After what many described as a lacklustre effort on Tuesday night against the Florida Panthers, the Leafs were back to work against the Tampa Bay Lightning Wednesday night. With the Lightning and Leafs surging of late, this was a huge game for deciding the eventual Atlantic Division champion.
Naturally, it was a contentious matchup between the two rivals, each harbouring their own Stanley Cup aspirations. However, it was the brilliance of Matthew Knies that led the Leafs over the Lightning in this one. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest takeaways from the Leafs overtime win against the Lightning.
Brilliant night for Matthew Knies
The star of the show, Matthews Knies completed his hat trick to end the game in overtime. Knies has been fantastic against the Lightning, even more so in their building, over his career, but tonight was another level for the power winger. His line was responsible for the only other Leafs goal of the game, as Mitch Marner struck early in the contest to open the scoring.
Of course, the looming contract negotiations are on the back burner, lying in wait for the offseason, but this was a nice exclamation point for Knies. His strong season has seen him grab hold of a spot on the top line and a role on the top power play. Ending the game with his 29th of the season, Knies has come into his own.
Still, there might be more ahead for Knies. It is hard to believe that Knies scored only his fifth power play goal of the season. While the Leafs will be paying Knies more next season, he should be able to eclipse 30 goals with some regularity.
As coach Craig Berube noted, Knies tried to score a lacrosse style goal recently, and attempted a daring between the legs move moments before his eventual overtime winner. Knies is scratching the surface of his potential. Recently Chris Kreider and Zach Hyman have scored 50 goals in a season. Knies might be able to reach the mark over the course of his career, especially alongside linemates like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.
Should Anthony Stolarz be the game one starter?
While it has little to do with how he played tonight, Anthony Stolarz is looking more and more like the game one starter for the Leafs. Joseph Woll played well against the Panthers, but this game against the Lightning was the far more important game of the two. The Lightning have a fantastic home record and a middling away record, so maintaining home-ice advantage is crucial.
The Leafs have yet to clinch the division, but this win goes a long way toward doing so. The team should feel quite confident with either goalie in the net, and in all likelihood, both goalies would need to author strong performances on a long playoff run, but Stalorz does appear to have the inside track to the top job. Both goalies are signed beyond this season, and it is possible that Will can win the job at some point in the future.
Blocked shots the difference this game
The Leafs blocked a team record 33 shots in this game, a sign that the team has adopted a different mentality than in years past. Along with the stats that 12 different Leafs have fought this season, the willingness to sacrifice for the greater good is a sign that the Leafs have become much more conventional for a contending team.
Of course, a champion still needs oodles of skill to emerge victorious, but the Leafs have often lacked in these less exciting areas. Berube has at times lauded an effort after a loss, with fans wondering why the coach would do so after a night without generating much offence or winning the shot battle. A willingness to play a hard and direct style, to control physical battles, win at both net fronts and along the boards, as well as the personnel to do so is what defines the difference in this team this season.
As much as speed and skill are crucial, winning in these key areas is non-negotiable for aspiring contenders. The Leafs added three top-four-level defencemen this season, saw the emergence of some power forwards, and added some grit and positional flexibility with Scott Laughton. Between the goalies, the improved roster, and the simplified play style the Leafs might not be controlling the expected goals battle as often, but they are a far more sound team as a whole.
Was the five forward power play the solution all along?
A surprising fix to the Leafs power play was going with five forwards. While the confidence in the unit has wavered at times, the results have been impressive as of late. The team seemed to double down on the approach as John Tavares was forced to miss a shift after drawing a double minor for high sticking. The Leafs were forced to replace Tavares, but instead of defaulting to a more traditional look the team played Bobby McMann in the bumper, Tavares’ spot.
This shows a commitment to the concept, most of all using Matthews, Marner, and Nylander as the outside options. Knies is a beast around the net, clearly the Leafs best option. McMann is best served in the bumper, with some range to his shot and the ability to crash down towards the goal. While setting up in accordance with the strengths of one’s personnel seems obvious, it has taken guts for the Leafs coaches to stick with the idea despite being unconventional.
The Lightning will be a challenge in the playoffs
The Lightning were ruthless as ever this offseason, letting their long time captain walk in free agency. Perhaps the Lightning would have signed Stamkos to a certain salary threshold, but their willingness to stick to their principles over loyalty was bold. The Lightning made several other aggressive moves as well, including trading Mikhail Sergachev.
The team has done well to retool with the extra space. Adding Ryan McDonagh has been a great fit, as have other additions such as Jake Guentzel and J.J. Moser. Most recently, the Lightning reacquired Yanni Gourde in a deal that also gave them Oliver Bjorkstrand. The Lightning, as a result, are deeper than in seasons past, perhaps their best team since losing to the Colorado Avalanche in the 2021–22 Stanley Cup Final.
The Lightning have not won a playoff series since, and had been slowly fading out of their Stanley Cup window altogether. With bold strokes the team has bolstered their talent overall, and should be considered a legitimate threat going into these playoffs.
