Reports out this week suggest that the Toronto Maple Leafs have already decided that they are not going to be sellers at all this year. Their objective this year, as has been the case for much of the last decade, is to go in again and make the playoffs.
Not only is the Eastern Conference extremely competitive this season, but the Leafs frankly haven’t been very good at all this year. While a step back was expected after losing Mitch Marner, this far of a dropoff for this long certainly wasn’t.
The Leafs’ decision to go for it feels premature
On top of all of this, the fact that this is being reported this early is extremely premature. The Leafs have only won one game in regulation since January and have allowed six goals against in three of their last five games.
Now, they are only one point outside of a playoff spot, but that math could change down this stretch. The team has seven games remaining before the Olympic Break, and that includes tough games against the Edmonton Oilers, Colorado Avalanche, and Mitch Marner’s return home tonight against the Vegas Golden Knights. While they do have a couple of easier games in there, the team needs to show up and win many of these games down the stretch to secure themselves as a favourite for a playoff spot.
While the Leafs are one point outside of a playoff spot, the Eastern Conference is extremely tight. The difference between themselves at the top of the teams hunting for a spot and the New York Rangers, down in last in the East, is just nine points. In the mix with them are the New Jersey Devils, Washington Capitals, and Florida Panthers, who will all be fighting for a spot.
Now the good news is that the gap upwards is also very tight, with the Tampa Bay Lightning in first in the East sitting seven points ahead of the Leafs. That at least gives them something to push for, but to push their chips in this early and with the standings tight feels very premature.
Could the Leafs make moves towards the NHL Trade Deadline?
Reportedly, the Leafs are not going to entertain offers on their pending free agents, including Scott Laughton and Bobby McMann. While they are unlikely to recoup their costs on Laughton from last year, it would be silly not to at least explore the market on McMann. If a team is willing to spend heavily to acquire his services at the Trade Deadline and the Leafs aren’t interested in paying what he feels he is owed this summer, why wouldn’t they at least explore the option?
On top of that, without any real prospects in the pool currently, and without a first or second-round pick this year and having moved their first-round pick for 2027, the Leafs will be without good young talent to fill out their roster.
It’s hard to get excited about this roster right now. It feels slower, less connected, and frankly less good than in years past. With Auston Matthews only now starting to find his game, William Nylander out for now, and the three new players brought in last year still finding their footing, it’s hard to see the Leafs as a playoff contender this season.
Maybe Brad Treliving knows best
But hope springs eternal. For the first time in a long time, this team is playing actually meaningful hockey in January instead of coasting through the winter because the playoffs are a foregone conclusion. Maybe if they find a groove now and push down the stretch, it will give them the momentum going into the playoffs to finally win more than one round?
Perhaps Brad Treliving knows better than all of us, and maybe he sees a change that neither the eye test nor the analytics are seeing. Maybe the vibes are different around the room this year, and this is going to be Our Year. But this news feels extremely premature with how this team is performing. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Seems to me, for Treliving’s almost entire time as Leafs GM, the team has decided to be all in up until 2, maybe 3 years from now. That is when they’re window of contention ends. They geared several of their contracts such as for Tanev and OEL to have a lower AAV but longer. Some end in 2028 including Matthews and OEL. By then, some of the continuing contracts will cost more than the player can provide because the Leafs don’t expect to contend at that time. It’s all been structured to give these past 2 years and next 2 years the best chance. Every year of these, they must go all in because that’s all they’ve got left! The Leafs need McMann and Laughton NOW!! What they would get at this deadline is not likely to help them in the next 2 years. Beyond, they are not competitive and probably rebuilding. This is the best bottom 6 of the last 10+ years, no doubt about that! This is the best goalie triple over that time. This is the best defense as well, even without Tanev! The Leafs still have 3 out of 4 of their core 4. The difference this season is they don’t have one of their stars to help bail them out in regular season games and Matthews “mysteriously” disappearing until a few Weeks before the Olympics!!