Auston Matthews is looking to reach new heights this season with a modern goal-scoring record within reach. Currently sitting at 57 goals in 67 games played, Matthews still has 14 games remaining to see just how high he can go with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The winner of the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy of 2020–21 and 2021–22, Matthews is on track to blow past his personal best of 60 goals scored two years ago. Last season, he potted just 40 goals, a big dip from his record season and 24 behind the league leader in Connor McDavid‘s 64.
Matthews went from being ranked first in the league with 60 goals one season, to being in a six-way tie for 14th in the scoring race with 40, including tying with fellow teammate William Nylander. Incredibly, the NHL having 19 total 40-goal scorers in a year is quite the feat.
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Matthews is back at the top
After a “down” season—if one can even label a 40-goal season as a down year—Matthews is finding himself in a league of his own this time around. When Matthews potted 60 goals, Leon Draisaitl trailed closely behind with 55 goals of his own. Right now, as Matthews is sitting with 57 goals, the next closest player is Sam Reinhart who has just 48.
The crazy thing about Matthews’ season though, is that he’s been in the 50-goal range for nearly a month. He was the first player to reach 50 goals this year and did so back on February 21 against his home-state team, the Arizona Coyotes, where he scored his 50th and 51st goals.
Toronto’s power play is slowing Matthews down
In a bit of a drought as of late, Matthews has only scored six goals in his previous 13 games, where he was held without a goal in eight of them. A big part of this is due to the Maple Leafs’ power play not operating at an acceptable level. Over a quarter of Matthews’ goals this year have come on the power play where he currently has 15.
This puts him in a three-way tie for third with Brock Boeser and Valeri Nichushkin. Ahead of him is Draisaitl in second with 17, and way ahead is Reinhart with 27. If the Leafs’ power play wasn’t so putrid lately, Matthews could have already been well past the 60-goal mark.
On the season, Toronto’s power play is ranked fifth in the league, operating at a 26% clip. However, up until February 21 when Matthews reached 50 goals, it was ranked second, at 28.8%. From February 22 until now, the Leafs’ man advantage has been scoring at a 13.9% clip, good for 28th in the league.
Modern records still in sight
Regardless of how things have gone for himself and for the Leafs lately, Matthews still has plenty of runway left to put his name in the history books.
In the salary cap era, the goal scoring record was set by Alex Ovechkin back in 2007–08 with his 65 goals. Only five players have reached the 60-goal mark with Ovechkin’s 65 leading the group, McDavid had 64 last year with David Pastrnak close behind with 61. Matthews of course had his 60-goal campaign the year prior, and then you’d have to go all the way back to 2011–12 for Steven Stamkos‘ 60-goal season. That’s the whole list.
So barring an injury or complete collapse by Matthews, the NHL is set to see three consecutive seasons with at least one player reaching 60 goals for the first time in the salary cap era.
For Matthews to beat Ovechkin, he needs to score just nine more goals over 14 games. That’s a goal rate of 0.64 goals per game, a much lower rate than his current pace of 0.85.
In Toronto’s latest game versus no other than Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals, Matthews scored two goals in the game—the first time he had a multi-goal game since February 21. It’s hard to script better drama than this, as Matthews found the back of the net twice in a game against the very player he is chasing.
If that doesn’t build momentum for Matthews’ end-of-season push to set hockey history, I don’t know what will.
A quick numbers crunch
As mentioned, the disparity between the Leafs’ power play before and after February 21 is massive. An arbitrary cutoff date, yes, but a jarring difference nonetheless. Here are Matthews’ scoring paces over the whole season. Data from NaturalStatTrick.com.
| State | Goals | Goals/GP |
|---|---|---|
| 5v5 | 31 | 0.46 |
| Power Play | 15 | 0.22 |
| All | 57 | 0.85 |
There are 14 games left on the Leafs’ schedule. Given that most of any hockey game is played at 5v5, assuming Matthew’s pace stays consistent, that equates to 6.4 goals. Rounding down, that’d net him 63. If the power play pace also stays the same, then he’d find an extra three goals. That’d be enough to beat Ovechkin’s record by one goal.
Now looking at all situations with empty nets, overtime goals, etc. all included, then the 0.85 G/GP rate clocks out at 11.9 goals. That’s close enough to 12 that it can be rounded up for argument’s sake. That would then be a nice season total of 69 goals. The last time a player scored 69 goals in a season was Mario Lemieux back in 1995–96.
The hockey world is watching
In plain terms, Matthews’ beating Ovechkin, while not a certainty, is very much realistic. All that’s left to do is for Matthews and his supporting cast to execute to get the job done.
Photo by Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire
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