Auston Matthews’ two-goal performance against the New York Islanders on Saturday night was a historic game for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Matthews is now the Leafs’ franchise leader in goals, surpassing Leafs’ legend Mats Sundin with 421 goals. However, this game will forever be marred by the fact that the Leafs lost 4–3 in overtime.
A large part of the defensive breakdown that led to the loss was the longest tenured Leaf, Morgan Rielly. Rielly finished the game with a -4 in the 4–3 overtime loss, and was responsible for several of the defensive blunders that game, notably the overtime winner against.
Is it time for the Leafs and Rielly to part ways? Let’s take a look.
Morgan Rielly’s career
Morgan Rielly was once touted as a possible steal of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. The Leafs selected Rielly with the 5th overall pick, and he finished his final year with the Moose Jaw Warriors and Toronto Marlies. In that season, Rielly finished with 12 goals and 42 assists for 54 points in 60 games with the Warriors. On the Marlies, he finished with one goal, two assists for three points in 14 games.
The following season, the rookie Rielly made the team as a 19-year-old. Looking at the roster in the 2013–14 season and the years that followed, Rielly was on some pretty bad Leafs’ teams. The whole Brian Burke era of Leafs hockey was not a good one.
Still, Rielly remained one of the few bright spots. Each season in his entry-level contract, Rielly improved on his point totals. While the team around him changed, Rielly remained because he was very good at moving the puck and could skate his way out of trouble.
Rielly’s best season was in the 2018–19 season, where Rielly scored 20 goals with 52 assists for 72 points. This was the third season in the Matthews era, and we thought that Rielly was finally going to reach his offensive potential. That season, Rielly finished 5th in Norris Trophy voting.
Rielly briefly returned to form in the 2021–22 season, scoring seven goals and 51 assists for 58 points in 82 games. But other than this regular season, Rielly has not had the consistent offensive output expected as a number-one defender. Despite the drop-off in regular season points, Rielly would often perform in the playoffs, clearly being the Leafs’ best defender.
Last season in 13 playoff games, Rielly scored four goals and three assists for seven points in 13 games. Not bad, comparatively to other Leafs, but also not world-beating.
The current season
This season, Rielly is on pace for one of his best offensive years. Through 40 games, Rielly has five goals and 21 assists for 26 points. Over 82 games, this works out to 10 goals and 43 assists for 53 points. This would be his 4th best season in his 13-year career with the Leafs.
However, defensively, this has been one of Rielly’s worst. Rielly is currently a -15, and is on pace to blow his career low of -20. The -20 was in the first year of the Matthews rebuild, and despite the team overperforming that season to make the playoffs, there was a reason why they finished last the season prior.
Plus/minus is not the best way to evaluate a player’s performance. Out of the 438 players with more than 400 minutes 5-on-5 this season, Rielly, among other Leafs, is at the top of goals against per 60 minutes.
Table 1. Table showing the top 10 players with goals against per 60 minutes of play for players who have played 400 minutes or more in 5-on-5 play.
| Player | Goals Against per 60 |
|---|---|
| Morgan Rielly | 3.96 |
| Ty Dellandrea | 3.86 |
| Brad Marchand | 3.86 |
| William Nylander | 3.82 |
| Drew Helleson | 3.81 |
| Max Domi | 3.77 |
| Andrew Mangiapane | 3.76 |
| John Tavares | 3.65 |
| Nick Jensen | 3.64 |
| Chris Kreider | 3.62 |
* Data adapted from Natural Stat Trick.
Besides the point that several Leafs made the top 10 of this list, Rielly has been the worst offender. It would be one thing if Rielly were continually in the top five of points for defencemen year after year. This year, Rielly is 21st, and for the defensive gaffs, this isn’t good enough.
He looks slower and struggles with the puck in his own end this year. The Leafs need to keep pucks out of their own net if they want to make the playoffs.
The Leafs and Rielly should part ways
When Rielly signed his current eight-year, $7.5M AVV contract in October 2021, there was a divide among pundits. Rielly finished with 35 points in 55 games in the season leading up to his extension. However, Rielly was the Leafs’ best defender at the time, and one of the only defenders who could move the puck.
However, we are halfway through his contract, and the Leafs need to make a decision. Matthews has been saving the Leafs’ season at this point. However, he cannot do it alone. While other forwards are having bounce-back seasons and are on pace for career seasons, the Leafs need their number one defender to act like a number one defender.
Rielly has not been a true number one defender in years. This is a similar situation to former Leafs’ defender Tomas Kaberle. However, Kaberle was willing to waive his no-trade clause to go to the Boston Bruins when it was clear there was no future for him on the team.
There have been trade rumours involving the Edmonton Oilers; however, ultimately, Rielly controls his destiny with his no-move clause. In the last two years of his deal, Rielly has a 10-team no-trade list. However, this doesn’t start until 2028–29, and I don’t think the Leafs can wait that long with the cup window closing.
General Manager Brad Treliving has to start general managing and improve upon Rielly. I understand that Rielly is the longest-tenured Leaf and a leader in the locker room, but business is business. It’s clear that Rielly and the Leafs are not working out, and it’s time for a change.
