A miracle has happened for the Toronto Maple Leafs. They have won the NHL Draft Lottery, securing the first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. Star forward Gavin McKenna headlines this draft with solid players like Ivar Stenberg, Chase Reid, and Caleb Malhotra following him. As awesome as it is that the Leafs won the lottery, one can argue that the team does not need a first overall pick at this moment.
The Leafs have plenty of star power in Auston Matthews and William Nylander. Not to mention that McKenna might not be a solid NHLer for a few years to come. Should the Leafs trade down and acquire a potential top defensive prospect? Or should they take the star forward?
2026 NHL Draft defensive prospects
There is a positive side to trading the first overall pick. The Leafs would acquire multiple strong assets back, get a defensive prospect they need, and remain in win-now mode. There are plenty of strong defencemen in the upcoming draft who could fit in well in the Leafs system. If Mats Sundin and John Chayka decide to trade down and acquire a defenceman, they would have their eyes on one of Chase Reid, Carson Carels, Daxon Rudolph, or Keaton Verhoeff.
The most significant benefit of trading the first overall pick would be the return. If the Leafs were to move this pick, there is no doubt that they would receive top-end assets back. For the first overall pick, the Leafs would get a first-rounder in return (obviously), potentially a great prospect or solid young player as well. Maybe even more, depending on how badly a team wants that pick.
The last time a first overall pick was traded was way back in 2003. Here, the Florida Panthers traded the first overall pick and a third-rounder to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for Mikael Samuelsson, a second-rounder, and the third overall pick. The Penguins went on to draft Marc-Andre Fleury, while the Panthers selected Nathan Horton. I would not call this a bad move by the Panthers, as they did have Roberto Luongo in net. However, in the big picture, Pittsburgh won the deal, even though Horton was a solid player.
The upside of keeping McKenna
There is absolutely no doubt that having this pick puts a massive amount of pressure on both Chayka and Sundin. Both just entered the Leafs’ front office and now have a significant decision on their hands. If they want to play it safe, I say they should keep the first overall pick. They can select Gavin McKenna and gain an awesome young forward. The only problem is that the Leafs don’t necessarily need McKenna, at least not right now.
This team is in win-now mode. As long as Matthews and Nylander are here, this team needs to try to win. McKenna will be great and all, but he will not help the team immediately. There is a chance that he will take another year in college, which would not help the Leafs at all next season. After that, he would likely take at least a year or two to adapt to the NHL level. By that point, Matthews could be set to hit free agency.
Either way, McKenna would be the top prospect in the Leafs organization. This team currently lacks good prospects, so that would be a bright side of selecting him. Outside of Easton Cowan, McKenna would be the only other solid young prospect. Chayka is in a tough position to start his tenure in Toronto. Should they select McKenna? Or should they try to move down one or two spots like the Panthers did in 2003?
First overall pick trade value
I do see one franchise as being a good trade partner for the first overall. That would be the Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks are absolutely desperate for a player like McKenna. Vancouver did everything right to get McKenna except win the lottery. They finished dead last in the NHL with 25 wins and a whopping 58 points. Their leading point scorer was Elias Pettersson, who only registered 51 points across 74 games.
Trading with the Canucks would clearly involve the third overall pick in the upcoming draft. The first overall would go to Vancouver, while the third overall, plus more, should go to Toronto. I think if the Leafs were to make this trade, they should try to target a young defenceman. My eyes would be on Zeev Buium. If the Leafs worked out some deal to acquire him and the third overall pick, I think that would be a very interesting move.
If this trade were to happen, I think the Leafs would go down the forward route with the third overall selection. If they land Buium, they would be free to select Stenberg, assuming that he is available. This would absolutely bolster the Leafs organization with two amazing young players. Even if the Leafs could not land Buium, they could target defenceman Tom Willander or even forward Liam Ohgren. Both have great upside.
I know this would likely never happen, but I think it is wise to look at both sides of keeping versus trading the first overall pick. In the end, I do believe the Leafs select McKenna, potentially finding a replacement for Mitch Marner.
