In some ways, a quieter offseason and an initial AHL demotion muted the expectations around Easton Cowan for this season. After a spectacular MVP season in the OHL in 2023–24, Cowan’s individual production and Team Canada’s performance at the U20 World Junior Championship removed some of the lustre from public discourse. Many expected he would start the season in the AHL, but Cowan has quickly proven his worth in the NHL.
Shoes to fill?
Cowan is a great prospect, but also a great fit alongside the top duo of Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies. Though many imagined that it would be Max Domi or Matias Maccelli who filled in Mitch Marner’s former spot, Cowan has proven at least as viable an option. The spectre of being Mitch Marner’s replacement not being thrust upon him for months was clearly a nice mental place for Cowan to spend the summer into his rookie season.
While it is unfair to hold Cowan to Marner’s standard, his hockey sense, puck skills, and competitiveness certainly hold some similarities. He’s been an eager forechecker and has the grit and skill to turn puck battles into scoring chances, distributing to his linemates.
How high Cowan’s stock is able to rise remains to be seen, but for now, his emergence changes the Leafs’ forward group as a whole. As new faces try to slide into key roles, and the Leafs try to figure out the lineup without Marner, tensions are high. Any losing streak could lead to questioning the forward group. After two losses to the emerging Detroit Red Wings, many of the new faces were squarely in the crosshairs of criticism.
Maccelli
The most obvious player affected by Cowan’s emergence is Matias Maccelli, who seemingly had the first shot at Marner’s old spot. Maccelli certainly has playmaking skills and has produced at a strong level during his career. That said, Maccelli has never had the profile of a high-end scorer. He’s done very well to have some strong seasons in his career.
Maccelli’s best seasons came as a member of a checking line with the Arizona Coyotes. Mostly with big power forwards like Nick Bjugstad and Lawson Crouse, Maccelli’s jitterbug playmaking was a perfect fit. The trio took on a lot of defensive usage, controlled play, and chipped in offensively. While impressive, this role is quite different than a spot on the Leafs’ top line.
Maccelli’s big question is whether or not he is a bona fide middle-six forward or a circumstantial top-nine forward. For now, a look at a line with John Tavares and William Nylander puts him in another role, where Maccelli might have to take on enough checking presence to survive.
Ultimately, the closest thing the Leafs can put together to replicate his Coyotes role would be a spot alongside Nic Roy and Dakota Joshua. For now, he has the chance to prove he is something more, but in reality, there is no guarantee he gets a raise on his next contract.
Trickle-down effect on the lineup
The second most clearly impacted player is Domi. To an extent, these skilled middle-six forwards become somewhat interchangeable between Cowan, Maccelli, and Domi. These jitterbug playmakers are necessary to help the bigger and heavier players in the lineup. They will be competing for ice time, and finding the right chemistry will be vital. Domi does have the distinction of positional flexibility, able to start at centre when needed.
Nick Robertson, although much less of a playmaker, might fit in the same category. None of the four is guaranteed to be a defensive contributor, and at this moment in time, all four might end up with similar production given equal opportunity. While it is certainly possible that Cowan has the most upside of the quartet, he has yet to earn this distinction in the NHL.
The Leafs do not need Cowan to be Marner, but if coach Craig Berube can mix and match at the right times, he might be part of the solution. It is entirely possible that Berube chooses to keep forward duos together and slightly alter the look by swapping the third player. At the very least, attrition will necessitate some change
It might be safe to say that, were Scott Laughton to return, Domi would be shifted back to the wing, and Robertson out of the lineup. Hypothetically, the lineup might look like this:
Knies–Matthews–Cowan
Maccelli–Tavares–Nylander
McMann–Laughton–Domi
Joshua–Roy–Jarnkrok
As mentioned, Maccelli might be a better fit with Joshua and Roy. Calle Jarnkrok looks much healthier this season, as he was often playing well in middle-six roles under Sheldon Keefe. His play on this line has paid off, which could easily last as a checking line for Berube.
The second line
It might be a big ask for anyone to truly fill the spot alongside John Tavares and William Nylander. A lot is expected of the duo, and despite several seasons of success, each dry spell stirs up frustrations in the fan base. Finding the right fit might be a key focus of the trade deadline, for example. While it is possible that Cowan, Maccelli, or Domi make stints at this spot, it might be other players who bring more balance to the line.
Tavares and Nylander both appreciate good playmakers, but both are skilled enough that other skills might be more useful. There might be a greater benefit from players who are efficient playmakers within limited touches. Some speed to forecheck, size and savvy for the net front, and ideally enough skill to elevate in the playoffs. The battle here might involve Bobby McMann, Dakota Joshua, and even Calle Jarnkrok. None of the three is a bona fide solution, nor are there centres that could fit in Laughton and Roy.
This underscores the opportunity for Maccelli. It is entirely possible the Leafs look to add a player for this role as the season progresses, or rather, that speculation surrounding it is inevitable.
Goodbye Mitch
The Leafs might not be the perfect team at the moment, but Cowan playing this well is huge for the future. Along with Fraser Minten, Cowan represented the Leafs’ top prospect last season. With Minten gone and limited draft capital, not to mention the possibility of an aggressive trade deadline, the Leafs will need to keep finding contributors from their prospect pool to stay relevant.
It is not easy to lose star players, and a team can only afford to outrun it for so long. In some areas, it affords space for growth and opportunity, but it also demands tighter margins on asset management. As the league watches to see how the Leafs fare without Marner, with pitchforks and told-ya-sos, this scrutiny will be plentiful. Anxieties for Leafs fans might be similar.
Cowan represents both the room for growth the lineup now provides and a huge development for one of the team’s key young players. Following in Knies’ footsteps and becoming a core piece is certainly a possibility. As the Leafs age, they will need to utilize every opportunity to reinforce and replenish their roster. On a bigger scope, it was encouraging to see strong training camps from others, Ben Danford, Jacob Quillan, and Luke Haymes, as well as positive trajectories for deeper cuts like Nathan Mayes or Sam McCue.
The truth is that Cowan hitting is a huge deal that improves the short and long-term health of the team. There will certainly be some ups and downs, but the forward group is in much better shape with his presence.
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