Although the halfway point of the season has come and gone, the league arrives at a hiatus during the 4 Nations Face-off. While fans will be caught up in the games, the front offices around the league will be locked into the eye of the storm.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have seven games before the trade deadline, as all the league’s teams will be forced to position themselves for the future. What decisions are the Leafs grappling with? How aggressive should the team be on the trade market? A closer look will reveal some insights into what the team will be weighing.
Is the change enough?
Regardless of all that came before it, the Auston Matthews era has grown stale for many. Leafs Nation is not monolithic, and there is always blame to go around, but the appetite for change will always exist. Granted, the successes have been muted, which does no favour to anyone’s case. Until proven otherwise, the rhetorical question looms ever larger. Are the Leafs different this year? Is that different enough?
Categorically there are changes, a pedantic truth. Upon the eye of the beholder, the team’s values and identity might have shifted with time for GM Brad Treliving and coach Craig Berube to make their marks. Unfortunately, it seems the Leafs have a similar problem as always: a general lack of depth. The areas where help could be needed are limited, as are the players available that fit the criteria.
Given that Mitch Marner and John Tavares are scheduled to hit free agency, do the Leafs see this as a potential last hurrah? Some serious offseason recalibration is inevitable and required, yet the pressure might be increased within the uncertainty. Save for a few moments, including a draft table that Treliving was restricted, the Leafs have been locked into playing this out.
Treliving’s history and expectations
At the very least Leafs management has embraced the journey. Their moves under Treliving have been to get older, more defensive, bigger, and more direct. It is clear that Treliving is invested in the here and now. Some stylistic preferences are clear. How much of the future can be loaned? How much should be?
One might argue that a lack of draft capital has sapped much of the highest upside organizational depth. Without capable young players pushing up the lineup on cheaper contracts the path to depth becomes steeper, anxiously counting cap dollars against production on a day-to-day basis. Every trade and signing needs to be a win. Or rather, enough of them.
Matthews Knies is a clear example of this. Though it takes time for prospects to develop, and most of them never do, the upside of investing in the future is still vital. The Leafs have done well to be creative, as undrafted NHLers Mason Marchment, Bobby McMann, and Justin Brazeau. They have drafted well with later picks, as Fraser Minten joins Knies and Nicholas Robertson as second round picks that have been in the lineup this season, not to mention Sean Durzi before them.
Still, it has not been quite enough to propel the team forward. Perhaps there is a need for the Leafs to be more conscientious going forward. Already without a first round pick this season, doubling down by trading away top prospects Minten or Easton Cowan, or next year’s first rounder seems risky. Doing so for anything less than a core piece of the team going forward seems incredibly short-sighted. Between the looming UFAs, the rising cap, and the lack of capital, the pressure could lead to bold decisions.
Berube’s philosophy
Berube seems to be on the same page as Treliving stylistically. Regardless of if it’s the right decision for the team, it is best to have some alignment from the top down. The vision of a bigger, more forceful, more direct, and more mature team is clear, and it is still likely to be central to whatever moves the Leafs make to upgrade.
In his media availability after a loss to begin the 4 Nations break, Berube was his usual self when asked where he expects his team to improve as they round into form. The coach emphasized the team’s play without the puck, as well as improving the penalty kill, as the main areas of focus.
Some might see bigger issues with the team. A lack of depth scoring is evident, and not necessarily a constructive topic for Berube to comment on. The coach might be brief with his words, but he is direct and candid. In a sense, it mirrors how he wants his teams to operate, functional and intentional. Often after low-scoring losses Berube is more positive than one might expect, focused more on defensive execution than lack of offence.
Berube should be taken at his word. Offence can be volatile, but defensive effort and attention to detail, and most of all will, need to be non-negotiable to achieve victory. The offence is not beyond reproach, as he has asked for more from his power play at times earlier in the season. It would seem Berube is focused on maximizing consistent sources of offence, the power play and the net front.
Perhaps there is less emphasis on creativity and possession than under former coach Sheldon Keefe, but this seems to be a sacrifice that Berube is content to make. Especially with some offensive options that have not quite produced up to expectations in Robertson and Max Domi, the answer the coach is seeking is likely a big, strong, and simple defensive player. Where and how these potential trade targets produce offence is likely more important than how much they produce.
Some deadline options
With Brock Nelson seemingly off the market, there is no clear high-end rental option at centre. Rumours surrounding Dylan Cozens are interesting, as the young centre could be a long-term core piece. Noah Dobson would be fantastic as a right-shot defenceman, though not necessarily the defensive presence the Leafs are targeting. Something of this scope and magnitude might warrant the highest trade return the Leafs can muster. Still, the cap constraints add another level of complexity.
Such trades are possible, but unlikely. Treliving is famously calling every GM who will listen, rather “is always in on everything”. It should be remembered that the nature of the Leafs amplifies this effect, it is only so meaningful to hear that the Leafs have interest in a player. It is, however, more likely that the Leafs will be linked to whoever they do end up trading for prior to the deal.
There will be other options available, such as Scott Laughton or Connor Murphy. While not exactly as talented as Cozens and Dobson, Laughton and Murphy fit the Treliving/Berube profile much more. Perhaps others not yet linked to the team might make sense, as Jason Dickinson, Colton Sissons, or Nico Sturm might be comparable to Laughton at a smaller price. Carson Soucy is a left shot, unlike Murphy, but would still be an upgrade to the blueline.
Though these players do help the Leafs right now, how much of the future might it cost? Trading the 2025 second round pick, the 2026 first or second round picks, or one of Minten or Cowan would seem overly aggressive. Perhaps that will be the cost for some, but it is entirely possible that an equally impactful player can be found at a smaller price. Given that Minten and Cowan might be more impactful than these players as soon as next season, the thought of trading them for a forward of this ilk quite unappealing.
Perhaps then, the ideal would be to drop another price point. Treliving has had success taking chances on discount options, as McMann has shone. Simon Benoit and Philippe Myers have multi-year deals as free agents. There might be a chance to buy low on a less-heralded player.
The best way forward
The Leafs should not feel that their future assets are untouchable, but there will be shades of grey on who might be worth such an investment. Is adding a high-end rental, say Brad Marchand, worth it? Is a prime-aged right-shot defensive defenceman like Brandon Carlo? This will have to be a case-by-case basis, and the jury will be out regardless.
There is some wisdom in a more conservative deadline. To some extent, there will be a natural end to the cap bottleneck the Leafs have found themselves in. The rising cap and new contracts for Marner and Tavares will reshape the makeup of the team one way or another. There will be interesting opportunities therein.
For now, an upgrade would help. A miraculous return to top form Calle Jarnkrok would certainly help, but seems ambitiously optimistic. Absent a big move, the Leafs might be better off betting on their scouts with discount additions than forking over premium assets for a slightly bigger name.
