Over the course of the Auston Matthews era, one of the main causes of playoff failure has been the drying of top-six production, without secondary scoring to back this up. Generally, less attention has been paid to the fourth line, as is common among most teams.
However, it is also true that it is nigh on impossible to make a truly deep playoff run if your fourth line loses its minutes. This season the Toronto Maple Leafs have run through many different combinations of their bottom-six, mostly due to injuries.
We here at 6ix On Ice believe that there’s absolutely a clearly winning fourth line that has emerged from Craig Berube’s blender.
The top three
We first saw the combination of Steven Lorentz, David Kampf, and Connor Dewar in the Leaf’s 5–2 victory over the Detroit Red Wings on Dec. 27. They handedly won their eight minutes and seven seconds of ice time, with Kampf netting the first goal, assisted by Lorentz. The fourth line in that game had a Corsi For percentage of 80%, and an expected goals for percentage of 95.27%, according to Natural Stat Trick.
They returned in a 5-2 loss to the Washington Capitals. This time they fared worse, allowing a goal against, with an expected goals for percentage of 25.54%.
Twice more we’ve seen them, in victories over the Boston Bruins on Jan. 4 and the Philadelphia Flyers on Jan. 5. Once again, they split the games, dominating against the Flyers, and getting beat by the Bruins.
Overall, this line has seen 32:15 of ice time and are clearly winning their minutes. They boast a Corsi For percentage of 57.69%, a Fenwick For percentage of 54.05%, and a goals for percentage of 66.67%. In expected goals for they are dominant, owning 64.36%.
While this is a small sample size for sure, the numbers are clear that this line combination is the best of the potential fourth lines. Barring injuries or trades, it’s clear the potential line is some combination of Pontus Holmberg, Ryan Reaves, Kampf, Lorentz, and Dewar. Of that group of players, there have been four combinations that have seen more than 20 minutes of ice time so far this season.
The other possibilities
It is important to note that the fourth line is not expected to generate significant points. Rather, an ideal fourth line generally wins its minutes, meaning it spends more time on offence than defence.
Holmberg, Kampf, and Lorentz have been together for 22:16 of icetime this year. During those minutes they struggled, with a Corsi For percentage of only 36.59%. The last time we saw this line combination was on Dec. 20 in a 6–3 victory against the Sabres. The Leafs were generally outchanced in this game, with a Corsi For percentage of 45.24%. The fourth line however, was massively outplayed, generating only 13.33% Corsi For and 16.67% of scoring chances for.
Lorentz, Dewar, and Reaves have seen 47:40 of ice time together. During those minutes they have a surprising 61.92% expected goals for percentage. Diving deeper into the numbers however, this represents an expected goals for of 2.04 and an expected goals against of 1.26. More importantly, they only have a Corsi For percentage of 44.59% and a scoring chances for percentage of 41.18%.
The fourth line with the most ice time this season is the combination of Lorentz, Kampf, and Reaves with 83:09. Once again, this line combination generally loses its minutes. They have a Corsi For percentage of 48.18%, and a measly 38.46% scoring chances for.
The perfect combination
Looking more specifically at the only fourth line that has consistently won its minutes, it’s additionally clear that these three players together is the correct combination. When missing Lorentz the Corsi For percentage drops from 57.69% to only 31.11%. When missing Dewar, it’s 44.96%, and when missing Kampf it’s 49.42%. Additionally, the only positive scoring chances for come when this line is together.
The counter argument to include Reaves has been his physicality. Anyone who has watched him play over the past couple seasons has seen that the game is probably too fast for him now. While he is third on the team in hits with 86, he is behind both Simon Benoit and, more importantly, Steven Lorentz. The 6’4”, 205lb forward who signed in the offseason leads the team with 111 hits, while also completely overshadowing Reaves in on-ice performance.
The Leafs have been accused of being too top-heavy for almost the entirety of the Matthews era. There is now a line combination that not only goes even with its opponents, but generally wins those minutes. Finding this combination halfway through the season bodes well, as it’s one less area of concern and no resources need to be spent at the deadline to plug holes. Here’s hoping we see more of Lorentz, Kampf, and Dewar together, giving them time to build even more chemistry.
