As the playoffs continue without the Toronto Maple Leafs involved, the team searches for a new organizational power structure. At this point in time, the Leafs are at a crossroads, and the list of potential GM or president candidates is being whittled down. Fans are left to envision what the team might look like under the different candidates rumoured to be involved.
Of course, there are a large number of hypotheticals involved in the process. Certainly, philosophies or past connections can be presumed, leading to some interesting speculation. While these might be attached to one candidate or another, the idea has value beyond the individual from whom it stems.
Among the interesting possibilities is what might open up if Mike Gillis is hired. With a strong connection to the Vancouver Canucks, a Gillis hire brings an intriguing opportunity into focus. Let’s take a closer look at Elias Pettersson to see if he might be part of the solution for the Leafs.
Elias Pettersson’s career stats and rise to elite status
A big part of this idea is not only based on Gillis’ ties to the Canucks, but also because of his thoughts on Pettersson. A polarizing player since his draft day, Pettersson has had a confounding career arc.
After being a surprise pick at fifth overall in 2017, it was not long before Pettersson proved the Canucks were wise for drafting him. The next season, he moved up to the SHL, posting huge points totals and leading the charge to a championship. Pettersson scored at over a point per game in the regular season and the playoffs as a teenager.
His next season saw him break out as an NHLer. Through his first four seasons as a Canuck, Pettersson produced at nearly a point per game in each season. His fifth and halfway through his sixth season saw him ascend even higher, perhaps even joining the true elite centres in the world. This all came during a tumultuous time for the Canucks, the team yo-yoing up and down the standings, a storm of chaos brewing inside the locker room.
Perhaps most impressively, Pettersson produced in the playoffs as well, registering 18 points across 17 games in his lone playoff run to that point. Pettersson became known for his offseason training, famously improving his shot to an elite level after being drafted.
What happened to Pettersson?
It all came crashing to a halt midway through 2023–24, Pettersson’s sixth NHL season. After signing a monster extension, Pettersson’s game collapsed. It was noticeable, and the timing relative to the extension did Pettersson no favours. Injuries were floated as a potential explanation; his skating seemed to have diminished.
Naturally, the soap opera of the Canucks is a big angle as well. It seems nearly every season that some huge drama loomed over the Canucks. Many found themselves in the crosshairs, coaches and players alike, as the team fell into infighting.
For Pettersson’s part, he became a central figure, allegedly feuding with fellow star centre J.T. Miller. Bo Horvat was traded prior; Quinn Hughes was traded since. A once-promising core was all but completely dismantled, save for Pettersson.
Since the extension was signed, Pettersson’s game collapsed. The two and a half seasons since have been Pettersson’s worst in the NHL, including a concerning playoff run in 2023–24. His shot volume decreased, along with his shooting percentage, his point totals, and the Canucks quality as a team in general. Despite earning one of the richest contracts in the league, Pettersson instantly began to look like a terrible investment.
Why a Vancouver Canucks change of scenery benefits Pettersson
While it is undeniable that Pettersson has not been at his best since signing his extension, the same could be said for the Canucks as a whole. On its own, a move from the Canucks could be a good thing, as others have performed well after leaving the team. This might be even more applicable given the drama that Pettersson became a central figure in.
For his part, Gillis is on the record for believing in Pettersson as recently as last year. Whether or not Pettersson can regain his form is unclear, or even unlikely, but it would be difficult to imagine that a change of scenery might be beneficial. Perhaps his 100-point form is out of the question, but it might be foolish to discount some sort of bounce back.
Does Toronto make sense?
Herein lies a cognitive dissonance that might have to be suspended, perhaps more nuance than one line can deliver. If part of why Pettersson is underperforming is his inability to handle the pressure of intense media and fan scrutiny, how would entering a sour Toronto market be a help?
The truth is that people can change and grow, and also that these situations might be fundamentally different. Speculations far removed from the situation are only so helpful, but to an extent, someone with a closer eye on the situation might have a greater perspective. With his upside, his high cap hit, his long contract, the complete shift in direction for the Canucks, the changing front office of the organization, what the return might look like, and all the little things in between, there should be some sort of insight into why Pettersson has struggled.
