One of the biggest distractions this year for the Toronto Maple Leafs is the Mitch Marner contract situation. Fans and analysts have been debating what his next contract should look like, and whether it will be long-term vs short-term in the range of $12M-$14M. Some fans feel that his current deal, the six-year, $10.9M AAV contract signed in September 2019 is his current value.
The other talking point is whether Marner should remain a Maple Leaf. After eight consecutive playoff blunders, should Maple Leafs’ management finally shake up the core? Regardless, Marner is currently playing in a contract year, and is making the case that he should be paid handsomely.
Let’s take a look at Marner’s performance as a Maple Leaf, his performance at the recent 4 Nations Face-Off tournament, and what options the Maple Leafs have when it comes to Marner’s next contract.
Marner is a point machine
Mitch Marner is fourth in franchise assists and sixth in franchise points, and he’s only 27 years old. Let that sink in. Having only played 632 games, Marner has 210 goals and 500 assists for 710 points. He is a mere 120 assists away from the franchise assist leader Borje Salming, and 277 points from the franchise point leader and Maple Leafs’ legend, Mats Sundin.
Marner has had three 90+ point seasons, notably scoring 99 points in the 2022–23 season. So far this season, Marner has 16 goals and 55 assists for 71 points in 56 games. At his current pace, he is on track for a career-high of 79 assists and 102 points. At all strengths, Marner ranks third in the league in assists, and third in the league in primary assists.
An area that often gets overlooked is Marner’s ability to play defence. At all strengths this season, Marner ranks 27 in giveaways with 76, and fourth in takeaways with 41. Furthermore, Marner has been a fixture on the first penalty kill unit for several years, often creating shorthanded chances. On the penalty kill, he’s fourth in scoring chances for, third in high-danger scoring chances for, and third in takeaways.
Of course, as a Leafs fan, this possible career year would have to be a contract year for Marner.
Marner’s playoff performances
The one sticking point for Marner is that he does not produce in the playoffs. In the playoff series against the Boston Bruins last season, Marner had one goal and two assists for three points in seven games. In the 2022–23 season playoffs, Marner had 14 points in 11 games over the two rounds for what was probably his best playoff performance.
At face value, this seems like a decent performance. However, Marner only scored one goal and two assists in five games against the Florida Panthers in the second round. In the previous six-game series against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Marner scored two goals and nine assists for 11 points.
You can see the point of contention between the Maple Leafs fans. Marner produces during the regular season, and I don’t think anyone is disputing this. However, Marner, as with the other stars, has fallen short in the playoffs. With the star power the Maple Leafs possess, there should have been at least one deep playoff run by now.
To Marner’s defence, the whole team did not look good against the Panthers in the 2022–23 playoffs. Collectively, the Maple Leafs superstars have not pushed the team through a deep playoff run, so it’s unfair to pin all the playoff failures on Marner.
Marner’s performance at the 4 Nations: Face-Off
Marner’s performance in the 4 Nations Face-off is encouraging to combat the “playoff dud” reputation. Marner scored the overtime winner in overtime against Sweden in the first game of the tournament. Looking back, had Marner not scored and Canada lost the game, Sweden would have made the finals.
Marner largely played on the third line in a shutdown role, where he excelled. That’s no surprise as Maple Leafs fans are used to seeing this type of game from Marner on the penalty kill or when defending leads. Marner also showed up in the championship game against the United States.
He assisted on Sam Bennett’s tying goal in the second period. Then in overtime, head coach Jon Cooper threw Marner with McDavid for some magic. Marner collected the puck from Cale Makar, passed through Maple Leafs’ teammate Auston Matthews to Canada teammate Connor McDavid and McDavid scored the golden goal.
Now, the 4 Nations Face-Off is not a Game 7 for the Toronto Maple Leafs. It is, however, showing Marner’s growth as a player. Time will tell whether Marner can elevate his game come playoffs.
Let’s leave any talks of a trade off the board for now with Marner having a full no-movement clause. As we approach the playoffs, there are several options GM Brad Treliving has with the Marner contract situation.
