‘Tis the Season! Happy Holidays to you and yours from your friends at 6ix On Ice! With the holiday break in effect we thought we’d go through the team and decide whether each player should expect presents or coal in their stocking this year. We set a minimum of ten games played (with one exception) and are only looking at the 2024–25 season so far.
Nice:
It’s a contract year for Mitch Marner, something that has maybe landed Marner on some fans’ permanent naughty lists. Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to deny his production this year. Having played every game so far, he leads the team in points with 46. Marner ranks in the 97th percentile in net rating, according to Hockey Stat Cards and will be suiting up for Team Canada in the Four Nations Faceoff. Mitch Marner is definitely on the nice list.
Fresh off a new deal, Nylander is still producing at an elite level. His 40 points so far this year lands him second on the team, while leading in goals scored with 23. He’s third on the team in average Gamescore, while first in offence rating with +6.9. Here’s to seven more years being on the Leaf’s nice list, as he is this year.
The dropoff that Leafs fans were worried about in the twilight years of JT’s contract has so far failed to materialize. The club’s 25th captain ranks in the 97th percentile in Net Rating, and is third on the team in points with 34. Among skaters, JT boasts both the highest average Gamescore and the highest single-game performance on October 28th against the Jets. Easy addition to the nice list.
In his first season as the 26th captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Auston Matthews is struggling a bit. He missed nine games with an upper-body injury that he subsequently aggravated on Dec. 20 against the Sabres. Even though he’s missed 11 games, AM34 is still both fourth in points and average Gamescore. Despite being far from 100%, he’s still one of the best players in the world and easily makes the nice list.
Matthew Knies is playing like it’s a contract year, which it is. The 22-year-old is coming into his own, discovering his game in the big league. He’s found success as a forechecker, setting up his talented teammates, while producing at a 0.58 PPG rate. He ranks fifth on the team in points and is setting himself up nicely for his next deal. Consider Matthew Knies on the nice list.
Bobby McMann has been a minor victim of the injury bug this season. Despite this he’s still producing at nearly half a point per game. The 28 year old undrafted feel-good story seems to have found a permanent place in the league. Since returning on Dec. 14, he has six points in six games and comfortably makes the nice list.
Another injury-prone player, when he has been in the lineup it’s been quite positive. Patches seems like a chameleon, able to adapt his play to the style required by the team and coach. He’s brought much needed experience to the bottom-six which has started to produce recently. He’s also throwing some of the hardest hits we’ve seen from a Leaf in a while. Patches makes the nice list.
Minten has shown flashes of skill in sheltered NHL minutes so far this season. He definitely still needs development, a season or two more in the AHL would do him some good. However, he did manage to score his first goal in the NHL on Nov. 20 against the Vegas Golden Knights and so makes the nice list by default.
Forecheck. Backcheck. Paycheck. The new morale leader of the Leafs/Marlies is the exception to the games-played rule and lands on the nice list.
The evidence for McCabe’s importance to this Leafs team came when he missed five games and the team lost heavily in possession and expected goals. Teaming with Chris Tanev, the pair helps Toronto win some pretty tough minutes. Jake McCabe isn’t even in his first year of his new five year deal, so we are looking forward to him making even more nice lists.
Chris Tanev
A stalwart defensive defenceman, Chris Tanev has won some big minutes for the Leafs since signing his six-year $27M deal this offseason. Unfortunately, he seems to have also caught the Toronto injury bug, being sidelined for the Dec. 23 game against the Jets with a “lower-body” injury. A prolific shot-blocker, this is the first game he’s missed so far this year. With some luck, the holiday break will allow him to rest and recover and continue the play that has gotten him on the nice list.
With Tanev out, the Leafs are going to expect more from Timmins. Having already been scratched once this year, his spot in the lineup isn’t fully guaranteed but is more secure in the short term. He’s been alright on offence but his +2.7 defensive rating, good for the 93rd percentile, is what got him on the nice list this year.
