zone.
Putting Domi and Robertson beside Minten doesn’t make sense at all, as all of Minten’s defensive strengths will be useless with two irresponsible players beside him. Honestly, these guys shouldn’t be put together at all, there’s no way it will work.
Lorentz and Holmberg make a lot more sense, but their expected stats will always look pretty bad. Those three won’t be generating any offence, with their main goal being suppressing scoring chances.
The Leafs bottom six is an absolute mess, and Minten didn’t separate himself from the pack enough to warrant a permanent spot or linemates. But his deployment was weird, which surely didn’t help his underlying numbers.
What’s next?
Back in the AHL, Minten will get back to being the Marlies 1C and playing 20 minutes a night. This will give him a much better chance to develop than sending him to the wolves with the Leafs bottom six.
The goal should be for Minten to be the Leafs full-time 3C next season. He’s that close. Small things in his game, as well as becoming more comfortable with pro hockey physicality will help him reach his ceiling sooner rather than later.
I have no doubt Minten is going to be a very good NHLer, and I think the Leafs feel the same. The time just isn’t right now, and he has things to work on.
But either way, Minten’s short audition with the Leafs was a success, doing nothing but raising Leafs fans’ expectations of the young forward.
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