Signing Marner before the playoffs
William Nylander signed his franchise record eight-year $92M contract in January 2024, a few months before the playoffs. How did Nylander do after signing his contract? He did not break 100 points in the regular season, a feat he has yet to accomplish, and only tallied three assists in the last nine games of the regular season leading up to the playoffs. He scored three goals in the four games he played against the Bruins in the playoffs. The playoff performance was not bad, given he scored some clutch goals.
However, it is another example of locking up a player without the team collectively going on a deep playoff run. Other than the 2022–23 series, where the Maple Leafs got smacked by the Panthers in the second round, what has this core done to show they should remain together?
The pros of signing Marner before the playoffs is that in the event of a deep playoff run where Marner is leading the way, it could potentially bolster his value.
Signing Marner after the playoffs
As noted above, the Maple Leafs do run the risk of a strong playoff performance further inflating Marner’s value. However, this also could be an advantage for the Maple Leafs. If Marner does not show up, that would be nine years in a row, except arguably for one year, where Marner was largely a non-factor in the playoffs.
On one hand, this playoff record should hurt his value in contract negotiations and keep his AAV down. Why pay top dollar to a player who can’t perform when the chips are down? However, on the other hand, the near decade of abysmal playoff performances had little to no impact on both Nylander’s and Auston Matthews’ contract extensions. Matthews’ four-year $13.25M AAV contract has made him the highest-paid player in the NHL. So why would Marner accept anything less?
Let Marner walk in the offseason
This option is the source of much anxiety for Maple Leafs fans. And I get it. After decades of Maple Leafs’ teams that have not had the star power the current team possesses, it’s scary to lose one. For some, the idea of letting Marner walk this offseason without obtaining any assets back is the worst choice imaginable. The Maple Leafs would be better off doubling down on Marner and signing him.
The opposing view is that Marner has not shown to be a true leader of the franchise in the playoffs. So why give him franchise player money? The 4 Nations tournament inspires some confidence that Marner can produce in high-pressure games, but he has yet to dominate an entire playoff series for the Maple Leafs. In addition, the Maple Leafs are the only team that has spent more than 50% of their salary cap on four forwards. Perhaps more money allocated to defence or a different top-six make-up would yield better results.
But the salary cap is increasing, right?
The salary cap is indeed going to increase, substantially over the next few seasons. The salary cap is expected to increase to $99.5M next season, giving the Maple Leafs an extra $7.5M of cap space. If we remove the salary increases to Joseph Woll and Jake McCabe that start next year, this shrinks to $2.1M if everything remains the same as it did this year. Herein lies another problem.
John Tavares needs a new contract this offseason, or the Maple Leafs find a new second-line centre. The Maple Leafs probably want to re-sign Matthew Knies to a new contract this offseason. Then there is a bunch of middle-six wingers who need to be re-signed or replaced. Lastly, there is Mitch Marner’s impending contract.
What should the Maple Leafs do?
I don’t doubt that Brandon Pridham can make the math work cap-wise if the Maple Leafs extend Marner. When Marner signed his current deal, he signed for 13.37% of the Maple Leafs’ cap. Next season, if he were to sign for the same cap percentage, this works out to $12.77M. If he signs for 14.5% of the Maple Leafs salary cap, that works out to $13.85M. This is probably close to his upper max.
Personally, if these are the numbers at play, and given the other contracts of the Maple Leafs’ superstars, I think whether Toronto signs him now or after a hypothetical deep playoff run will have little impact on his contract demands. I would feel more comfortable signing Marner after a deep playoff run in which he was a dominant force because this would show that Marner has improved his playoff-bust reputation.
I also see the merits of using Marner’s money elsewhere to try something different. This assumes the Maple Leafs spend this cap space appropriately. For me, it’s dependent upon how Marner and the Maple Leafs perform come April. If it’s more of the same, then I think after nine years you are forced to make changes. If Marner and the Maple Leafs finally go on a deep run, and the core has finally turned the page, then I think resigning Marner makes sense.
Regardless, Marner is going to get paid either by the Maple Leafs or one of the other 31 teams. If the Maple Leafs do not go on a deep playoff run, do the Maple Leafs run it back for a 10th year? Should the Maple Leafs resign him regardless?
Let us know your thoughts below!
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