Despite the price tag, the feeling was Scott Laughton would make a good fit for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The need for a third-line centre was clear; the team’s preference for forwards who can score from in tight had been paying off. Somehow, things have not yet worked out for Laughton, as he has slid around the lineup.
Pessimistic minds might have already written off the Laughton trade as a miss, but there will be lots of time, even beyond this season, for Laughton to find a place in this lineup. The questions for right now are more immediate. Where does Laughton fit best? What are the Leafs trying to accomplish with their lineup? How can the two be balanced for the good of the team?
Givens
Laughton’s career highs of 18 goals and 43 points came in the 2022–23 season. His usual rates are a tad lower than that, meaning that 15 goals and half a point per game should not be the expectation. This should disqualify Laughton from usage alongside the Leafs top forwards.
Laughton simply does not possess the offensive upside to warrant a long-term home in the top-six. While centring Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies would certainly help Laughton, it would not seem to be on the table for the Leafs. Perhaps a fit alongside John Tavares and William Nylander would be slightly more acceptable, though the Leafs have better options to fill that spot.
The Leafs have shown very little appetite to separate their approach to the top-six for a deeper look in the top-nine. Some suggest that Marner, Nylander, and Auston Matthews should each have their own line, the team too stubborn to try. Laughton does not seem to have enough upside to inspire the Leafs to explore the concept any more than before.
At the very least, Laughton does seem to be an upgrade on David Kampf, presuming his early slump with the Leafs dissipates at some point. His contract is more favourable, and the current regime seems to value his more assertive disposition on the ice. That said, his role could end up being closer to what Kampf’s has been throughout his Leafs tenure. This leaves two lineup possibilities of how Laughton and the rest of the Leafs bottom-six could go.
Promised
The ideal outcome at the time of the trade was for Laughton to take hold of the third centre role outright. Currently, Max Domi seems to be the fixture of this unit. For a time, it was Nick Robertson and Bobby McMann flanking Domi, though McMann has kept playing his way up the lineup. Domi and Robertson have a natural playmaker and sniper dynamic, as well as more attitude than their size and skill would suggest.
Laughton does bring some more snarl to the unit, and is the most effective net front presence of the three. He might not bring enough to the transition game that Domi and Robertson play, and likely cannot help the trio become defensively sound enough to trust in checking roles.
Perhaps swapping Robertson off of this line is the answer, where Calle Jarnkrok might fit the bill. Jarnkrok still needs to return to form after missing most of the season, but does have some shooting ability. Clearly outgunned by Robertson as a shooter, Jarnkrok is an upgrade defensively. Domi is counterintuitive to a checking line, but perhaps Laughton and Jarnkrok at their best straddle the line between being sound enough defensively to make the line trustworthy, and talented enough to pay off his playmaking.
Definition
The other way to approach a playoff lineup is to have four usable lines. This was the stated goal of coach Craig Berube at the start of the season, though how aggressively balance in the bottom-six is pursued is another question. Especially if the Leafs commit to a more offensive line with Domi and Robertson together, the best course of action might be to create a checking line that can push them for minutes. Though it may cost Domi and Robertson a higher quality linemate, it would give them more favourable usage.
Again, this will hinge on Laughton and Jarnkrok playing up to their career norms, but that should be achievable. Together, Laughton and Jarnkrok bring a strong blend of defensive qualities, speed, physicality, and intention. To complete a checking line with the two, the Leafs are left with Pontus Holmberg, Steven Lorentz, and David Kampf. With one of the three in this spot, another will end up with Domi and Robertson, the third likely in the press box.
While Kampf might have the most defensive utility in a vacuum, it is Holmberg who should be the choice. Not only has Holmberg outplayed Kampf this season, he is also a better fit for Laughton and Jarnkrok. Holmberg brings more speed to the line, but more importantly, is a better playmaker than Kampf or Lorentz.
While assists are one measurement, Holmberg has some functionality as a connector, which should help Laughton and Jarnkrok control possession and move the puck up ice. Holmberg unlocks some of the offensive upside for this duo, his skill set a bit more redundant on a Domi and Robertson line. At his best, Holmberg has the details to handle a checking role. A Holmberg-Laughton-Jarnkrok line might not be able to outplay opposing top lines outright, but they might have enough quality to neutralize them.
Filling out the lines
This would likely mean that Lorentz stands in on the Domi and Robertson line. While not the scorer McMann is, Lorentz has the size and speed to replicate some of his effectiveness in this spot. The smaller duo needs an aggressor on the forecheck, but Lorentz also brings a willingness to shoot and go to the net that should open up space for Domi and Robertson to capitalize.
The best-case scenario might involve a healthy Max Pacioretty, who would be a great fit instead of Lorentz. Obviously, Pacioretty would be the higher offensive upside, but is far from a guarantee to be healthy. The hope is that the Leafs are playing the long game, trying to keep Pacioretty as fresh as possible for the postseason. It is clear that Pacioretty will always be injured if a team needs him to be for cap reasons, and this might be the last stretch that he has the will to muster against his body.
Of course, other injuries will be a factor as well, one way or another. Still, for now, we can still reasonably dream of the best-case scenario. Without further ado, the Leafs ideal playoff forward lines, all capable in their own ways, all with a degree of patented Berube physicality and directness, all with their own identities:
Knies—Matthews—Marner
McMann—Tavares—Nylander
Pacioretty—Domi—Robertson
Holmberg—Laughton—Jarnkrok
