The Ottawa Senators are ready to take their next step by becoming a playoff team. It has been a longer process than many had hoped, but they are full value for breaking out of the glut of rebuilding teams in the Atlantic Division.
The Sens are currently in a Wild Card spot, but are gaining ground to a divisional playoff spot outright. The Leafs might earn the chance to play the Sens in the first round by winning the division, but the Sens might just be able to catch the Tampa Bay Lightning, setting up the same matchup should the Leafs fail to win the division.
Let’s take a closer look at what the Sens are as a team, and what a playoff series against the Leafs might look like.
Forwards
Tkachuk—Stutzle—Giroux
Perron—Cozens—Batherson
Grieg—Pinto—Amadio
Highmore—Gaudette—Zetterlund
Extras: Cousins
Over the past year and a half the Sens have greatly improved their forward group around their stars. Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle represent the elite talent and the core of this era of Sens hockey. Their status as elite players is hardly in doubt, though their playoff legacies are yet to begin. How they are able to elevate their games will play a huge factor in whether the Sens are able to win some playoff games. Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson are nice complements as top-six forwards, while veterans David Perron and Michael Amadio are capable of filling in the middle-six.
The real improvements come from some of the young sandpaper in this lineup. Ridly Greig and Shane Pinto have steadily grown into core pieces for this team, intense and physical players still coming into their own. Recent additions in the same age group improve the forward corps both now and in the future, making the Sens even more dangerous. Dylan Cozens appears to be fulfilling the prophetic boom of success after leaving the Buffalo Sabres, capable of becoming a top-line centre in his own right. Fabian Zetterlund is starting a bit lower in the lineup, but should become a staple in the middle-six.
The quartet of Cozens, Pinto, Greig, and Zetterlund give the Sens a great deal of depth, skill, and intensity. This catapults the group into one of the more formidable top-nine forward groups league-wide. The Sens have gotten younger, deeper, tougher, and more skilled without spending a ton of their futures. For a long while, the health and availability of their top three centres was an issue, the team too thin to handle the burden. Moving off the beloved but oft-injured Josh Norris was difficult, but Cozens provides a higher upside as well as less injury risk.
Defence
Sanderson—Zub
Chabot—Jensen
Kleven—Matinpalo
Extras: Hamonic, Gilbert
Although the Sens moved off of a very talented defenceman in Jakob Chychrun this past offseason, the group has become more functional. While few would suggest that Nick Jensen is a better player than Chychrun outright, it is clear that he is a much better fit for this team. The Sens needed a right shot who could handle big minutes at even strength and on the penalty kill, and Jensen brings exactly that. Along with Artem Zub, Jensen also brings a level of two-way play, giving the Sens a pair of versatile right-handed options.
Naturally, the blueline is led by a pair of star left shots in Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot. As Sanderson is still coming into his own, he has already taken the mantle as the Sens top option here. Chabot is still an effective offensive option, and has produced better results with his lighter workload as Sanderson has emerged.
The rest of the group is rounded out by defensive options, including veteran Travis Hamonic. Tyler Kleven is coming into his own in his first full NHL season, while Nikolas Matinpalo is an older rookie. Both are willing physical combatants, helping to drive home the defensive transformation the team has undergone this season. In the end, the Sens still rely heavily on their top-four, but this pairing is starting to push for more minutes.
Goaltending
The starring addition of the offseason was starting goalie Linus Ullmark. The former Vezina Trophy winner, now signed long term, put an end to a long-standing carousel in the Sens crease. Over the past several years, the Sens spent a good deal of assets chasing goalies to and fro, only to see those traded away post bounce back seasons after leaving the team. While Ullmark is considerably more accomplished than their past goalies, the real issue was clearly with their lacklustre team defence.
Ullmark has brought enough stability to pay off their improved play, as did Leevi Meralainen while Ullmark was out with injury. While his style can be a bit erratic and sensationalized, Ullmark is able to steal games. If the Sens can lock in defensively, Ullmark will become all the more imposing in a playoff series.
vs leafs
The Sens beat the Leafs twice this preseason, and followed it up by winning all three of the teams matchups in the regular season. The Sens only gave up four goals in those three games, utterly dominating the Leafs at every opportunity.
The most generous appraisal of the Sens roster advantages would argue that they have the edge over the Leafs in some key areas. Jake Sanderson has the highest ceiling of the defencemen in the series. Ullmark is the most decorated goalie as well. The Sens are at least as physical as the Leafs, though the aura of Brady Tkachuk might be the main difference here.
For the Leafs, the biggest factor should be their experience. It would be incredibly demoralizing for the less-proven Sens to outduel the Leafs, who have taken so long to gain traction on divisional rivals that came before. Always a hot topic of conversation, if Stutzle or Tkachuk are able to lead the series in scoring, it will sting as well.
A playoff series would signal the renewal of hostilities in the Battle of Ontario, where most of the Leafs playoff success of the 21st century has come. With the looming UFA statuses of Mitch Marner and John Tavares, the Leafs playoff performance might be the final nail in the coffin of the “core four” era of Leafs hockey. Having the Senators as an opponent would be even more tense, a sign that time has left the Leafs behind, hanging in the balance.
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