I mean, do we even have to explain? Anthony Stolarz has been one of the best goalies in the league, tied in first in SV% (over 10 games played). One can claim that goaltending is the main factor in the team’s success this year and it’s hard to oppose. Stolarz will be out for a little while with a loose body in his knee so there are some questions but this is probably the easiest addition to the nice list.
The other half of our elite tandem, Joseph Woll is solidifying his permanent spot on an NHL roster. Over 15 games played, he has a .908 SV% and a 9–6 record. He’s now the Leafs starter with Stolarz out so he has a chance to further prove himself. However, his play to this point in the season clearly lands him on the nice list.
One of the Leafs’ goalies of the future, the truly gigantic Dennis Hildeby is coming off an elite season in the AHL. He’s regressed slightly but that hasn’t changed his position on the depth chart, being chosen over fellow prospect Artur Akhtyamov to be called up. In three games played for the big team, he’s got a respectable 2–1 record with an .875 SV%. With Stolarz out, Hildeby will have further opportunities to experience the best hockey in the world. Nice List.
Matt Murray’s redemption story truly warms the heart. After 628 days off of NHL ice, Murray returned against the Buffalo Sabres on Dec. 20. He stopped 24 of 27 shots in a 6–3 win. He’s back with the big team now and can prove that he’s still an NHL-level goalie. Matt Murray makes the nice list this year.
Naughty:
Max Domi has 11 points in 27 games, not good enough especially considering his 47 points last year. He does have three goals and two assists for five points in his last five games so might be picking up the pace. The Leafs badly need Domi to start producing and unfortunately he might find coal in his stocking this year.
Nicholas Robertson has had a disappointing year so far. After requesting a trade in the offseason and this being a contract year, one could have expected him to prove his worth to an NHL team. However, over 28 games played he only has eight points, an 18 point pace. We sometimes forget that he’s only 23, but when compared to the younger Matthew Knies, things look tougher. He’s on the naughty list, unfortunately.
David Kampf
David Kampf has been injured this season playing only 22 of 35 games. Despite this, his production is still below par. He’s got only four assists and zero goals for the Leafs, ranking fourth worst in average Gamescore. Kampf find himself on the naughty list.
The second worst average Gamescore on the team, Connor Dewar has one assist in 17 games for the Leafs. His spot in the lineup is certainly not guaranteed, and so far he’s not really playing his way onto the team. Naughty list.
Another disappointing bottom-six forward, Holmberg has six points in 30 games played. Given the number of injuries to the forwards this year, the Leafs need Pontus to produce at a higher level. He makes the naughty list.
Lorentz has skated in all 35 games so far this season, so points can be awarded simply because he hasn’t gotten injured. However, he only has five points so it’d be nice to see slightly higher production numbers over the next half of the season. So far, he’s on the naughty list.
Ryan Reaves has one point and zero fights for the Maple Leafs this season. He has the worst average Gamescore and is in the second percentile in offence. Why is he even in the lineup? Naughty List.
Morgan Rielly is struggling a little bit this year. His advanced numbers look fine, a negligible dropoff in Corsi For % and Fenwick For %. However, he dropped five points in GF% from 57.53% last year to 52.56% so far this season. His production has also stalled, only registering 18 points so far for a 42-point pace, off his 58 points last season. Just because we know he can do better, Rielly finds himself on the naughty list this year.
Rielly’s partner this year has almost the opposite problem. His GF% is nearly the same as last season but he has taken five point drops in both CF% and FF%. He’s also producing at a very slightly slower clip, notching 12 points so far for a 28 point pace where he netted 32 points last season. Similar to Rielly, we know what OEL is capable of and hope to see it soon.
Benoit has been bad this year. In 33 games played he has three points, has a -4.2 net rating, and a 34.61 expected goals percentage. He is second on the team in penalty minutes though. Very easy addition to the naughty list.
