The Toronto Maple Leafs have meandered through the first half of the season, often sitting closer to the bottom of the Atlantic Division than a playoff spot. There’s some salt in the wounds that the team is without each of their next first-round picks as well. After winning the division last season, free agency took Mitch Marner, deflating the star power of the team. Injuries to their top two right-handed defencemen, Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo, have depleted one of the thinnest positions on the roster. The goaltending has held up surprisingly well considering the general lacklustre state of the team’s defence.
While adversity is inherent to an NHL schedule, the Leafs biggest issue might be the play of Auston Matthews. At his best, Matthews has been a perennial favourite for the Hart, Selke, and Rocket Richard trophies. Over the past two seasons, he has not been able to do so, dropping down the list of the league’s best players. The potential disaster of missing the playoffs might cost both coach Craig Berube and GM Brad Treliving their jobs.
With the calendar switching over to 2026, and the Leafs firmly in the muddy middle of the league standings, there might only be one path to a stronger finish. A comeback win against the Winnipeg Jets offered a glimpse of how this might come to fruition. Without question, the Leafs will need Matthews to be at his best, but will it be enough?
Issues with Matthews’ usage
As much as mysterious and undisclosed injuries have been a part of Matthews’ recent struggles, some have begun to wonder about the incompatibility between Matthews and coach Berube. Over their time together, Matthews has been tasked with a lot of heavy defensive usage. Between the injuries and the loss of Marner, some production decrease might have been expected, but there has been growing concern of a disconnect between the coach and the captain.
Naturally, as the Leafs best defensive centre, Matthews will always be expected to handle some tough matchups. As Matthews’ early career scoring rates were often compared to those of Alexander Ovechkin, some have begun to reference Ovechkin’s depressed scoring under coach Dale Hunter. Perhaps there is something more than usage and deployment, but on the surface, that is the evidence at hand.
While health is obviously a big factor, Matthews’ teammates can be part of the solution. Rather, a combination of the roster and the trust they can earn from Berube. GM Treliving has clearly made it a priority to bolster the Leafs centre depth, and bigger roles for both Nic Roy and Scott Laughton can help take some defensive assignments off of Matthews’ plate.
Perhaps a game in late December without their captain gave the Leafs a taste of what Roy and Laughton are capable of. Roy is clearly the more trusted defensively, though neither has been trusted against top lines. Finding chemistry with linemates will be crucial to both centres’ ability to handle tougher matchups going forward.
Less puck on his stick
Aside from the depressed goal totals, a concerning trend has been the lack of control of play that Matthews has authored of late. Again, missing a play-driving, playmaking winger in Marner hurts, as does Berube’s style of defensive play. Still, the Leafs need Matthews to be dominant in this area to keep pace with the league’s elite teams.
The encouraging news is that Matthews has begun to generate more shots for himself in recent weeks, a sign that his dominant foe might still exist. Perhaps even more encouraging is that these results have come with lesser linemates. Matthews being able to dominate play with wingers like Bobby McMann and Max Domi allows the Leafs to spread their depth.
Stars like William Nylander and Matthew Knies become available lower in the lineup, which could give the Leafs two or three dangerous scoring lines. This would help the Leafs matchup game in its own right. The best version of Matthews can carry his own line, unlocking the best version of the rest of the Leafs lineup in the process.
A bit of reflection
Though the Leafs have underperformed to expectations, there is still a silver lining or two. The league standings are still very much up in the air, with most of the league condensed around the same point total. This means that the Leafs are not too far behind, but also that they will be jostling with a volume of teams in the second half of the season.
The other positive is that the Leafs find themselves in this position without Matthews being at his best. The same might be said for the power play. With both Matthews and the power play starting to heat up, there are already reasons to expect better results.
It may also slightly alter the trade deadline plans for the Leafs. Matthews returning to all-world form might be enough that the Leafs need not address their forward group. This is especially important given the Leafs lack of draft picks and prospects, and the status of Chris Tanev.
While Tanev’s toughness should not be doubted, it is hard to ignore the increasing frequency of his injuries. Troy Stecher has been a revelation filling in on right defence, and Brandon Carlo is supposedly nearing a return. Still, already with some questions about their blueline, missing Tanev is a huge blow. Unfortunately, there are not many right-shot defencemen as good as Tanev, and any that are available will be too expensive for the Leafs to acquire.
A hockey cliche is that the best players need to perform as the best players for a team to get anywhere. Matthews coming back into form as one of the best centres in the league fixes a lot of issues for the Leafs, and the slim margins of a league ruled by parity make it all the more vital.
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