The Toronto Maple Leafs lines have been in a blender all year. Other than a first line that includes Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, head coach Sheldon Keefe has yet to find any consistency in his lineups.
And with just 14 games left until Round 1, it’s getting to a point where the lack of continuity is a problem.
On defence, T.J. Brodie was a healthy scratch for the first time in a Leafs uniform on Wednesday. He’s seen his play fall off a cliff this year. Simon Benoit was no better as his replacement, directly leading to two Washington Capitals goals. Seven defencemen have played over 500 minutes for Toronto this year, and that’s not counting newly acquired Ilya Lyubushkin and Joel Edmundson.
The forwards are just as chaotic. With Marner hurt and day-to-day, Matthews has played alongside Max Domi, Pontus Holmberg, Bobby McMann, William Nylander and Matthew Knies. John Tavares has bounced between centring the second and third lines as Keefe tries to balance out the lineup, while Nick Robertson is sixth on the team in points per 60 minutes, but could be watching the playoffs from the press box.
You’d think this late in the year the goal would be building chemistry and momentum for the postseason. But the only consistency for the Leafs recently has been their inconsistency.
It’s impossible to predict the Leafs’ forward lines
Assuming Marner is back for Game 1, the only certainty in the whole lineup is he will play with Matthews. The duo are one of hockey’s best, outscoring their opponents 42–24 while playing together on the season. Their most common linemate has been Matthew Knies, but Max Domi has been playing extremely well with Matthews since Marner got hurt.
However, Domi has been the second or third line centre all year. If he moves to the wing, either Pontus Holmberg or David Kampf will have to centre the third line. Kampf owns a 44 xGF% at 5v5 according to Natural Stat Trick, and Holmberg has no playoff experience.
We don’t even know who the second line centre will be. Bertuzzi and Nylander should be the wingers, but even that isn’t set in stone. Will Keefe keep Tavares on the third line, or move him back and load up the top-six? Last postseason, he loaded up the second line against Tampa Bay before trying to even out the lines against Florida.
If we assume—and it’s a heavy assumption—that some combo of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Knies, Tavares, and Bertuzzi make up the top-six, then it leaves six spots for nine guys.
Domi, Kampf, and Calle Jarnkrok are locks to be in the lineup. Where they’ll play is another question, but they’ll play.
Recently re-signed Bobby McMann has been a revelation, and he’ll have to play his way out of the lineup at this point. Connor Dewar has played every game since being acquired at the deadline, so he seems like a good bet to play on the fourth line.
Remember when Kyle Clifford got in the Game 1 lineup against Tampa Bay in 2022 and immediately threw a dirty hit and got suspended? I think Ryan Reaves sneaks his way into game one this year, mostly just to fight someone. After that, who knows.
That leaves Robertson, Holmberg and Noah Gregor on the outside looking in.
We could see basically any combination of the forwards playing together, and Keefe has even split up Matthews and Marner in the postseason before when things weren’t going well.
It’s no secret Keefe is a tinkerer, but he seems to be hitting all-new levels this year.
The questionable state of Toronto’s defence
As mentioned, Brodie was scratched on Wednesday for the first time as a Maple Leaf. Coming into the year, he was the Leafs’ number-one shutdown defenceman and formed the first pair with Morgan Rielly.
Because of Brodie’s fall-off, the defensive pairs are also a mess. It doesn’t help the Leafs employ six left-handed defencemen and just two righties, either.
Timothy Liljegren and Lyubushkin will play simply because they shoot right. Rielly and Jake McCabe will play, they’ve both earned it. Would Toronto send a third-round pick for Joel Edmundson to sit him? Would they keep Brodie and his $4.5M cap hit benched, after how reliable he’s been in the past? Simon Benoit has a higher xGF% than either of them but has lost his spot in the lineup recently. Is Mark Giordano an option at this point?
The first pair might be solidified, at least. Since Lyubushkin was traded for, he’s played the vast majority of his minutes with Rielly. The pair owns a 56 xGF% share at 5v5, again per Natural Stat Trick, so maybe that’s a duo for the playoffs.
The bottom-four is a crapshoot. Someone will have to play their offside, probably Brodie or McCabe. Liljegren hasn’t had a solidified partner all year, so he and whoever he plays with will have to form some chemistry fast. Brodie and McCabe struggle together, but so do Brodie and Liljegren. Honestly, Brodie struggles with everyone.
The playoffs shouldn’t be a time for experimenting, but the Leafs just don’t have enough time left to figure out the pairs before then. They have to try combinations of Liljegren, McCabe, Brodie, Benoit and Edmundson (is Giordano close to being healthy?) until something sticks, and who knows how long that could take.
So what can the Leafs do
This isn’t exactly uncharted territory for Toronto and Sheldon Keefe. He’s not scared of shaking things up, especially when he feels the team needs a spark. Last postseason he jumbled the forward lines like crazy against the Panthers.
But in the past, there was something to fall back on. Last postseason it was Bunting-Matthews-Marner and Tavares-O’Reilly-Nylander. On defence, it’s been Rielly-Brodie for years.
Now it feels like there’s nothing but experiments. Throwing combos at the wall and seeing what sticks is the only option left for a team trying to win a Stanley Cup, and that’s not a good thing.
