The Toronto Maple Leafs started their last road trip before the Olympic break with a 5–2 loss to the Seattle Kraken last night. The Leafs are now 10 points out of a playoff spot. As I wrote about after their failure of a road trip, which saw the Leafs boast a magical 0–4–1 record, the Leafs need to retool.
However, is Brad Treliving the general manager we trust with such a task? Let’s take a look.
Need to have commitment
The Leafs, as an organization, need to have a commitment to retool. As we discussed in our third episode of the 6ix On Ice Podcast, the Leafs have a prime opportunity to recoup assets for players who have an all-time peak value. Players such as Oliver Ekman–Larsson, Bobby McMann, and even newcomer Nicolas Roy could fetch a hefty return.
However, they need to commit to doing so, and it is uncertain if the culture around MLSE will allow it. It’s up to general manager Brad Treliving to convince MLSE that this is the necessary path forward. Right now, the Leafs are not winning games, nor are they a young, exciting, and upcoming team like the San Jose Sharks.
How Treliving needs to sell it to MLSE is that it’s not a full-blown “tear it down to the studs” rebuild; it’s bringing in new roster players who are faster, younger, and can help the team win next year. Furthermore, the Leafs would not be the first team to take a step back before (potentially) taking giant steps forward. Treliving has examples to sell MLSE on this idea.
Perhaps one of the best examples is the Florida Panthers. After winning just one round (sound familiar?) in 2021–22, the Panthers made a seismic change. They acquired Matthew Tkachuk from the Calgary Flames for Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, prospect Cole Schwindt, and a 2025 1st-round draft pick.
The Florida Panthers went on to three straight Stanley Cup appearances, including winning back–to–back Stanley Cups. You have to give up quality to get quality. Maybe that means moving a Matthew Knies for a true bona fide #1 defenceman that the Leafs have been missing forever.
Either way, doing nothing is not an option.
Brad Treliving’s past performance
Let’s revisit the Tkachuk trade. At the time, it was quite the haul for Calgary. Fans praised Brad Treliving for the assets he got for a player who wanted out of Calgary. However, if you ask Flames fans now, it will probably go down in history similar to the infamous Tuukka Rask for Andrew Raycroft trade the Leafs made in 2006.
In Treliving’s defence, did anyone predict that Huberdeau would fall off as much as he did? He was coming off a career high of 115 points, and played on bad Panthers teams for the majority of his career. I won’t dump on Treliving for the trade, but rather, I will criticize him for not adapting once it became apparent it wasn’t going to work out.
Overall, Treliving made good trades and bad trades during his tenure with the Calgary Flames, like any general manager. Treliving has shown a willingness to swing big, which is more than we can say for some general managers. But personally, assuming he actually commits to a retool, he has little room for error.
For transactions involving selling high on Oliver Ekman–Larsson or Bobby McMann-type players, I am less concerned. Either you get young roster players who are on the verge of breaking out or have shown to be able to play at a high level in the NHL. In other words, players who can play on your roster next year and fill one of the many holes.
Or, you get picks and prospects that are years away from having an impact, but you flip those assets to bring in roster players. Auston Matthews has two years left on his contract. William Nylander has six years left. These are the last prime years of these superstars, so it is imperative that if the Leafs go this route, they convert those futures into tangible roster players. The Leafs cannot afford to wait 4–5 years for prospects to develop.
Big risks, big rewards
However, when it comes to making bigger changes, that is where I have concerns with Treliving. If the Leafs were to trade a big piece like Knies, it absolutely has to hit. It cannot end up like the huge miss that the Tkachuk trade was in Calgary. Even if we make a trade that does not hit, the Leafs simply don’t have the time to pivot. There’s no guarantee that Matthews will re-sign, and even if he does, how healthy will he be?
We are nearing the close of the Matthews era. We are at a moment in history where this era can still be salvageable, and this team can still make a push for several deep playoff runs… starting next year. The Leafs need to commit to a retool, and it has to be executed properly.
Whether that means trusting Brad Treliving or bringing in someone who can get the job done, MLSE needs to act. Inaction is the worst possible course to take. Otherwise, the decades of bad teams will continue to impact their bottom line. And we all know MLSE likes profits.
Good defensemen can often play until 38 and make no mistake, OEL was a superstar defenseman before his long running injury and has come back to being one. He costs 3.5 mil for 2 more years, less than half of Rielly’s 7.5 and he’s better in every way! If the Leafs want to compete next year, they will get no better defenseman and for no better price!
I have seen so many trade suggestions that begin with Oliver Ekman–Larsson and Bobby McMann….as if trading OEL will not create a big hole in the D corps and as if middle six 20+ goal scoring wingers grow on trees.
Sure, if the offer is right, no player on this poorly constructed team should be off of the trade block but a little more nuance is in order when discussing these trades. For example: the Leafs have 3 bona fide NHL goalies under contract with a 4th netminder nipping at earning a look at the NHL level. Hildeby’s waiver exempt status expires soon which means that of Woll, Stolarz and Hildeby, one of these keepers will need to be moved.
As it is vitally important not to create holes in the lineup when fixing an underperforming team this is obviously the place to start. Hildeby and Woll can carry the mail, while a depth option beyond current 4th stringer Akhtyamov can be found during the off season.
No one will convince me that Maccelli was not a mistake. An error on so many levels. With Cowan, Domi and Robertson already in the fold, what possible logic is there to trading for yet another diminutive left shooting winger?
The next order of business is to determine who the team would like to part ways with.