Should Nicholas Robertson draw into the Leafs’ lineup for Game 5?

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers are now tied 2–2 after the Panthers’ 2–0 win on Sunday night. Effectively, it is now a best-of-three series, starting on Wednesday night in Toronto. The Maple Leafs were one shot away in Game 3, but were very much not into the game in Game 4. The Maple Leafs’ Sunday performance was probably worse than the 4–0 loss to the Ottawa Senators in Game 5 in the first round.

Given the poor team performance in Game 4, many think that Craig Berube should make lineup changes. The team clearly had trouble generating offence, especially from the Max Domi line. Nicholas Robertson has been a healthy scratch since Game 3 against the Senators. Should he draw into the line-up? Who should he replace?

What Robertson brings

The most obvious skillset that Robertson brings is his goal-scoring ability. Over the course of 69 regular season games, Robertson scored 15 goals and seven assists for 22 points this year. Generally, he’s been in and out of the lineup, and often played third-line minutes.

Besides Auston Matthews and William Nylander, Robertson is the only other player on the team with a shoot-first mentality. Matthews is clearly playing through an injury this year, and hasn’t shot the puck like we’re used to seeing, especially in the playoffs. Mathews has only scored two goals this postseason. Robertson could fill a need in that department.

Robertson has also worked on his defensive game this season. Among forwards during the regular season, he’s eighth on the team in hits with 79, and seventh in blocked shots with 33. Furthermore, he is tied for 10th in giveaways with Pontus Holmberg with 26 and tied with David Kampf for sixth in takeaways with 17. While not super elite, his defence has improved.

What Robertson lacks

There are a couple of criticisms against Robertson. While he has a phenomenal shot, he has not scored very much in the playoffs. Robertson has scored one goal and had one assist in 12 career playoff games. Last year against the Boston Bruins, Robertson did not register a single point. In the two games against the Senators this year, he recorded his one career playoff assist. This does not exactly scream offensive dynamo. 

The other criticism is his defensive game. While he has improved, the 23-year-old still has much development in this area. For much of the regular season, he was on a line with Bobby McMann and Max Domi. This line was productive offensively in stretches, but it was also hemmed in their own zone often. Too often for Berube-style hockey. 

The Maple Leafs are at a key junction in the series. It is starting to get late in the series, the Panthers have the momentum heading into Game 5, and in the tight playoff series the Maple Leafs are in, being hemmed in often can cost you games. Games that the Maple Leafs cannot afford to give up.

Who should he replace?

In the event Berube inserts Robertson into the lineup, who should he replace? The two obvious targets are Pontus Holmberg and Bobby McMann on the third line centred by Max Domi.

McMann missed the playoffs last year due to injury. It was thought that he would have been a difference maker in the current playoffs because he can score playoff-style goals. However, in the 10 games played, he has scored zero goals and has one assist. However, McMann’s biggest asset is that he knows how to play Berube-style hockey. McMann has 34 hits these playoffs, putting him second on the team.

Holmberg is an interesting case. Like McMann, he only has one assist in the playoffs. Clearly, teams are targeting him, often being on the receiving end of big hits. But Holmberg has a unique skill of being able to draw penalties. 

Holmberg led the team in penalties drawn with 28 in the regular season. So far in the playoffs, he’s tied for second on the team with four penalties drawn. Compared to all skaters in the playoffs, he is tied for 10th. He can also take face-offs, but is near the bottom in face-off win percentage on the team with 44.4%

What should Berube do?

Whether Berube makes any changes or not remains to be seen, as the Maple Leafs won both Games 1 and 2 at home against the Panthers. This is likely due to Berube getting his matchups because of the last change. Like in Games 1 and 2, Berube will likely match the Matthews line against the Barkov line in Game 5. This line has feasted on the Panthers’ top line so far in the series.

However, is Berube satisfied with the offensive production throughout his lineup? The Laughton and Domi lines have generated very little offence, whereas the Panthers have received offence up and down their lineup. If Berube is not satisfied with the offensive production by the third and fourth lines, is Robertson really the answer with his lack of production in the playoffs?

The setup that Berube seems to be rolling with is that the offence is on the top two lines, whereas the bottom two lines are shutdown lines. If this is the setup that Berube wants to go with, then Robertson’s skill set does not match well.

With Domi not being suspended for boarding Dmitry Kulikov, the pathway into the lineup for Robertson narrows. However, if Robertson does get into the lineup come Game 5, then he will have to make the most of it. Otherwise, he might not be with the Maple Leafs next year.