From a simple perspective, the Leafs need to believe in Pettersson with conviction, while also needing the Canucks to believe in him so little that ridding themselves of his contract is seen as a positive on their end. His availability and affordability are imperative given the Leafs lack of futures.
Pettersson’s upside
The upside is tantalizing, picturing the best version of Pettersson in this Leafs lineup. Adding a centre of this magnitude takes a lot of pressure off the organization. With John Tavares aging and Auston Matthews battling a growing list of injuries, there is no feeling of great security. While some prospects might be able to handle bottom-six minutes next season, there is no one who can push Tavares for icetime.
In some ways, the Leafs really missed some speed to their game, and perhaps playmaking in transition was a big part of that. With a top-six consisting of power forwards and goal scorers, a high-end playmaker might really open up the ice for the Leafs. While it is true that the Leafs have some help in this area, the best version of Pettersson is another level. Easton Cowan’s growth should help here; perhaps Matias Maccelli can find more consistency, but these might not be sufficient.
What would it take?
Here comes another tricky part, as figuring out what it might take to pry Pettersson from the Canucks is unclear. As a premium player, Pettersson would be unaffordable for the Leafs. A rebuilding team like the Canucks might ask for multiple high-end futures, perhaps three first-round picks or some equivalent.
Simply put, the Leafs cannot afford sure things of this magnitude. They will need to find creative ways to find value, including taking chances on players who have issues, to some extent. With Fraser Minten and two of their next three first-round picks already out the door, the Leafs should be very cautious in trading away more of their futures. The path to success likely comes from getting younger.
The interesting piece surrounding these teams is Morgan Rielly. Speculation on whether or not Rielly would consider any move is one layer. To which teams is another degree of uncertainty. The rationale behind the Canucks is that Rielly is from Vancouver. Perhaps more of a mentor role on a younger team is a better fit for Rielly as well. Nothing can happen without Rielly signing off on it.
In this context, Rielly would offset a good deal of salary, which might be beneficial to both sides. The Leafs might not have to get Pettersson’s salary retained, which the Canucks might have little interest in doing. It is difficult to assert how much value would be required to balance the deal, even if the framework of the deal is presumed. As neither team currently has a GM, there might not be an answer yet either.
It could be that the Canucks have a mandate to avoid a multi-year rebuild. With their ownership’s vision over the years, this would not be entirely surprising. Given the number of young players added to the lineup, a veteran presence might be seen as beneficial. Rielly is a consummate professional who always represents his organization well, and his offensive abilities might help some of the Canucks young forwards to produce.
The risk involved
To some extent, the Leafs risk a lot in acquiring Pettersson. Beyond the term and cap cost of his contract, Pettersson represents many of the things the Leafs have tried to distance themselves from.
A skill-first forward with an unconventional personality, Pettersson is also an expensive forward. Obviously, Brad Treliving is no longer the GM who championed the abolition of the core four, but the concept might not be on the table regardless.
With growing parity in the league and new talents beginning to shift the tides, some theorize that the spirit of a team will be as important as its overall skill. The Leafs continue to search for answers here, and Pettersson would not seem to represent a change. There is certainly hope that some answers can come from within, with Cowan joining Matthew Knies as core players who might have a more abrasive attitude and approach.
The worst-case scenario is that Pettersson never bounces back, and the Leafs are left with a highly overpaid middle-six forward. Worse still would be a negative impact on the locker room and on the team’s general disposition. It could take up a lot of the Leafs cap, which at this point is their primary means of improving the team.
Is Pettersson worth it?
Regardless of who the GM is, the Leafs will have to be creative in upgrading their roster. Acquiring Pettersson is a prime example of that aggressiveness, and it goes without saying that a high degree of due diligence is required before attempting such a risky manoeuvre. The process is sound, given the Leafs circumstances, but which players the Leafs choose to take risks on is the key.
