This has been a brutal start for the Toronto Maple Leafs, with the team looking dejected, disconnected, and outright disengaged on the ice. With an 8-8-1 record through 17 games, the Leafs sit seventh in the Atlantic Division and second-last in the Eastern Conference. Brutal.
The good news is that the jump from their current position to the second wildcard spot is just two points, with the Philadelphia Flyers sitting on 19 points. Three points would tie them with the Ottawa Senators for the third spot in the Atlantic Division, and five points would tie them with the Montreal Canadiens for the top spot in the Atlantic. It’s incredibly tight.
Here are what the Toronto Maple Leafs’ playoff odds look like today:
Moneypuck.com
Hockey website Moneypuck.com has very little faith in the Toronto Maple Leafs. Their analysis predicts the Leafs have a 19% chance of making the playoffs at all, second-lowest in the Eastern Conference.
If they do make it in, the odds of them getting through the first round drop to just 8.5%. We all know how the Leafs have fared getting through the first round of the playoffs of late. Assuming this is the year, they have less than a 1% chance of winning the Cup. Yikes!
The Athletic
Over at the Athletic, Dom Luszczyszyn gives the Leafs a much better chance at 38%. Still, less than 50%, he has them finishing with 88 points on the year, but they will be behind both Ottawa and Montreal and outside the playoff picture.
When pressed on why he has the Leafs where they are given their start, he notes that his model weighs past performances, and given how the team has done in the regular season the last few years, there is a chance that they improve as the season goes on. Still not great.
Hockey Reference
NHL stats site Hockey Reference has the Toronto Maple Leafs’ playoff odds between the two at 27%. This model predicts that the Atlantic Division will be a tight battle between basically everyone except the Buffalo Sabres, but that the Leafs will be on the outside looking in.
Interestingly, this model gives the Boston Bruins a good chance of making the playoffs, which questions the validity of this model.
What do the Toronto Maple Leafs’ playoff odds look like?
This team feels like last season’s New York Rangers- the talent is there up and down the lineup, but they are unable to put it all together. This team is frankly too talented to be this terrible. It feels like a team that has given up on its coach.
The team needs support from the top, and that comes from a coaching change. Craig Berube has lost his team and lost the room, and unless Brad Treliving makes a change, the season may be over before the clock turns on 2026.
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