The Leafs were busy on trade deadline day, adding two of their biggest needs to the roster. The arms race atop the Atlantic Division was fierce, as the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers loaded up. The Leafs, meanwhile, added Scott Laughton at centre and Brandon Carlo on defence. Let’s take a closer look at what Carlo brings to the ice and how he might fit into the Leafs lineup.
What to expect from Carlo
The Leafs have coveted right-shot defensive defencemen throughout the Auston Matthews era. Leafs GM Brad Treliving added Chris Tanev this summer, and his impact has been very noticeable. Now, Carlo joins as another right shot defensive specialist. While not the same player as Tanev, in a broad sense, Carlo fulfills a similar role.
At 6’5″ Carlo is taller than Tanev, but also does not have the same passing skills that Tanev does. While Tanev is not an offensive dynamo, his passing ability is uncanny among players of this archetype. Carlo, on the other hand, will require a defence partner who can carry a heavy load in moving the puck. Carlo is the youngest of the Leafs top defencemen, a 27-year-old signed for two seasons after this. The Leafs were able to get 15% of his salary retained, bringing his cap hit to $3.5M over that time.
Carlo is used to playing against top competition and logging a key role on the penalty kill. He is effective in his own zone, but is also adept at denying opponents in transition. Like Tanev, Carlo is not necessarily a punishing defenceman. A willing combatant, Carlo blocks shots, ties up opponents, and blocks passes more than he looks to line up big hits. While not a perfect player, Carlo is one of the better defensive right shot options in the league, and has remained stout despite the Boston Bruins struggles this season.
There is a bit of an injury history, as Carlo has suffered some long-term injuries over his career. Two concussions lingered, one in March of 2021 that kept him out for a month, preceded by one in March of 2020 that ended his season. Altogether, Carlo has suffered six concussions in his career, which is a touch worrying. There does not appear to be many adverse effects since then, as his concussion-related absences have not increased in length or frequency.
How does he fit?
Joining what was already the best Leafs blueline in over a decade, and perhaps even of the salary cap era, Carlo is a clear upgrade to the unit. Past Leafs teams are hardly a high bar to measure against, but this has become a good blueline in its own right. Without a legitimate Norris Trophy candidate, the Leafs blueline will not be considered among the best of the league.
Instead, the Leafs depth has become their strength here. Joining Tanev, Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Carlo gives the Leafs a fifth defenceman who can handle top-four minutes. More specifically, as a defensive right shot, Carlo balances the group in terms of handedness and disposition. The penalty kill is the most obvious area this can be seen, where the Leafs have tried Conor Timmins, Philippe Myers, and even Ekman-Larsson on his weak side behind Tanev. Carlo solidifies this position, keeping the Leafs from a question mark at a vital game state.
To an extent, Carlo does injury-proof the group. In the heat of a divisional race, where two of the league’s top contenders threaten a nightmarish first-round opponent, this carries some weight. Tanev is the least replaceable defender on the roster, and is currently out of the lineup. While keeping the team afloat through the regular season is nice, ideally Carlo helps the Leafs become even more sound at full strength. It seems like no coincidence that the Leafs first blown third period lead of the season came with Tanev out of the lineup.
For now, a partnership alongside Rielly seems like a tailor-made fit. In the short term we might see the Leafs experiment with using Carlo as a direct stand-in for Tanev, in a shutdown role with McCabe. Although playing with Ekman-Larsson is a fine option, the Swede is most likely to be pushed down the lineup outright.
Bigger picture
With two seasons left on his deal after this, the Leafs have plugged one of the biggest holes on their roster for the foreseeable future. Essentially, the Leafs new top five defencemen will be a force for as long as the group can maintain health and effectiveness. The group is older, and some decline is on the horizon, but the narrative around the lineup is altered.
While the Leafs have not found playoff success, save for a single series win, the top players have shouldered much of the criticism. Less discussed is the team continually falling short of properly supporting them. In his time as GM, Treliving has built a blueline and a goaltending situation that gives their star forwards a fighting chance.
It is true that the Leafs top forwards still need to win them playoff games, and that their offence has failed them as much as anything else in playoffs past. Even so, the Leafs have continued to address issues up front. Their offence often generated sufficient possession for scoring, but lacked the ability to finish. More focus on direct plays in contested ice, read size and snarl, should be a boost here.
Carlo does not help directly in this manner, but the flow-state of hockey means that defence leads to offence. A more sound defensive team will be able to generate offence indirectly. Players like Ekman-Larsson will be slotted into more offensive roles. The team as a whole will be able to play more freely, trusting in themselves and their teammates to stick to their systems instead of predetermining one way or another.
Best defensive unit this team has had in the past 10 years. Now they need to quickly gel.