When Craig Berube was hired, the Toronto Maple Leafs set out to play a more playoff-style game. They wanted a more north-south attack, filled with forechecking and cycling in the offensive zone rather than generating off the rush. This was supposed to be the new forward strategy.
Toronto also wanted a more balanced lineup, something we’ve been talking about for years at this point. And to begin last season, we saw some experimenting. William Nylander would play centre, creating three separate scoring lines with Nylander, Auston Matthews, and John Tavares down the middle. But that lasted about four days, and we were back to the core four and everyone else.
This year, finally, Mitch Marner is gone. The Leafs added a ton of forward depth in the offseason, namely Matias Maccelli, Dakota Joshua, and Nic Roy. All are capable top-nine forwards, meaning Toronto should have the deepest forward group it’s had, right?
None of it makes sense
Well, six games in, it does not look like the Leafs have a deep forward corps whatsoever. The new guys are being put in random spots all over the lineup, while Nylander was moved up to Matthews’ wing against the Seattle Kraken. The gap between the top and the bottom of the lineup is back.
The deployment truly doesn’t make sense, and it feels like there is a disconnect between the GM and the coach.
What is going on with Nic Roy
Nic Roy, who has looked easily the best of the new three to me, was supposed to be the bona fide third-line centre, no questions asked. He’s a big, right-handed centre who’s scored between 13 and 15 goals a year for the last four seasons. He’s really good!
But for some reason, he’s played most of his minutes on the fourth line with Calle Jarnkrok, putting up a brutal 43% expected goals rate with him. Why is he playing on the fourth line, and why is he only getting 12 minutes of ice time a game? This guy was brought in to bring a new-look third line to life, and he’s been relegated to fourth line centre without Scott Laughton even being in the lineup yet.
The only success Roy has had has been with Steven Lorentz (who was scratched after signing an extension). Together, they share an xG% of above 60.
But honestly, Roy has passed the eye test. And with the team searching for answers, I don’t understand why Roy hasn’t been moved up the lineup at some point. He’s got some skill, and he should be capable of playing with Matthews or Tavares if you don’t believe he can be a 3C.
Dakota Joshua no-show
The biggest disappointment so far has been Dakota Joshua, who has looked invisible most nights.
Joshua has played with Roy, Jarnkrok, Max Domi, and Nick Robertson. They’ve moved him around to find a good spot, but nothing has really worked yet. Another big body, Joshua has not brought anything physically, nor has he put the puck in the net.
There’s not much to say about Joshua at this point, honestly. He hasn’t done anything particularly well, but he’s also been playing with guys he just shouldn’t be playing with in Domi and Robertson. Even Jarnkrok was supposed to be traded this offseason, but is now anchoring a line with the two new guys. Make it make sense.
What’s the goal?
Roy and Joshua were supposed to be two-thirds of the Leafs new shutdown third line. But they aren’t even playing against the opposition’s best. That’s still Auston Matthews’ job for some reason.
I thought we learned from the Florida Panthers and their dominant third line that depth matters, and that consistency matters. Joshua and Roy should be glued to the third line, and the goal should be to find them another winger, not find the right spots for them.
They should be playing against the opposition’s best line, giving space for the offensive-minded rest of the group to take advantage of lesser players. That’s what the whole point of this offseason was!
I don’t know what Craig Berube is seeing at this point, and it’s worrying. This is not the same team as last year. It should feel like we have four lines we can roll confidently. But it doesn’t at all, and it’s hard to figure out what the game plan is.
tonight’s lineup resembles almost exactly what I wrote in real time during the preseason. The only change I had was Scott Lawton as the 4C and Nick Robertson having been traded. I hope we can watch this lineup for a few games to see how they gel.